bingcrosbyb Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Euro looks stronger at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Was hoping for some comment from those with access beyond the 24 hours frames -- at 48h the s/w looked stronger and then you still see remnants of it (and pretty cold 850s) on the coast at 72h. Care to share what it shows in between? Nothing. 850 0c line dances north of the precip majority of run. 0c line at 66hrs is from CLT to RDU but that is after the precip has fallen, moves out. Not a lot of snow for anyone this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADManager Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Peachtree is on board for the possibility. 1227 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY.AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD AMPLEGULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD... RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSSNORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHESINTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A DEEP COLD AIR MASS WILLBEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOONAND EVENING. AS A RESULT... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TOCHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENTWRAP AROUND MOISTURE CAN SPREAD BACK INTO THE COLD AIR MASS BEHINDTHE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DESPITE WARM GROUNDS FROM RECENTUNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THATSTRONG UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ENOUGH TO ALLOWFOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA BYMID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING... BUT THIS WOULDBE MAINLY OVER ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOWCOULD BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE... ITAPPEARS THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BEGENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND THEI-85 CORRIDOR EAST OF ATLANTA.AT THIS TIME... NO WIDESPREAD TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTEDWITH THE INITIAL SNOWFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE ISA GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF BLACK ICE DEVELOPING ON BRIDGESAND OVERPASSES FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MID FRIDAYMORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TOMONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OFWINTER WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Euro is very close. It keeps that energy pretty strong. Really slams the mountains with snow but outside of that it's marginal..but I just quickly looked at it just now. Just to elaborate it kind of just dissolves the energy once it hits around GA much like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 09z sref locked and loaded for the Mtn's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Euro has a 2-3 closed contour ULL until Sc. 850,s are at or Below 0c west of GA, But QPF is much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Euro has a 2-3 closed contour ULL until Sc. 850,s are at or Below 0c west of GA, But QPF is much less. Sounds like it's bowing to the mighty nam, could it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Euro has a 2-3 closed contour ULL until Sc. 850,s are at or Below 0c west of GA, But QPF is much less. Hey Chris, it looked to me like for at least NC QPF was good but temps were not. Interesting that at 5h it looked so good but at the surface it went to crap once it hit GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 We will be shooting blanks outside of the mountains at least through the end of the month in my view. At this point we are nearly looking to February for the last great hope before this horrid 2nd consecutive winter season comes to a close. Nah I never give up hope till the end of March. I've seen too many big snows near the end of March in my lifetime here in The Upsate of SC. Granted it doesn't happen often, but I've seen a few of them and I'd say we're overdue one at that time also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 As Andy eluded to just when the trend starts in one direction along comes Dr No with a stronger system. No doubts temps are not great anywhere outside the mountains but the strength and track are gonna change things for some folks. This one is gonna be hard to call and kudos to those of you that have to put your name out there to the public as a MET. Thanks Robert, Andy, delta, Matt and the rest of you for the analysis!! Let's all sit back and enjoy and thank ma nature for giving us weirdos something to track and follow this winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I would think if the Euro depiction at 500 is right, it could be underestimating the qpf amounts. If it's that dynamic it would reason that there would be a pretty expansive qpf field (more like the NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I would think if the Euro depiction at 500 is right, it could be underestimating the qpf amounts. If it's that dynamic it would reason that there would be a pretty expansive qpf field (more like the NAM) NC definitely gets it's fair share of QPF... CLT ~1.72" HKY ~1.08" RDU ~1.03" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hey Chris, it looked to me like for at least NC QPF was good but temps were not. Interesting that at 5h it looked so good but at the surface it went to crap once it hit GA. Yes, temps were not great. Going to need elevation I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Peachtree is on board for the possibility. 1227 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD AMPLE GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD... RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A DEEP COLD AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CAN SPREAD BACK INTO THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DESPITE WARM GROUNDS FROM RECENT UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT STRONG UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING... BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY OVER ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW COULD BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE... IT APPEARS THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND THE I-85 CORRIDOR EAST OF ATLANTA. AT THIS TIME... NO WIDESPREAD TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE INITIAL SNOWFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF BLACK ICE DEVELOPING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINTER WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. I'm going to say this... I'm shocked. FFC is always VERY conservative with their forecast. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 NC definitely gets it's fair share of QPF... CLT ~1.72" HKY ~1.08" RDU ~1.03" That would be great if we had the cold air to go with it. I wish we could just get everything to come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 when's he last time a rain event under-performed on precipitation? last winter most likely all events (at least near Greenville, SC) since December 1st or so have OVER-performed Was about to post this but... Fair enough. Just being conservative with this system. I see you already saw it and agreed... I have thought those snow accums were overdone though. What was said before this to cause the nevertheless qualifier? Was wondering the same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 NC definitely gets it's fair share of QPF... CLT ~1.72" HKY ~1.08" RDU ~1.03" And for AVL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It seems that someone is going to get a sloppy inch or two as a surprise outside of the mountains, but it's going to be really difficult to figure out exactly who. It all depends where the 850s crash, how much, and what precip rates people are having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm going to say this... I'm shocked. FFC is always VERY conservative with their forecast. Wow... Steve, I was thinking the exact same thing when I read that myself. Usually have to pull them kicking and screaming to make mention of an event like this, especially when its a marginal situation. Perhaps they are thinking the same thing in regard to the euro that has it trending stronger. Anywho, finally a fun one to watch......when it comes to winter weather, its been quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Sounds like it's bowing to the mighty nam, could it be? the "mighty" NAM is all over the place right now and has been, but that's no surprise right? it's trending weaker and less expansive at 500mb from previous NAM runs (see my post from earlier) since it has gone from an Illinois to Tennessee to now Western NC snow storm in around two days time, it's the new "crazy drunk uncle" of all models as far as I'm concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 And for AVL? Looks like 0.71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 FFC talking about Snow is the kiss of death... Personally I'm surprised they mentioned it in places like LaGrange based on what we have to go by right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 the "mighty" NAM is getting a bit too much credit... the model is all over the place right now and has been it's trending weaker and less expansive at 500mb from previous NAM runs (see my post from earlier) since it has gone from an Illinois to Tennessee to now Western NC snow storm in around two days time, it's the new "crazy drunk uncle" of all models as far as I'm concerned LOL I know, I just figured that would get a few euro fans fired up. The nam has trended weaker with each run, but that was expected as you alluded to. It has went from the midwest to the south in just 24 hours. I was posting yesterday at 12z about how far north it was. The nam should continue to trend south, but how much more? I see the euro and ukie have went to a much stronger closed low on today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 the "mighty" NAM is all over the place right now and has been, but that's no surprise right? it's trending weaker and less expansive at 500mb from previous NAM runs (see my post from earlier) since it has gone from an Illinois to Tennessee to now Western NC snow storm in around two days time, it's the new "crazy drunk uncle" of all models as far as I'm concerned Pretty typical of the NAM in these situations. I think it was like Feb of '10 that it did the same thing but started on NC and ended up hitting IN and KY really hard. It actually zeroed in on those areas within about 42 hours, but had slowly started going that was the closer to 42 it got. Perhaps this one is the same and it starts to hone in on NC (or I can dream at least). With that storm it also overperformed which IIRC seems to the MO with ULLs that roll through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 LOL I know, I just figured that would get a few euro fans fired up. The nam has trended weaker with each run, but that was expected as you alluded to. It has went from the midwest to the south in just 24 hours. I was posting yesterday at 12z about how far north it was. The nam should continue to trend south, but how much more? I see the euro and ukie have went to a much stronger closed low on today's runs. since we have many who live in Western NC frequenting this board (Franklin, Don, Met and others)... I'm pulling for them and expect to see a tad more expansive precip field on radar on the northern side of this system compared to what is currently shown on the GFS and Euro although, the heaviest precip will certainly be under the upper low and highest vertical velocities... so being too far north in Western NC might not be as good of a position in this case Balsam Mountains to Cataloochee are my pick to click Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I wish I was in WNC The dividing line, if take the 2000' mark would be the mid to upper part of Rutherford County for my area. My area sits around 1000-1,200' . since we have many who live in Western NC frequenting this board (Franklin, Don, Met and others)... I'm pulling for them and expect to see a tad more expansive precip field on radar onthe northern side of this system compared to what is currently shown on the GFS and Euro although, the heaviest precip will certainly be under the upper low and highest vertical velocities... so being too far north in Western NC might not be as good of a position in this case Balsam Mountains to Cataloochee are my pick to click Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 since we have many who live in Western NC frequenting this board (Franklin, Don, Met and others)... I'm pulling for them and expect to see a tad more expansive precip field on radar onthe northern side of this system compared to what is currently shown on the GFS and Euro although, the heaviest precip will certainly be under the upper low and highest vertical velocities... so being too far north in Western NC might not be as good of a position in this case Balsam Mountains are my pick to click We shall see. The NAM soundings indicate change-over to snow by 4pm and quickly ending by 10pm. Gotta figure the first hour or two of any potential snow will be working as a foundation builder for more accumulations. My first guess for AVL is 2-4", again using essentially a blend of the NAM and EURO. GFS is about 200 miles further south with the low than the NAM, so big changes are still possible. In addition, the 06Z run of the GFS had no QPF over the western NC mountains, and now we are "back on " again with the 12Z run. And we are within 48-60 hours of the event starting! GFS soundings, FWIW, show changeover by 2pm, ending by 7pm. Colder but drier is the end result there. 1-2" if you take it at face value. If the 00Z and tomorrow's 12Z NAM/GFS start to converge, look for a WSW by noon tomorrow for the western NC mountains. My winner? Smoky Mountains National Park. 6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Just speaking from past experiences, a lot of the time you can see the models honing in on an area for the axis of heaviest qpf and then shift that northward 50-100 miles as the event unfolds.I have gotten screwed on this very thing many many times in northern middle Tennessee where I grew up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 since we have many who live in Western NC frequenting this board (Franklin, Don, Met and others)... I'm pulling for them and expect to see a tad more expansive precip field on radar on the northern side of this system compared to what is currently shown on the GFS and Euro although, the heaviest precip will certainly be under the upper low and highest vertical velocities... so being too far north in Western NC might not be as good of a position in this case Balsam Mountains to Cataloochee are my pick to click I thought it helps to be just north of the 700mb low? Is that not the best spot to be for the best rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Pretty typical of the NAM in these situations. I think it was like Feb of '10 that it did the same thing but started on NC and ended up hitting IN and KY really hard. It actually zeroed in on those areas within about 42 hours, but had slowly started going that was the closer to 42 it got. Perhaps this one is the same and it starts to hone in on NC (or I can dream at least). With that storm it also overperformed which IIRC seems to the MO with ULLs that roll through. good point brother it pays to stay somewhat optimistic and looking at how things are trending knowing that a few minor changes can put you in the game... too bad this system has a bit of a low ceiling as to how cold the middle and upper levels can get in Charlotte Thursday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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