atlweatherman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest NAM output for RDU....no way this verifies but it's fun to look at... Where can I see this type of txt output for the ATL area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest RAP keeps the low closed (barely) until 4z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlweatherman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here is where I'm confused.. If this low is suppose to explode with more moisture as the day goes on and it comes down heavy in places like Birmingham, I don't understand why the ATL area won't see the same.. weird.. What am I missing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 From The NWS - Raleigh for the Piedmont Triad of NC EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE TRIAD REGIONBETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. THIS TRANSITION WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME AS MIDLEVEL LOW TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD REACH THETHE TRIANGLE AREA AND THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 9AND MIDNIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE 700MB CYCLONE SUGGEST A GOODPOTENTIAL FOR A SNOW BAND TO OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THEPIEDMONT...POSSIBLY NEAR OF JUST WEST OF THE TRIANGLE. INADDITION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME LIGHTING OCCURWITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BANDS.SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THISWILL LEAD TO SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AWARM TOP SOIL...WARM PAVEMENT AND HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING PRIOR TOCHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL INITIALLY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION.STILL...EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT MAINLY INGRASSY AREAS WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SLUSH DEVELOPING ON ROADWAYS. WITHTEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOWFREEZING...DRIVING MAY QUICKLY BECOME TREACHEROUS/DANGEROUSOVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.AGAIN...THE THING THAT BOTHERS ME THE MOST IS THE LACK OF COLD AIRIN PLACE PRIOR TO STORM ARRIVAL. A DELAY OF CHANGEOVER BY ONE-TWOHOURS WILL CUT INTO EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS. IF THIS DELAYOCCURS...FINAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE AT LEAST HALF OF WHAT ISCURRENTLY FORECAST (IF NOT MORE). I don't like that last part. How likely is a delay based on what we are seeing now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest RAP keeps the low closed (barely) until 4z... The question will be when does the RAP stop trending ever so slightly stronger with each run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 From The NWS - Raleigh for the Piedmont Triad of NC EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE TRIAD REGIONBETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. THIS TRANSITION WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME AS MIDLEVEL LOW TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD REACH THETHE TRIANGLE AREA AND THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 9AND MIDNIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE 700MB CYCLONE SUGGEST A GOODPOTENTIAL FOR A SNOW BAND TO OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THEPIEDMONT...POSSIBLY NEAR OF JUST WEST OF THE TRIANGLE. INADDITION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME LIGHTING OCCURWITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BANDS.SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THISWILL LEAD TO SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AWARM TOP SOIL...WARM PAVEMENT AND HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING PRIOR TOCHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL INITIALLY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION.STILL...EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT MAINLY INGRASSY AREAS WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SLUSH DEVELOPING ON ROADWAYS. WITHTEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOWFREEZING...DRIVING MAY QUICKLY BECOME TREACHEROUS/DANGEROUSOVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.AGAIN...THE THING THAT BOTHERS ME THE MOST IS THE LACK OF COLD AIRIN PLACE PRIOR TO STORM ARRIVAL. A DELAY OF CHANGEOVER BY ONE-TWOHOURS WILL CUT INTO EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS. IF THIS DELAYOCCURS...FINAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE AT LEAST HALF OF WHAT ISCURRENTLY FORECAST (IF NOT MORE). Ugghhh...that's the biggest problem, if the changeover occurs at midnight RDU might see an inch, if it's a 10pm 2-4" looks great. I still think GSO is the sweetspot up through Roxboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 A composite water vapor image , and animation http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/flash-wv.html The Pacific and Atlantic dynamics involved may be possible to watch. Will the low(s) disconnect from the large moist air in the Pacific to which the past week's east coast weather system has been attached, or draw more greatly from it? Hoping everyone will be safe through this! It will not be a wind event at lower elevations and hopefully it will also stay as subdued as possible in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like the RAP just stuck a knife in the backs of east Tennesseans (again). Thanks for posting that though! I think it will be an interesting case study for someone with a lot more knowledge than me, but for the models to change course and cut precip totals in half this close to the event (less than 24 hours) it makes you look for reasons why. My theory (if this actually happens) is that the interaction of the northern jet for a period actually disrupts flow into our area of east TN, cutting precip totals back quite a bit for us here. This interaction is bad for us, but good for NC as I think it's also responsible for the increased totals for you guys. Just a theory, and I am certainly NOT a professional........................would love to hear a met chime in with regards to this. Cold core lows can do some crazy things, so you guys south and west of me..................GET YOU SOME DEFORM! Models don't support much snow now and the radar does not either. I am going to be eating some crow with my friends on this one. Seems in NETN we almost have to have arctic air diving into a system from the GOM or cold air must already be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Huntsville update: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_hun.php .UPDATE...FOR ADDING COUNTIES TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING.&&.DISCUSSION...THE POWERFUL UPPER LOW CENTER IS NOW TRACKING INTO CENTRAL AL PERRADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS. A PRONOUNCED SHEARED/DEFORMATION ZONE WITHPL/SN WAS CROSSED MS INTO NWRN AL. A "FEEDER" BAND OF MORE CONVECTIVEPRECIP OVER CULLMAN INTO MORGAN COUNTIES WAS A MIX OF -RA/PL. THECOMPLICATING FACTOR IS LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IN REPSPONSE TO THEDEEPENING SFC LOW IN GA HAS ADVECTED DRIER AIR INTO SRN TN/NRN AL.THIS HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS 5-7 DEGREES INTO THE 20S OVER THE PASTFEW HOURS WHERE PRECIP WAS NOT FALLING AS OF YET. CONSEQUENTLY...THISHAS LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE RAPID COOLING OF THE ATMO AS PRECIPFALLS...AND MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIODDURING THE SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCURAS A RESULT. TO NO SURPRISE...THE QG AND DEFORMATION FORCING IS QUITESTRONG AS THIS LOW MOVES NEWD...AND THE 12Z NAM QPF AND UPSTREAMREPORTS OF 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN MS LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENTWARNING. WE HAVE RAISED ACCUMS BY ABOUT AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHERAMTS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM...MAINLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE COLDERTEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED. WE HAVE ALSO ADDED A ROW OF COUNTIES TO THEWARNING. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-25KT WILL LOWER VSBYS FURTHER ASTHE SNOW FALLS. BLACK ICE WILL LIKELY BECOME A PROBLEM THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here is where I'm confused.. If this low is suppose to explode with more moisture as the day goes on and it comes down heavy in places like Birmingham, I don't understand why the ATL area won't see the same.. weird.. What am I missing?? For one, it's warmer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I don't like that last part. How likely is a delay based on what we are seeing now? Well the latest RAP has the changeover between 9-10pm for RDU, which would line up well with 2-4", probably more for you since your more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Just talked to Robert he said latest RAP lines up well with the NAM and just slams 85. I'm sure he'll have more at www.wxsouth.com Yep, and Hi Res NAM like last night is showing some incredible 6 hour precip panels. Assuming that Gastonia and Shelby and points west turn to snow at 7 PM, which is about the time frame probably, it has 1.75" liquid equivalent most of that region in the southwest piedmont and extreme northern Upstate and some areas of 2.0" liquid equivalent falling AFTER 7 pm. I questioned this last night, but it still has it. Pretty much most of western NC west of I-77 has 1.5" or so liquid equivalent going back to mountains, just in that 6 hour span from 7 PM to 1 AM. Some parts of the escarpment, maybe Lake Lure had a 2.5" amount in just 6 hours, so if they have gone to snow, and if that is right, this will be a loaded snowstorm. Probably eclipsing the March 2009 deal in western NC some areas, but then again I don't know if it's right, as I normall follow it more in severe weather season. The snow will be loaded with water content, so ratios are low of course, but tha will be a lot of weight for sure. I think the model sees the deformation band better, and really lines the heart and soul of it from the northern Upstate to most of western NC for quite a while, then pivots eastward during the night and speeds up. I don't want to sound IMBY post, but the way it's lining up it sure looks to maximize lift, and rates somewhere in this area. I'm definitely NOT wanting a repeat of that terrible March 2009 night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Great water vapor loop as it rolls across the south. The loop does require Java but the images obviously do not so.... Go here http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_se_us.php and click on Water Vapor Loop, it loads a lot of images so it's a little slow.... AFTER it loads, click on "faster" about 7 times. Smaller Flash loops here for those with Java disabled. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_imagery.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Updated Atlanta AFD: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA1047 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013.UPDATE...BIG FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS TO BE THE WINTER PRECIPITATIONEXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP ALREADY THROUGH WESTERN GEORGIA ANDPROGRESSING INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHESTHROUGH MS/AL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT MOVING INTOWESTERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OFPRECIPITATION...AND HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLYPOP AND WX GRIDS AS A RESULT.AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO EASTERN AL AND INTO GEORGIA...THENEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. WITHTHE ORIENTATION OF THE DRY SLOT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE...ASTHE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEETRANSITION TO RAIN-SNOW MIX FIRST ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL GEORGIABEFORE NORTHWEST GEORGIA. STILL ANTICIPATE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONSTO BE IN THE FAR NORTH GEORGIA REGION AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERTHE STATE AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVERCOMES THEWARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here's the vertical velocities for Charlotte on the NAM (upward motion in negative values)...shows a burst of impressive values (-32+) in the 520 to 660mb range in the early evening with the deformation band. 2nd chart shows a coincident quick crash of the temperatures through the column...with saturation with respect to ice still present on RH profiles...all supports a burst of snow if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Some parts of the escarpment, maybe Lake Lure had a 2.5" amount in just 6 hours, so if they have gone to snow, and if that is right, this will be a loaded snowstorm. There's that magic word that makes jburns cringe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 But, from everything I've read we're probably looking at 5:1 ratios. Still great, but I would think 5" will be the top snow totals coming out of this storm. Given the setup, banding, very heavy rates/heavy precip totals, and decently cold enough temps aloft...I expect better than that in localized areas. That's not to say everyone will see that but I think 7 to 10 inches on grassy surfaces is a decent possibility wherever the heaviest banding occurs. RDU shows saturation all the way up to 450mb for a while which is pretty impressive. As noted though by rdu, the very wet ground will hurt accumulations. I remember a snowstorm a while back where I got a few inches of rain and although it snowed like crazy the very wet ground, puddling of water, etc kept acculuations way down fronm what they would have been. It was funny seeing no snow in some areas and 4 to 6 inches(?) in others(?)..grassy surfaces. I think robert (foothillsnc) has discussed all of this this pretty well imo. One thing is for sure, this will be a very beautiful snowfall for the nc folks, regardless of where you are at. At the very least a good 3 to 6 inches should be expected for many areas. This is assuming 10:1 ratios though, right? I wonder what it would put on the map if it took the death band into account. Those of us that have been around a while know that these snowfall maps from the gfs/nam should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt.In fact they are worthless a lot of the times. I've seen these maps give me several inches when it was CLEAR that was impossible given the boundary layer temps and in fact I only got rain. Other times, I/others have gotten a lot more than what was shown on those maps. They leave a lot to be desired to say the least. So folks, don't take these snowfall maps seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Robert, can you post the graphic to go along with your disco. I assume it is the same you posted on FB about 40 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Models don't support much snow now and the radar does not either. I am going to be eating some crow with my friends on this one. Seems in NETN we almost have to have arctic air diving into a system from the GOM or cold air must already be in place. I'm generally on the same page as you but on the plus side the RAP is showing some rather good reflectivity for us for a decent period. No clue what that translates into as far as accums, but bodes well for heavy snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 12z gfs looks like the changeover is slower and the precip quicker to move out. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Great minds fueled by Waffle House octane anyway. I should probably clarify my thoughts though: For SC - if you look at a map and follow I-85 from border to border, I am tempering my initial thoughts the closer you edge west toward GA. I think Spartanburg and Cherokee counties from I-85 north still look game ready, but Greenville west will see less playing time (with the exception being the highlands of GVL, OCN and PIK counties). Eastern Spartanburg county may see some action south of I-85. That gets the snow very close to me if that turns out to be right since I'm in NW Union county about 7 miles SE of Pacolet. I am hoping to at least see some snow falling later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scsnowgirl Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Just talked to Robert he said latest RAP lines up well with the NAM and just slams 85. I'm sure he'll have more at www.wxsouth.com Is this for only North Carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 12z gfs looks like the changeover is slower and the precip quicker to move out. Tw Yeah, peaked at that, I am sure the MA folks love that run, but at this point I would give the edge to the NAM/RAP. But kudos to the GFS because it did fairly well with the overall setup of this storm the best from 4-5 days out, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yep, and Hi Res NAM like last night is showing some incredible 6 hour precip panels. Assuming that Gastonia and Shelby and points west turn to snow at 7 PM, which is about the time frame probably, it has 1.75" liquid equivalent most of that region in the southwest piedmont and extreme northern Upstate and some areas of 2.0" liquid equivalent falling AFTER 7 pm. I questioned this last night, but it still has it. Pretty much most of western NC west of I-77 has 1.5" or so liquid equivalent going back to mountains, just in that 6 hour span from 7 PM to 1 AM. Some parts of the escarpment, maybe Lake Lure had a 2.5" amount in just 6 hours, so if they have gone to snow, and if that is right, this will be a loaded snowstorm. Probably eclipsing the March 2009 deal in western NC some areas, but then again I don't know if it's right, as I normall follow it more in severe weather season. The snow will be loaded with water content, so ratios are low of course, but tha will be a lot of weight for sure. I think the model sees the deformation band better, and really lines the heart and soul of it from the northern Upstate to most of western NC for quite a while, then pivots eastward during the night and speeds up. I don't want to sound IMBY post, but the way it's lining up it sure looks to maximize lift, and rates somewhere in this area. I'm definitely NOT wanting a repeat of that terrible March 2009 night. Robert hate to be a IMBY'r but looking at the latest Hi Res NAM and RAP snowfall maps it looks like most of the upstate are probably going to see mostly liquid with a small amount of change over to snow at the end. Last night you seemed pretty confident that the upstate get see significant impact from this and that the models never handle these ULL correctly. I am a little confused here. Were you saying that even though no model is showing signifcant snow for the upstate that you felt it would snow here based on your understanding and past experience with these systems OR are you saying you are in agreement with what the Hi Res NAM and RAP is showing and that only the northern most portions of the upstate would see snow but that they would get slammed. It looks like Spartanburg Co (which is in the upstate) stands a far better chance of snow than Greenville and Pickens county. Is that correct or do you feel like central Greenville and Pickens are still in for a surprise. Thanks and again sorry for the IMBY tone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm generally on the same page as you but on the plus side the RAP is showing some rather good reflectivity for us for a decent period. No clue what that translates into as far as accums, but bodes well for heavy snow falling. Still thinking warning-criteria snows are a lock for the mountains, though. Tri-Cities aren't completely out of it yet, especially Johnson City. Even 2" is much better than anything seen in the past two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 btw, this is a note worthy portion of rdu's discussion. It's going to be close in some areas as far as how much actually accumulates since there is a very sharp cutoff in terms of cold/warm air. A few tens of miles and 2 hours worth with regard to changeover can make a world of difference. AGAIN...THE THING THAT BOTHERS ME THE MOST IS THE LACK OF COLD AIRIN PLACE PRIOR TO STORM ARRIVAL. A DELAY OF CHANGEOVER BY ONE-TWOHOURS WILL CUT INTO EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS. IF THIS DELAYOCCURS...FINAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE AT LEAST HALF OF WHAT ISCURRENTLY FORECAST (IF NOT MORE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 No two storms are alike, but this looks very similar to the 02/15/04 storm, but with higher totals in the mtns, and the overall amounts shifted slightly south. I think Charlotte pretty much gets fringed...dusting to an inch (GSP is going with 2-4 inches). In central NC, I like the highest amounts on the counties bordering NC/VA. Indeed, some notable similarities there. Lest we forget what happened 11 days later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Those of us that have been around a while know that these snowfall maps from the gfs/nam should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt.In fact they are worthless a lot of the times. I've seen these maps give me several inches when it was CLEAR that was impossible given the boundary layer temps and in fact I only got rain. Other times, I/others have gotten a lot more than what was shown on those maps. They leave a lot to be desired to say the least. So folks, don't take these snowfall maps seriously. Right. That's kind of why I asked; they're generally overdone, and then you mentioned they might be underdone. Thanks for the reply! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 btw, this is a note worthy portion of rdu's discussion. It's going to be close in some areas as far as how much actually accumulates since there is a very sharp cutoff in terms of cold/warm air. A few tens of miles, if that can make a world of difference. AGAIN...THE THING THAT BOTHERS ME THE MOST IS THE LACK OF COLD AIRIN PLACE PRIOR TO STORM ARRIVAL. A DELAY OF CHANGEOVER BY ONE-TWOHOURS WILL CUT INTO EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS. IF THIS DELAYOCCURS...FINAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE AT LEAST HALF OF WHAT ISCURRENTLY FORECAST (IF NOT MORE). I am worried about that, too, but someone mentioned the RAP keeps showing the changeover not being delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Given the setup, banding, very heavy rates/heavy precip totals, and decently cold enough temps aloft...I expect better than that in localized areas. That's not to say everyone will see that but I think 7 to 10 inches on grassy surfaces is a decent possibility wherever the heaviest banding occurs. RDU shows saturation all the way up to 450mb for a while which is pretty impressive. As noted though by rdu, the very wet ground will hurt accumulations. I remember a snowstorm a while back where I got a few inches of rain and although it snowed like crazy the very wet ground, puddling of water, etc kept acculuations way down fronm what they would have been. It was funny seeing no snow in some areas and 4 to 6 inches(?) in others(?)..grassy surfaces. I think robert (foothillsnc) has discussed all of this this pretty well imo. One thing is for sure, this will be a very beautiful snowfall for the nc folks, regardless of where you are at. At the very least a good 3 to 6 inches should be expected for many areas. Those of us that have been around a while know that these snowfall maps from the gfs/nam should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt.In fact they are worthless a lot of the times. I've seen these maps give me several inches when it was CLEAR that was impossible given the boundary layer temps and in fact I only got rain. Other times, I/others have gotten a lot more than what was shown on those maps. They leave a lot to be desired to say the least. So folks, don't take these snowfall maps seriously. Btw, about that 7 to 10 inches i mentioned, I'm not saying it will happen, there is just a chance it will in a localized area. It might not be but a few tens of miles wide if it happens. I don't want folks to think I'm actually calling for that amount, just it's possible. Could be one of those cases where 7 to 10 inches actually falls..but due to wet ground it won't accumulate to that much...much like that storm I had several years back..where I did have that much fall but had much less accumulation. I remember it making me sick LOL..and it also involved an upper low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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