beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAP continues to get a touch colder and is noticeably stronger with 850 feature. Holds the 500 low together at least an hour longer than the 6z NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAP continues to get a touch colder and is noticeably stronger with 850 feature. Holds the 500 low together at least an hour longer than the 6z NAM did. And this has implications for holding onto a stronger deformation axis longer as well. RAP suggesting it will be well-developed and hard to diminish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm currently Mobile so please elaborate for me. Thanks It seems to develop a nice comma head structure moving thru after 850 temps crash. It wants to "pinwheel" moisture over the area for 3-5 hours during this time. 700 low looks to track just south of I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think people need to understand that the moisture begins to explode when the storms starts to take on a neg tilt and that won't happen untill later in the day. At this point it's just a waiting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The storm is really beginning to take the classic comma shape now. You can also see where the deformation band is setting up at now. I expect it to get larger and more intense as the day goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It seems to develop a nice comma head structure moving thru after 850 temps crash. It wants to "pinwheel" moisture over the area for 3-5 hours during this time. 700 low looks to track just south of I-85. thanks. That would certainly bode well for my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Jason, here's one image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Great minds think alike? Lol Great minds fueled by Waffle House octane anyway. I should probably clarify my thoughts though: For SC - if you look at a map and follow I-85 from border to border, I am tempering my initial thoughts the closer you edge west toward GA. I think Spartanburg and Cherokee counties from I-85 north still look game ready, but Greenville west will see less playing time (with the exception being the highlands of GVL, OCN and PIK counties). Eastern Spartanburg county may see some action south of I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 thanks. That would certainly bode well for my backyard Just going off 850 temps the 14z ruc gives your area about 4 hours of snow. 2 of those hours look heavy with some good vv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Jason, here's one image thanks Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Robert - the one that this reminds me of the most is 02/15/04. Highest total I have from that one was 11 inches in Summertown, TN Here are the maps: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us0215.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us0216.php http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040215.gif No two storms are alike, but this looks very similar to the 02/15/04 storm, but with higher totals in the mtns, and the overall amounts shifted slightly south. I think Charlotte pretty much gets fringed...dusting to an inch (GSP is going with 2-4 inches). In central NC, I like the highest amounts on the counties bordering NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Amounts are lessening as we get closer to show time based on the newest NAM. I don't even want to look at the high resolution version out of fear KTRI will not see any accumulation. I can't give up though so what is the current RAP version that I should be looking at? Good luck Carolina guys/gals, you guys are looking better in a LOT of areas. Hope you lee side guys can manage to score too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM Bufkit hourly soundings show transition at RDU from 9-10pm. At least 0.5 inches liquid QPF is all snow at RDU, but possibly like 0.5 to 0.75 inches of liquid qpf is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Amounts are lessening as we get closer to show time based on the newest NAM. I don't even want to look at the high resolution version out of fear KTRI will not see any accumulation. I can't give up though so what is the current RAP version that I should be looking at? Good luck Carolina guys/gals, you guys are looking better in a LOT of areas. Hope you lee side guys can manage to score too! Here's accumulated snowfall from the 13Z RAP (the latest). 14Z is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here's accumulated snowfall from the 13Z RAP (the latest). 14Z is running. Gotta love that CLT snow hole. The models just hate CLT for snow on this one....unless of course that's two feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think people need to understand that the moisture begins to explode when the storms starts to take on a neg tilt and that won't happen untill later in the day. At this point it's just a waiting game. Thank you. It seems like people panic based on radar trends way out in Missississippi with every storm. The dynamics that make this thing explode have not yet occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Gotta love that CLT snow hole. The models just hate CLT for snow on this one....unless of course that's two feet I think the circles indicate that is where stations are located. Looks like 2-3 inches for CLT to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Gotta love that CLT snow hole. The models just hate CLT for snow on this one....unless of course that's two feet It looks like 2-4" from that map for CLT (Meck. County). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think the circles indicate that is where stations are located. Looks like 2-3 inches for CLT to me. That would probably make more sense...the closer we get you can't help but get a little weenish. hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moose4 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here's accumulated snowfall from the 13Z RAP (the latest). 14Z is running. Interesting. I wonder why the RAP has that one little hotspot of 8" or so in extreme NW Orange County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Interesting. I wonder why the RAP has that one little hotspot of 8" or so in extreme NW Orange County? A thunder snowstorm....I'm only half kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Amounts are lessening as we get closer to show time based on the newest NAM. I don't even want to look at the high resolution version out of fear KTRI will not see any accumulation. I can't give up though so what is the current RAP version that I should be looking at? Good luck Carolina guys/gals, you guys are looking better in a LOT of areas. Hope you lee side guys can manage to score too! Yep, I wouldn't be surprised if our period of mod/heavy only lasts an hour. Still will be neat to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I was searching through the local dopplers in Alabama and Mississippi and I found these banding features that have already set up along the Northwestern quad of our storm...I wish we had some folks there in the Tupelo area that could provide some obs...the radar looks very impressive. We start seeing that kind of look on the radar tonight in North Carolina, then watch out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest NAM output for RDU....no way this verifies but it's fun to look at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I was searching through the local dopplers in Alabama and Mississippi and I found these banding features that have already set up along the Northwestern quad of our storm...I wish we had some folks there in the Tupelo area that could provide some obs...the radar looks very impressive. We start seeing that kind of look on the radar tonight in North Carolina, then watch out!!! Yup and it's only going to get larger and more intense as the day goes on. The storm still isn't near peak. NC will probably be seeing yellow and quite possibly orange dbz returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Is that something you generate from the plymouth site? If not, do you have a link? Latest NAM output for RDU....no way this verifies but it's fun to look at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Just talked to Robert he said latest RAP lines up well with the NAM and just slams 85. I'm sure he'll have more at www.wxsouth.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Is that something you generate from the plymouth site? If not, do you have a link? Here you go.... http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like the RAP just stuck a knife in the backs of east Tennesseans (again). Thanks for posting that though! I think it will be an interesting case study for someone with a lot more knowledge than me, but for the models to change course and cut precip totals in half this close to the event (less than 24 hours) it makes you look for reasons why. My theory (if this actually happens) is that the interaction of the northern jet for a period actually disrupts flow into our area of east TN, cutting precip totals back quite a bit for us here. This interaction is bad for us, but good for NC as I think it's also responsible for the increased totals for you guys. Just a theory, and I am certainly NOT a professional........................would love to hear a met chime in with regards to this. Cold core lows can do some crazy things, so you guys south and west of me..................GET YOU SOME DEFORM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 From The NWS - Raleigh for the Piedmont Triad of NC EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE TRIAD REGIONBETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. THIS TRANSITION WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME AS MIDLEVEL LOW TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD REACH THETHE TRIANGLE AREA AND THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 9AND MIDNIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE 700MB CYCLONE SUGGEST A GOODPOTENTIAL FOR A SNOW BAND TO OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THEPIEDMONT...POSSIBLY NEAR OF JUST WEST OF THE TRIANGLE. INADDITION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME LIGHTING OCCURWITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BANDS.SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THISWILL LEAD TO SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AWARM TOP SOIL...WARM PAVEMENT AND HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING PRIOR TOCHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL INITIALLY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION.STILL...EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT MAINLY INGRASSY AREAS WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SLUSH DEVELOPING ON ROADWAYS. WITHTEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOWFREEZING...DRIVING MAY QUICKLY BECOME TREACHEROUS/DANGEROUSOVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.AGAIN...THE THING THAT BOTHERS ME THE MOST IS THE LACK OF COLD AIRIN PLACE PRIOR TO STORM ARRIVAL. A DELAY OF CHANGEOVER BY ONE-TWOHOURS WILL CUT INTO EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS. IF THIS DELAYOCCURS...FINAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE AT LEAST HALF OF WHAT ISCURRENTLY FORECAST (IF NOT MORE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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