LovingGulfLows Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 12Z NAM appears to have gone further north...the 700 low tracks right over ATL. Yeah, we should have expected a northern trend...it happens just about every time. Being on the edge is sometimes a good or bad thing...in this case for us, a bad thing. Since our chances are incredibly low, I'd hope some people can tell us their experience with the intense snow rates later this evening and tonight. I've seen 2-3 inch per hour rates in Jan 2011 and March 2009 here in Atlanta and it can get real fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This would be consistent with NWS saying Danville, VA through the Triad would be a good spot. I am debating a trip from Carrboro to GSO. Might as well.... I'm going home early for the weekend, meaning I'll be in Chapel Hill about a mile north of 40. Hopefully the last-minute north trend halts before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 the snow totals of the nam look way under done over NC. It shows 0.75 or better after it gets cold enough to snow. that's not counting banding, convection, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 That follows the typical NW of RAH "snowline" nicely. It does seem the Wake/Franklin line on US1 is a good spot to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 the snow totals of the nam look way under done over NC. It shows 0.75 or better after it gets cold enough to snow. that's not counting banding, convection, etc. Are you gonna head up to the n GA mtns? I would think with the 700 low going just to the south of there they should see a few hours of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 12z NAM snowfall There's a bulls-eye over my house. The feature in the western foothills is a bit troubling. I'm not sure if it will happen or not, but we did see a somewhat similar feature during the March 2009 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 06z vs. 12z NAM Comparison for 03z tonight... From 06z NAM: From 12z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not that it means much, but RAH updated point forecasts overnight and now has 3-5" for the Triad, including "Heavy Snow" as our forecast for tonight. A Winter Storm Warning is up, too! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC356 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013...A RAPID CHANGE TO WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGHTHE OVERNIGHT....A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRALNORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE QUICKLY TOSNOW THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR MOVE OVERHEAD.NCZ007>011-021>026-038>041-073-172100-/O.UPG.KRAH.WS.A.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T0900Z//O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T0900Z/PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...ALBEMARLE356 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AMEST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM ESTFRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...A LARGE PART OF THE PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING THE TRIAD...THE TRIANGLE AND ROCKY MOUNT* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO HEAVY WET SNOW THIS EVENING. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED* TIMING...THE CHANGEOVER IS EXPECTED IN THE TRIAD REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...REACHING THE TRIANGLE AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH WEST TO EAST AFTER 1 AM...ENDING IN THE EAST BY 4 AM.* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO AN ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES. DUE TO THE WARM PAVEMENT AND THE RAIN EXPECTED PRIOR TO CHANGEOVER...MOST ROADS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN WET BUT MAY BECOME VERY SLUSHY...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES OCCUR. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO ROADS QUICKLY BECOMING SLICK AND HAZARDOUS....ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE TRIANGLE. TRAVEL WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY MORNING.* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH TONIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S TODAY WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING...AND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING.* VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE IN SNOW AND FOG.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THATWILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOUMUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOURVEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Are you gonna head up to the n GA mtns? I would think with the 700 low going just to the south of there they should see a few hours of heavy snow. Nah...not worth it. One, I'm having bad back problems (just got cortisone shots in my back yesterday) so I don't think I'd be able to stand the drive.....and besides my truck is in the shop and I'm having to borrow my moms car. She's so protective of the damn thing, she'd kill me going to the mountains and dealing with snow LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 the snow totals of the nam look way under done over NC. It shows 0.75 or better after it gets cold enough to snow. that's not counting banding, convection, etc. What I dont get is the NAM shows 3" for Boone and 9" for Greensboro area, blows my mind that the NAM is showing such low amounts along the spine of the mtns. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 the snow totals of the nam look way under done over NC. It shows 0.75 or better after it gets cold enough to snow. that's not counting banding, convection, etc. I'm thinking you could be right. The RAP is also showing a blob of 40dzb returns basically following I-40 that marches from Asheville to the Triangle. Also shows .25+ precip totals each HOUR in those spots. I'll take three hours of that please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It does seem the Wake/Franklin line on US1 is a good spot to be. I know it doesn't mean much, but the NAM snow map has consistently had a tongue of higher totals right over NE Wake county/Western Franklin county. I think northern Wake and all of Franklin county will end up in a better spot under the deform band than other areas in the Triangle...say Cary/Raleigh...etc. But in the end who knows. I'm hoping for a couple hours of heavy wet white grapefruits falling form the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 850 low has formed with 0 to -2 temps right now http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_meso_analysis.php Down to -24 in the core of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 the snow totals of the nam look way under done over NC. It shows 0.75 or better after it gets cold enough to snow. that's not counting banding, convection, etc. But, from everything I've read we're probably looking at 5:1 ratios. Still great, but I would think 5" will be the top snow totals coming out of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 the snow totals of the nam look way under done over NC. It shows 0.75 or better after it gets cold enough to snow. that's not counting banding, convection, etc. This is assuming 10:1 ratios though, right? I wonder what it would put on the map if it took the death band into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 FWIW, this placement is more in line with the NAM which had the 850 low in Central Ala. at 15z (one hour later) while the GFS had it in eastern Alabama. 850 low has formed with 0 to -2 temps right now http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_meso_analysis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think it is interesting that the 12Z NAM is trending a bit drier over NC mountains, and wetter over central NC. Just 24 hours ago, the total QPF for Asheville was over 3". Today it is about half that. Meanwhile, amounts have nearly doubled over RDU. Fascinating. Here are some of my guesses based on the latest available data. I am totally ignoring both the GFS and NAM snowfall charts as I think they do not capture the deformation zone (or thundersnow) at all. CLT: 2-5" AVL: 5-8" MWK: 5-9" INT: 6-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 But, from everything I've read we're probably looking at 5:1 ratios. Still great, but I would think 5" will be the top snow totals coming out of this storm. I don't think that one can say that it's going to be a 5:1 ratio and leave it at that. The dynamics and cold core of this vigorous system will be moving from west to east and that 5:1 rate or whatever will be changing based on the dynamic cooling through the column. Too many variables like lift, thundersnow, upper air temps to broadstroke this. The same thing goes for the big blob of snow accumulation that the NAM and GFS has been throwing out. There will be much more variability from location to location with the final tally. Just look at all of the NWS studies posted of earlier storms to get a more accurate representation of what can happen with this storm. Thats why the higher resolution short-term models are the way to go now. And watching the radar of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I know it doesn't mean much, but the NAM snow map has consistently had a tongue of higher totals right over NE Wake county/Western Franklin county. I think northern Wake and all of Franklin county will end up in a better spot under the deform band than other areas in the Triangle...say Cary/Raleigh...etc. But in the end who knows. I'm hoping for a couple hours of heavy wet white grapefruits falling form the sky. I think you are right. I plan to make a drive up your way into Va. tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 5:1 ratios may be the rule at the start, but I truly doubt it will stay at such poor ratios for the whole shebang. Also, though I am far from an expert on the subject of snowfall ratios, the farther north and west you are from the changeover line, the better ratios will probably be, I would think (correct me if I'm wrong). I believe the average in my area (the Triad) is 8:1 overall, for reference.\ Sounds like Tuscaloosa, AL has changed over to snow, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Good morning everyone! If I were going to update my map, I would take atl out of any accumulations, and reduce the amounts over NGA down to a T-1". In AL, I would say we are still looking at the same amounts, T-2". I would pull back the amounts around CAE in SC though, only a T-1". Everywhere else looks like it should be ok on my map for now. I hope everyone gets to see a few flakes. Heck we can't get any rain out of this. Lol. -Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Am I the only one with concerns of the precip drying up in Mississippi right now. It looks to be well north. It has me worried for the Asheville area? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 09z sref would be a nice run for the far N GA posters. crushes western NC mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Am I the only one with concerns of the precip drying up in Mississippi right now. It looks to be well north. It has me worried for the Asheville area? Thoughts? Lots of panic beginning on the board this morning. Stay patient folks. Check out the lates 12Z hi-res NAM simulated radar. The heavy stuff is still about 6+ hours away. You'll notice a few of the initial frames show low amounts of precip in AL this morning. This was to be expected. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/12zNAM4kmreflectivity_SE.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Good morning everyone! If I were going to update my map, I would take atl out of any accumulations, and reduce the amounts over NGA down to a T-1". In AL, I would say we are still looking at the same amounts, T-2". I would pull back the amounts around CAE in SC though, only a T-1". Everywhere else looks like it should be ok on my map for now. I hope everyone gets to see a few flakes. Heck we can't get any rain out of this. Lol. -Chris. Funny - I just posted this elsewhere: "With a very slight jog north in the projected path, I'm starting to think 1"-3" will be limited to Spartanburg (really NE SPTG county) and Cherokee counties north of I-85, with the northern highlands of GVL, OCN and PIK counties still getting a decent event." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Wow just looked at the Hi-Res NAM it has 5 inches over CLT of total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest RAP 6 hour precip total ending at 7z Friday morning...The yellow is 0.5" and each countour is 0.10" more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 09z sref would be a nice run for the far N GA posters. crushes western NC mtns I'm currently Mobile so please elaborate for me. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Funny - I just posted this elsewhere: "With a very slight jog north in the projected path, I'm starting to think 1"-3" will be limited to Spartanburg (really NE SPTG county) and Cherokee counties north of I-85, with the northern highlands of GVL, OCN and PIK counties still getting a decent event." Great minds think alike? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Am I the only one with concerns of the precip drying up in Mississippi right now. It looks to be well north. It has me worried for the Asheville area? Thoughts? Don't focus on the current radar trends in Mississippi. The storm is still developing / evolving, and the best dynamics and lift will occur over the mountains this afternoon and this evening. As far as I can tell, everything is still on track for 5-8" of snow in the AVL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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