DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 -5 cold core 850 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's hard to tell by looking at the latest RAP precipitation forecast, but it shows almost .7 inches .9 inches of precipitation ......after what should be a changeover to snow. It will be interesting to watch this all play out, and fascinating to look back and see where we missed it and where we hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I see the 40km NAM has really started to emphasize the relative minumum on the lee side of the mtns. I really hope that's incorrect, would suck to have snow on all sides of me I'm concerned myself being that I'm in the Northern Foothills the models the past 24hrs have been showing the limited moisture for my area . Could just be a bias of the models but cannot discount the fact we might not get in on the action. I also can see us being in a sweet spot with upslope snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's hard to tell by looking at the latest RAP precipitation forecast, but it shows almost .7 inches .9 inches of precipitation ......after what should be a changeover to snow. It will be interesting to watch this all play out, and fascinating to look back and see where we missed it and where we hit it. It's definitely getting juicier with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It appears we are in the weenie panic phase just ahead of the event. That tells me everything is right on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm concerned myself being that I'm in the Northern Foothills the models the past 24hrs have been showing the limited moisture for my area . Could just be a bias of the models but cannot discount the fact we might not get in on the action. I also can see us being in a sweet spot with upslope snows. Yeah, I've been noticing that scary trend as well. We don't get upslope snow, we get downslope, which rarely ever happens. Most maps I've seen from our mets have us in the sweet spot, but that nasty dry area just into the foothills is really unnerving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 500 is right where it was forecast to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Promet Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 They aren't issued for rarity or non-rarity. They are issued for impact on an area. This case being a heavy wet snow falling fast. I get it and the part about rarity not being the important thing, but AL EMA is asking people not to drive and schools are letting out early unexpectedly, so its "heavy and high impact" for MS/AL and if it hits Atlanta for them too even if its not heavy compared to mountains or a northern city. But I know what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Surface temps cooling a bit earlier in Atlanta but 700/850 low tracks still seem too north which would generally dryslot the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Surface temps cooling a bit earlier in Atlanta but 700/850 low tracks still seem too north which would generally dryslot the metro im thinking the majority skips the city as well...how far north of the city do you think the bulk of the snow will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Classic Jeremy! I know sitting here in the southern foothills, I am feeling the oh no factor. It appears we are in the weenie panic phase just ahead of the event. That tells me everything is right on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 im thinking the majority skips the city as well...how far north of the city do you think the bulk of the snow will be? The majority might but I still feel we'll have a decent event with an inch laying around. Black ice will be our big threat overnight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAP STILL trending north. 18z run just started and just at hour ONE you can compare it to 17z and see the 500 low slightly farther north. If you go back and compare to the 12z at the same time, the shift is pretty significant. EDIT: Don't really see much difference at Hour 2, however, at least compared to 17z run -- maybe just initialization. Still, the trend from this morning is still clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The NAM had GSO at 44F at 18z and it was actually 39F at 18z. Hopefully the triad can start a little earlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This lines up with my thoughts at 11am this morning in this post: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38874-january-17th-18th-winter-storm-observations/?p=2011660 As of 150pm, I am still not sure everything will work out per earlier thoughts down further south. There is a significant warm nose being driven westward around the NC/SC line far back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The NAM had GSO at 44F at 18z and it was actually 39F at 18z. Hopefully the triad can start a little earlier! It's looking like boundary layer issues shouldn't be a problem here, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The majority might but I still feel we'll have a decent event with an inch laying around. Black ice will be our big threat overnight though. I've been dry slotted with every snow for the last 4 years, and all you can hope for is some moisture dragging thougfh at the bitter end It happens, but with warm ground there won't be enough rate to stick to more that car tops probably, unless there's bitter cold coming to flash freeze...but yeah, black ice looks like a good bet late. But who knows...the snow is building down back in Ala. and it the de snowalizers on the border are on the fritz...maybe T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 KTRI dropped to 35F the last hour. Wind advisory is now up for all of the MRX CWA. ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THISEVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINDADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THISEVENING.* EVENT...WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE CAUTION THIS MORNING WHEN DRIVING AROUND THE FOOTHILLS. ADDITIONALLY...THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOW CAN REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO WITH LITTLE WARNING. WSW now includes "blowing snow" as a hazard. Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Those North and West of the low will come out the best and the amounts will depend on the axis of the deformation band and the timing of the onset. RAP still seems to indicate the sweet spot(s) will be the mountains (of course) and the NW Piedmont inculding INT and GSO. As you move eastward from Burlinton to Raleigh, they could also be in a loolipop area depending on the factors I mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I have not been using this as a real guide for this storm, but the changeover was about an hour slower East of the mountains on the 15z 4km RPM, and the result was a significant decrease in snow totals. New run is going now.... Here that accum map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I have not been using this as a real guide for this storm, but the changeover was about an hour slower East of the mountains on the 15z 4km RPM, and the result was a significant decrease in snow totals. New run is going now.... Here that accum map: Yikes...not liking that. I'm guessing this due to the further north track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GSO has dropped 8 degrees since 8:00. It now 40 in GSO, 39 at INT. Doesnt look like temps will be the problem much longer in the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah, the short-range model trending is clear -- upper level features inching north making it more difficult for cold air to turn over the precip to the immdieate north of ULL -- that would, unfortunately, mean the I-85/US74 corridor west of Charlotte I have not been using this as a real guide for this storm, but the changeover was about an hour slower East of the mountains on the 15z 4km RPM, and the result was a significant decrease in snow totals. New run is going now.... Here that accum map: RPM snow.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yikes...not liking that. I'm guessing this due to the further north track? Pushing the moisture right up the spine of the apps if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Could a met explain a little more in-depth why the foothills are really getting the shaft on most of the hi-res models? That's not an imby question, I just want to know from a meteorlogical standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah, the short-range model trending is clear -- upper level features inching north making it more difficult for cold air to turn over the precip to the immdieate north of ULL -- that would, unfortunately, mean the I-85/US74 corridor west of Charlotte Is it further north or just stronger and taking a more neutral tilt? Either way it certainly doesn't look good for my back yard as the northern part of that low goes right over CLT. I'm still on the side of just wait and see. Models are still models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I have not been using this as a real guide for this storm, but the changeover was about an hour slower East of the mountains on the 15z 4km RPM, and the result was a significant decrease in snow totals. New run is going now.... Here that accum map: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=85208'>RPM snow.png Not bad, widespread 2-4" with pockets a little higher. Supposedly the RPM did fairly well with the NE event around New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Still closed and has not taken on a negative tilt yet http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_meso_analysis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like RAH thinks everything is still on track. NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...THROUGH TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OFSIGNIFICANT BANDED SNOWFALL OVER NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF NC EARLYTHIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE... LOCATED OVER NE GA EARLY THISAFTERNOON... WILL CONTINUE A STEADY ENE TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL ZONEACROSS SE NC. THE NAM/GFS/RAP/SREF MEAN HAVE EXHIBITED EXCELLENTCONTINUITY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS REGARDING TRACK AND TIMING... ANDHAVE SHOWN A VERY SMALL SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE EXTENT OF COLDER AIR.DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG -- ESPECIALLYALOFT WITH HIGH OMEGA FOCUSED IN THE CRUCIAL -12C TO -20C LAYERALOFT -- BUT QUICK-HITTING. AN INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX EXPECTEDTO BE ROUGHLY OVER THE SRN NC FOOTHILLS AT 00Z WILL MOVE NE THROUGHCENTRAL NC BEFORE EXITING NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY AROUND 07Z. THISIS IN TANDEM WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE... MIDLEVEL DCVA AND A RISE/FALL COUPLET OF AROUND +/- 200 METERS...STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION... AND DEEP MOIST ISENTROPICUPGLIDE. THE FACT THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY UPONARRIVAL IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLING IN THAT THE RESULTANT RAPID MASSFIELD ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIABLE TO SIGNIFICANT AND QUICKLY BOLSTERASCENT AND HEIGHTEN THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BANDING.MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL GENERALLY NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH VERY HIGHPW (OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND A STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROMTHE GULF... ALTHOUGH THE INCOMING DRY SLOT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE LOWWILL BE WORTH MONITORING AND MAY LIMIT WINTRY TOTALS IN THESOUTHEAST CWA (SEE BELOW). HOW FAST THE COLD AIR ARRIVES ESPECIALLYALOFT REMAINS A CONCERN... ALTHOUGH THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ANDARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT... BOOSTING CONFIDENCE IN THEIR TIMING OFTHE ANTICIPATED THERMAL CHANGES.THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE WRN AND NRNPIEDMONT... FROM HIGH ROCK AND BADIN LAKES... ACROSS THE I-40 ANDHIGHWAY 64 CORRIDORS BETWEEN (AND INCLUDING) THE TRIAD AND THETRIANGLE... UP TO KERR LAKE AND LAKE GASTON... VERY ROUGHLYFOLLOWING THE I-85 CORRIDOR TO THE NW... ALIGNED WITH THE AREA OFSTRONGEST DEFORMATION ALOFT. KEY TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM 23ZUNTIL AROUND 07Z WITH A QUICK EXIT SOON THEREAFTER. SREFPROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A 70+ PERCENTCHANCE OF SNOWFALL RATES OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THEPIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COASTAL PLAIN FROM MID EVENING UNTIL THE EARLYOVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THESE RATES AND THE TIMING OF A FEW HOURS OFHEAVY BANDED SNOW (STARTING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX)... STORM TOTALACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES IN THIS AREA WITH ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTALSLOOK QUITE REASONABLE. BORDERING THE WARNING AREA... STILL EXPECT ANINCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS... WITH A LITTLESLUSH ON ROADS POSSIBLE.SOUTH AND EAST OF HERE... INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE AND CLINTON... AQUICK BURST OF MAINLY SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG DYNAMIC COOLINGTHROUGH THE COLUMN AS THE LOW ALOFT PASSES BY... BUT THE WINDOW OFOPPORTUNITY WILL BE VERY SHORT AS AMOUNTS/DURATION WILL BE GREATLYLIMITED BY THE MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT ARRIVAL WITH NOTABLE DRYINGABOVE THE -5C LEVEL... SUPPRESSING CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT... PLUSBOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THISEVENT... NOT DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING UNTIL PRECIP IS NEARLY GONE.EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS.A SIDE NOTE: MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROGS ARE QUITE INTERESTING...INCLUDING THE 12 KM NAM WHICH INDICATES 850-500 MB VALUES OF 5.5-6.0C/KM TRAVERSING THE CWA... JUST WNW OF THE 850 MB LOW TRACK...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. AND RECENT RAP RUNS TAKE THE 700-400MB LAPSE RATES (WHICH CAPTURES THE MIXED PHASE REGION ALOFT) UP TO7.0 C/KM OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. CONSIDERING THISPOSSIBILITY FOR UPRIGHT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VIGOROUS DYNAMICLIFT... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN SNOW BANDS ARE CERTAINLYPOSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH LIKELY TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTAT THIS TIME.STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL WITH THE TIGHTENINGMSLP GRADIENT AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING FREQUENTGUSTS TO 25-40 KTS (ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS MAY BE AUGMENTED BY APOSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE). EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25MPH WITH SPORADIC GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH FROM LATE AFTERNOON UNTILAROUND 1-2 AM.TEMPS SHOULD STEADILY DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ANDNIGHT. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Dry slotting here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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