Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 After closer inspection..............of the RAP..............I noticed that from 3ish till about 8 or 8:30 the RAP has KTRI in 30-35 dbz's the entire time. Anyone know how much of this would be snow? I wonder why this is so different than the hi-res NAM and other higher resolution models? How valuable or reliable is the RAP and how much credence should we in east TN pay to it? Looking for that ray of hope here! Thanks in advance for any imput. Well, just based on what I've learned from people that are way more knowledgeable than I am, the RAP is by far the better model to be clinging to at this range. It updates every hour and is very high resolution. The trend it is showing for east TN is encouraging. I'm trying to not be a weenie here, but I'm throwing the NAM solution out at this point. The shiznit is going to go down here in a few hours, get ready my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 For Charlotte, NAM and GFS MOS surface wet-bulbs aren't supportive of snow (wet-bulb higher than 35 degrees) until around midnight, when the precip is basically done. Also, Canadian RGEM and GFS ptype are all rain. Raw GFS sounding also too warm. A changeover to snow for Charlotte appears to be limited to the NAM, HI-Res, and Rapid Update models. We shall see, but I've seen MOS perform quite well in these marginal cases....I have to adjust my CLT forecast from dusting to 1 inch....to 0-1 inch....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well, just based on what I've learned from people that are way more knowledgeable than I am, the RAP is by far the better model to be clinging to at this range. It updates every hour and is very high resolution. The trend it is showing for east TN is encouraging. I'm trying to not be a weenie here, but I'm throwing the NAM solution out at this point. The shiznit is going to go down here in a few hours, get ready my friend. Hate to be the miser to a fellow Tennessee weenie, but this is hot off the press from MRX: INTENSE LITTLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW HEADED TOWARD THE AREA.EXPECT THE CENTER TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WITHPRECIPITATION STREAMING TO THE NORTH. CIRCULATION AROUND LOW WILLALSO TRY TO BRING UP SOME WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...THAT WILL MEANA MIXED PRECIP RAIN...SLEET...SNOW AT TIMES UNTIL LOW GETS FARTHERTO THE EAST. GAP CURRENTLY SEEN BETWEEN RAIN IN E TN AND SNOW INFARTHER WEST. THIS GAP IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE...ESPECIALLY FOR THENORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THIS IS WHERE THE MIXED PRECIP IS MOSTLIKELY. FARTHER SOUTH...THE GAP WILL BE SLOWER TO FILL...AND SO FORKCHA THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP STARTING NOW FOR A FEW HOURS.WITH THE MIXING OF SLEET...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONSA SLIGHT AMOUNT OVER THE AREA...BUT STILL KEEPING WARNINGS ANDADVISORIES INTACT. Of course, sleet is just a myth, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Lol yes and no. I like reading it but also know from experience how things go in ga for snow, upper level lows, cold chasing precip etc. I am hopeful but it's hard she. It's pouring now but 52 out side. Even a quick hit of a couple hours snow would beat last year. Ps sorry about ur back. I have back issues at times but nothing like what you are going through Well, if it's any help to you, it's dropped to 44 and a good stout cold wind is blowing the pine tops in circles now. Nothing like the last week or so. Feels like, and looks like winter again Good luck. I always think you're in the sweet spot for anything coming. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I saw the RPM it shows shows snow starting all around CLT between six and eight and then goes bonkers after that. Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hate to be the miser to a fellow Tennessee weenie, but this is hot off the press from MRX: Of course, sleet is just a myth, right? Heh, it wouldn't be east TN if we didn't have some warm air to contend with. Bring on the sleet, preferably of the thunder variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/ Keep in mind the NAM is a short range high resolution model too and is currently run with 12 km horizontal resolution and with 1 hour temporal resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well, just based on what I've learned from people that are way more knowledgeable than I am, the RAP is by far the better model to be clinging to at this range. It updates every hour and is very high resolution. The trend it is showing for east TN is encouraging. I'm trying to not be a weenie here, but I'm throwing the NAM solution out at this point. The shiznit is going to go down here in a few hours, get ready my friend. Well, local mets were saying changeover here at KTRI b/w 1-3. The good dbz's on the RAP don't even occur until after 3 and last until after 8. But other models show snow only lasting for an hour or so...................i am beyond confused at this point. One thing I do notice, is that even though the dbz's look pretty good, the actual amount of liquid equivilent coming from the clouds never gets over .1 in any hour from 3 till 8. If snow, it wouldn't necessarily fall fast enough for a BIG accumulation. Perhaps 1-3 is a pretty good call based on that. I guess it's just going to be a waiting game to see what is falling out of the sky and then looking at radar as it changes to see how long it might last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Heh, it wouldn't be east TN if we didn't have some warm air to contend with. Bring on the sleet, preferably of the thunder variety. Typically, when lows take this path and WAA occurs, it manages to make it to Greene County and then taper off. This is a crude explanation, but it seems to enter through the valley around Chattanooga and follow the Apps northeastward. This occurred during both major snowstorms in 2009-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If this graphic by James Spann holds true, it could be nice for parts of NGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Watch the RAP here and watch how long the low stays closed. Do the loop http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=rap&cycle=07&area=namer&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 16 RAP still show great Helicity around WNC mountain, N/S foothills east to CLT and north into the Piedmont, upstate SC from 20-01 Thunder snow ?? http://imgur.com/VqgeH'> http://imgur.com/bunHJ'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 VALID 171738Z - 172245Z SUMMARY...MODERATE RAIN/MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR EXPECTED. DISCUSSION...A RATHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY WET SNOW IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS 500 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NRN/CNTRL AL. AS THIS LOW TRACKS E/NEWD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MORNING GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT PRONOUNCED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC COOLING /AOB THE 700 MB LEVEL/ IS OCCURRING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DEEP NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND FREEZING. IN ADDITION...WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEING CENTERED NEAR 500 MB WHERE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO LARGE DENDRITES WITH OPTIMAL LIQUID WATER CONTENT. THIS SHOULD FAVOR A BAND OF SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1-2 IN/HR...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY 09Z SREF PROBABILITIES. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF FAR NERN TN INTO FAR SRN WV AND EXPAND EWD ACROSS SWRN VA/FAR WRN NC BY LATE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 14Z HRRR total snowfall over 15 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You can certainly see some bright banding near I-65 over NAL. Is that sleet or heavier snow I wonder? http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Novice here and I have a question. Does the fact that radar returns at 1 PM both east and west of the center of circulation seem to be increasing mean that the system is increasing in strength? Does it mean that it is any more or less likely increase and prolong precipitaion through NE Georgia, Western NC, and Upstate SC? Thank You. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 And the suns out here. Interesting dynamics, as per usual T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Wow the model is surely excited in NE AL. 14Z HRRR total snowfall over 15 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Novice here and I have a question. Does the fact that radar returns at 1 PM both east and west of the center of circulation seem to be increasing mean that the system is increasing in strength? Does it mean that it is any more or less likely increase and prolong precipitaion through NE Georgia, Western NC, and Upstate SC? Thank You. The system is getting stronger. The precip should be there, but it's going to move along at a fairly steady pace through the day. Bigger question is when/if changeover to snow occurs (depending on how far south you are) and how much precip is left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looking at Dual Pol data, most of whats falling in AL is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Wow the model is surely excited in NE AL. The spot of 10+ is lookout mountain. It really wants to bury them, but that's still impressive even if you divide by 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Promet Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Strange to see an SPC meso disc for snow in the mountains where its a less rare occurence than in MS/AL/GA where they don't put one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Strange to see an SPC meso disc for snow in the mountains where its a less rare occurence than in MS/AL/GA where they don't put one out. SPC discussion would be more geared toward strong events (heavy snow in this case) as opposed to whether it is rare or not for a given location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Strange to see an SPC meso disc for snow in the mountains where its a less rare occurence than in MS/AL/GA where they don't put one out. They aren't issued for rarity or non-rarity. They are issued for impact on an area. This case being a heavy wet snow falling fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 does the strong snow band moving through bham have potential to hold together as it moves into north ga? im hearing mixed opinions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest RAP model shows heavier precipitation over most of Northeast Tennessee from about 3 o'clock to about 830, some pretty impressive returns. It's hard for me to believe that if this changes to snow in the next two hours we don't end up with at least several inches in the Tri-Cities. Any other thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 For Atlanta and North Georgia, you can view the HHC Dual Pol view of Atlanta's radar. Note... the light blue is dry snow. Darker blue is heavy snow. http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel4/4_ffc_hhc.php Apparently my other radar computer is not working right now so my other GRL3 loops are not workin... of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I see the 40km NAM has really started to emphasize the relative minumum on the lee side of the mtns. I really hope that's incorrect, would suck to have snow on all sides of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest RAP model shows heavier precipitation over most of Northeast Tennessee from about 3 o'clock to about 830, some pretty impressive returns. It's hard for me to believe that if this changes to snow in the next two hours we don't end up with at least several inches in the Tri-Cities. Any other thoughts? The RAP has seemingly trended toward a nice deformation bend setting up shop over NE Tennessee as some of the best dynamics occur. A north/northwest wind can be a great ally in an event such as this. I remember a few times in which a deformation band moved out but left behind a trailing band of snow that was enhanced by north or northwest winds. This specific scenario is likely different than those in the past, but the concept is similar. For what it's worth, I've read nothing but praise for the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Been following the HRRR model closely last 2 years, it is very talented at estimating radar...I rarely look at the RAP. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrraviation/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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