dsaur Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks pretty good Chris. thanks for posting that. That would help, wouldn't it Love a ULL because you just don't know, even when you think you know Cooling off nicely here, and I've had 3 inches for the front...hope the ULL adds a bunch on top. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Burger, Hey man, appreciate all you do for this board with your pbp's. If we are giving our snow up, I hope we can give it to you. Looks like you will be very close, if not IN the best lift for this thing for a couple of hours. Good luck. Thanks man hopefully you can get a surprise. While I'm probably overly optimistic about my area I've said since we started tracking there would be big winners and big losers. It's hard to figure out which side of the line you're on until it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Used the model extraction tool from wxcaster.com. Don't rely on the models ability to get the PType correct. Look at the actual sounding data and make your own determination. A lot of times, intense dynamics with near 0C temps can result in really heavy snow, but it would show up as "liquid" as the ptype. Ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Loop that I believe is based off the RPM...usually works well http://www.wdef.com/content/weather/mapsRegionalFutureCast.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like from what I can see things are shifting E of the central & southern mnts. & into the piedmont of NC. The n mnts & spots with higher elevation may do alright. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS ONCE THE LOW ARRIVES...HOW FAST WILL PRECIPTRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW...AND WHERE WILL THE HEAVIEST SNOWACCUM BE. THE 12Z NAM LINES UP WITH THE HI-RES WRF AND OTHER HI-RESMODELS IN BRINGING THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACRS THE CWFA IN THE 21Z TO03Z TIME FRAME. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AN E-W BAND OF HEAVYPRECIP AS THE LOW PASSES BY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE BAND TRACKROUGHLY ALONG I-85. THIS MAY MEAN LESS SNOW ACCUM IN THE MTNS...BUTA HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACRS THEPIEDMONT. AS THE COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NE IN THELLVLS...THINK THE CHC OF ACCUM SNOW IS STILL BEST ACRS THE NCPIEDMONT...WITH LOWER PROB AS YOU HEAD SW TOWARD NE GA. WITH THATSAID...THERE IS ACCUMULATING SNOW ACRS MS UNDER THE LOW...WHICH WILLTRACK RIGHT THRU THE UPSTATE THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE NAM SHOWSSTRONG FRONTOGENESIS BAND LINING UP ALONG I-85 WITH NEG EPV IN THESTRONGEST OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH ZONE IN THE MID LVLS. SO WHAT ITHINK WILL HAPPEN IS THAT AN INTENSE NARROW BAND OF PRECIP WILLACCOMPANY THE UPR LOW AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING...AND THIS PRECIPMAY FALL MAINLY AS SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE FAIRLYLOCALIZED...SO MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GA WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEEFLURRIES/DUSTING AT TAIL-END OF THE PRECIP LATE THIS EVENING. SO IHAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADV TO INCLUDE THE I-85 CORRIDORFROM SPARTANBURG TO FRANKLIN GA TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWACCUM AND BLACK ICE. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TO 6 AMTONIGHT. Sounds about like what I posted earlier for NEGA (the poster). He'll love reading that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Our ULL is at -5 ~850 http://imgur.com/tYLs9'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RPM hammers NC! Asheville to CLT and moving east. Changes the rain to heavy snow along 85 in the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This concerns me greatly. I think the changeover will occur quickly but if this thing picks up speed the duration (or lack thereof) will kill our totals. I think we are definitely well positioned here in the heart of the Triad. Amazed at the rainfall over the last few days though. Are you tracking totals here locally? My gauge is shot and I had to take it down over Christmas. Not tracking totals. After a 2 year snow drought, I'm in Vegas for a trade show and will miss the storm. Hopefully we (y'all) get pummeled. I think the show will be great for a few hours, but I think it will be short. If you look at the GFS, by the time the 850 line shifts to our south/east, we've only got about .25" of qpf to go. Just one model and not the best to look at at this time. However, not a good thing to see. I really think RAH is about right at this time. Haven't been able to keep up with the rainfall due to being out of town. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 How about points west of there? Can you post it? It changes y'all over as we'll. actually back into eastern TN as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks to me the RAP is showing the heaviest axis of snow running roughly from just east of Charlotte to AVl and north to southern Va. This would include cities of Charlotte, Hickory, INT, GSO, and into RDU area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Sounds about like what I posted earlier for NEGA (the poster). He'll love reading that.Lol yes and no. I like reading it but also know from experience how things go in ga for snow, upper level lows, cold chasing precip etc. I am hopeful but it's hard she. It's pouring now but 52 out side. Even a quick hit of a couple hours snow would beat last year.Ps sorry about ur back. I have back issues at times but nothing like what you are going through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAP really hammers the southern mountains of VA between 5-7hrs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It changes y'all over as we'll. actually back into eastern TN as well Thanks for mentioning east TN. I don't think there is any doubt we change over here in east TN, its just a matter of seeing if we can eek out an hour or two under heavier snow. Most modeling is really drying east TN out very quickly once the colder air needed for snow has worked its way into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_mrx.php URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN1211 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013 ..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THISEVENING... ...WINTRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGHTHIS EVENING....A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ANDSOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT GENERATINGANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. BRISK NORTHERLYWINDS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAINWILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LESSERAMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THEAREA THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks for mentioning east TN. I don't think there is any doubt we change over here in east TN, its just a matter of seeing if we can eek out an hour or two under heavier snow. Most modeling is really drying east TN out very quickly once the colder air needed for snow has worked its way into the system. I have to disagree based on the latest RAP: Every RAP run over the past 3 hours has increased the intensity of this thing across east TN. I have guarded optimism at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GSP really cutting back on snow amounts for the foothills and parts of the mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 At least for the southern foothills it has gone up a tick. Started by under 1", then to 1.5" then to 1.4" now it is 1.7" I assume this jumping will continue to happen as we progress through the afternoon GSP really cutting back on snow amounts for the foothills and parts of the mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 At least for the southern foothills it has gone up a tick. Started by under 1", then to 1.5" then to 1.4" now it is 1.7" I assume this jumping will continue to happen as we progress through the afternoon It started as 2.1 then went up to 3.1 now down to 1.8 here, and lower for Asheville and the northern mountains as well, bottom line is it will be almost impossible to pinpoint where the heaviest accumulations will be due to the banding nature of the comma head and deformation band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
degadylan77 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Light to Moderate snow in Pelham AL 35124 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Been toggling back and forth between last runs of the RAP and there is a clear north trend. It's subtle between 1 hour runs, but if you look back 6-9 hours, it's enough to matter. I would be (and am) very nervous if I were in extreme northern S.C. and extreme southern N.C. about the bulk of the precip falling to the north. The state line has been the demarcation, but it's going to be close. A few more 25-mile north jogs and it could have significant consequences for Tryon/Forest City/Shelby/Gaffney/Gastonia/CLT. If you look hours 9-11 of the 16z RAP, you start to see some "air" between the .1 per hour QPF line and the NC/SC state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What are the newest surface temps at CLT when the changeover starts? Haven't heard much descussion on surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I have to disagree based on the latest RAP: Every RAP run over the past 3 hours has increased the intensity of this thing across east TN. I have guarded optimism at this point. The dry slot moving through also may help lower dew points allowing for a quicker cool down once the precip from the ULL moves on in. At least that's what I would hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GSP really cutting back on snow amounts for the foothills and parts of the mountains... Oddly enough, they increased mine even though it wasn't by much. Still not expecting anything but rain here either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Our temps have started a slow fall here and falling around 1.5º/hr right now from the west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Been toggling back and forth between last runs of the RAP and there is a clear north trend. It's subtle between 1 hour runs, but if you look back 6-9 hours, it's enough to matter. I would be (and am) very nervous if I were in extreme northern S.C. and extreme southern N.C. about the bulk of the precip falling to the north. The state line has been the demarcation, but it's going to be close. A few more 25-mile north jogs and it could have significant consequences for Tryon/Forest City/Shelby/Gaffney/Gastonia/CLT. If you look hours 9-11 of the 16z RAP, you start to see some "air" between the .1 per hour QPF line and the NC/SC state line. Agreed, it's maybe moved 25 miles north, huge differences for the people on the northern/southern fringes. Take a look at the 13z RAP run, 6 hour precip totals ending 7z Friday. 16z run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Roads getting messy just north of Birmingham. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE WALKER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY ALABAMA RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1108 AM CST THU JAN 17 2013 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE WALKER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY ALABAMA: DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ROAD CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED CONSIDERABLY CAUSING MULTIPLE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. PLEASE...UNLESS YOU ARE DEALING WITH AN EMERGENCY SITUATION...STAY OFF COUNTY ROADWAYS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Where did the RAP 16Z start the ull at 01 compared to current surface data? You are correct and the battle line might jog N a tick.. Been toggling back and forth between last runs of the RAP and there is a clear north trend. It's subtle between 1 hour runs, but if you look back 6-9 hours, it's enough to matter. I would be (and am) very nervous if I were in extreme northern S.C. and extreme southern N.C. about the bulk of the precip falling to the north. The state line has been the demarcation, but it's going to be close. A few more 25-mile north jogs and it could have significant consequences for Tryon/Forest City/Shelby/Gaffney/Gastonia/CLT. If you look hours 9-11 of the 16z RAP, you start to see some "air" between the .1 per hour QPF line and the NC/SC state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I have to disagree based on the latest RAP: Every RAP run over the past 3 hours has increased the intensity of this thing across east TN. I have guarded optimism at this point. After closer inspection..............of the RAP..............I noticed that from 3ish till about 8 or 8:30 the RAP has KTRI in 30-35 dbz's the entire time. Anyone know how much of this would be snow? I wonder why this is so different than the hi-res NAM and other higher resolution models? How valuable or reliable is the RAP and how much credence should we in east TN pay to it? Looking for that ray of hope here! Thanks in advance for any imput. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Update from Asheville news 13 met Jason Boyer Latest model runs are more consistently showing LESS snow for the FBRV (French Broad River Valley) & MORE snow farther north and east. This means areas like Rutherford, McDowell, Burke & Caldwell County could end up with some of the biggest totals! AVL, WVL & HVL will still get snow, but the lower end is looking more likely. This will put the range between 1" & 3" for most valleys. It's still an evolving storm, so stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 850 lifting a little north guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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