FallsLake Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GSP mentions freezing rain in their discussion. Can't copy and paste with my iPad. That's basically after the storm has passed and the temps have dropped below freezing. Any residue moisture could fall has light freezing rain or drizzle. I've seen this a few times after a snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GSP mentions freezing rain in their discussion. Can't copy and paste with my iPad. It's more of a freezing drizzle aspect once the event is nearly completely over. Residual mid-level moisture may fall out onto sub-freezing surfaces, but nothing more than a light mist, drizzle, etc. Shouldn't be a big deal anyway, because by then most of the mountains will already be blanketed by 4-8" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 LOL. Stupid auto correct. PBS gives me IBS. My favorite part so far from last night's discussions... I know what happened on that month RAH HAVE NOT SEEN THIS MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKE PLACE SINCEPOSSIBLY JANUARY 2000 (BACK THEN...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MOREFAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I have a feeling I'm going to be bummed watching AL, TN and NC get snow while that nice warm air wraps around the north side of the ULL here in N GA. RAP does not look encouraging to me for N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Need help: can anyone give a clear indication of what will occur in the Upstate of SC? I've seen conflicting opinions from Deltadog/Foothills (very much appreciate their posts) vs GSP/local mets here. I greatly respect GSP but I've seen their office occasionally play "catch-up". GSP currently depicts accumulating snow (with its associated winter storm warnings) greatly diminishing right at the SC/NC line (even for places like Caesar's Head State Park [sC] at 3,200 feet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I have a feeling I'm going to be bummed watching AL, TN and NC get snow while that nice warm air wraps around the north side of the ULL here in N GA. RAP does not look encouraging to me for N GA. There appears to be some sort of dry nose that wants to work in from 700-850 near the 700/850mb lows after 18-20Z, the models all clearly show a nasty deformation band over NRN AL which crumbles as it crosses SERN TN/NRN GA/upstate SC...are they right? I don't know but I have seen this setup modeled before where you seem to be lacking RH in that 600-900 level (which the FFC AFD does mention by the way) and it usually seems to verify to an extent. The track of the 850/700 lows definitely would favor NRN GA as they are maybe 50-75 miles north of the 3/1/09 event which focused near ATL/ATH, but that funny drying/opening signature in the late aftn/eve worries me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Your best bet is to follow GSP. GSP is game on in these types of situations. I assume most local mets on here would make the same statement. GSP put out a great AFD a little after 4am this morning. Give it a read if you have not. Need help: can anyone give a clear indication of what will occur in the Upstate of SC? I've seen conflicting opinions from Deltadog/Foothills (very much appreciate their posts) vs GSP/local mets here. I greatly respect GSP but I've seen their office occasionally play "catch-up". GSP currently depicts accumulating snow (with its associated winter storm warnings) greatly diminishing right at the SC/NC line (even for places like Caesar's Head State Park [sC] at 3,200 feet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I have a feeling I'm going to be bummed watching AL, TN and NC get snow while that nice warm air wraps around the north side of the ULL here in N GA. RAP does not look encouraging to me for N GA. Yep...funny how that upper low just suddenly turns ne just in time to screw north ga (for the most part) then turns back east again after it passes? So you have MS, AL, far upstate SC, and most of NC getting hit pretty good (well hammered in NC) while we have our usual screwjob. Only hope we have some some sort of convection underneath or near the upper low before the moisture moves out and that's heavy enough to overcome that low leel warm air..for a brief snow shower or mix. That's about it. The upper low, 850mb low, etc is just too far north..we need it in south ga or something). . Hard pill to swallow watching it unfold like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Your best bet is to follow GSP. GSP is game on in these types of situations. I assume most local mets on here would make the same statement. GSP put out a great AFD a little after 4am this morning. Give it a read if you have not. Sorry Strong - much respect for you, and you know this man - but GSP for the upstate of SC is often sorely lagging, to the point of ridiculous sometimes. January 10-11 2011 will be a long standing bruise that broke my camel's back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Need help: can anyone give a clear indication of what will occur in the Upstate of SC? I've seen conflicting opinions from Deltadog/Foothills (very much appreciate their posts) vs GSP/local mets here. I greatly respect GSP but I've seen their office occasionally play "catch-up". GSP currently depicts accumulating snow (with its associated winter storm warnings) greatly diminishing right at the SC/NC line (even for places like Caesar's Head State Park [sC] at 3,200 feet). This storm is just not one that can be forecast 'clearly'. I am comparing it to March 1 '09. As I recall, having a kid in school at NGU, Greenville did not have nearly the snowfall that we had just a few miles East. GSP, by their own admission in the last update I saw, doesn't have a handle on the evolution yet. I'll be getting prepared regardless. Also, with these particular dynamics at play, elevation is relevant but not so much so. It's more of a trajectory issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Is the RAP something you can link here? I wonder if the 6z NAM not having a full ingest if info was why it cut precip in east tn??? 18z did too but 0z brought it back. What does the RAP show for east tn in general?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's cool to disagree. No problem. I also have been burned many times by GSP. However, the office is the local NWS office so I tend to roll with them come game time. However, this morning AFD was the first I have read cover to cover during the build up to this entire system. Personally, my money is on the folks here at AMWX and my boy at wxsouth for anything local Sorry Strong - much respect for you, and you know this man - but GSP for the upstate of SC is often sorely lagging, to the point of ridiculous sometimes. January 10-11 2011 will be a long standing bruise that broke my camel's back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ RAP is found here. Is the RAP something you can link here? I wonder if the 6z NAM not having a full ingest if info was why it cut precip in east tn??? 18z did too but 0z brought it back. What does the RAP show for east tn in general?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 There appears to be some sort of dry nose that wants to work in from 700-850 near the 700/850mb lows after 18-20Z, the models all clearly show a nasty deformation band over NRN AL which crumbles as it crosses SERN TN/NRN GA/upstate SC...are they right? I don't know but I have seen this setup modeled before where you seem to be lacking RH in that 600-900 level (which the FFC AFD does mention by the way) and it usually seems to verify to an extent. The track of the 850/700 lows definitely would favor NRN GA as they are maybe 50-75 miles north of the 3/1/09 event which focused near ATL/ATH, but that funny drying/opening signature in the late aftn/eve worries me. Yeah, the RAP clearly shows it. Just shreds that band up as it comes into N. GA then pulls it back together as it gets back to NC. Hopefully its wrong as it was not showing the on the late night runs of the RAP, but it seems to be very very possible, if not probable. Anyhow, Thanks for all the insight on N. GA! are you from the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The rap is showing some intense banding b/n 7pm and 12am over western NC. If that's all snow, we're talking 1 to 2 inch per hour rates. I could easily see someone getting 10 inches out of that over a 6 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Raysweather.com has gone with a 'Big Snow' this morning for the NC High Country with totals of 6" to 12". That will provide for great Alpine and Nordic skiing on Saturday ! High Friday after the snow of 30, and a High Tuesday next week in the single digits. Best of luck for everyone in North Carolina today to get a good coating of snow! Enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Mr.East just showed locally 6"+ for the triad and northern tier on his am forecast? I'm thinking it is time to pull the trigger on a generator. Any thoughts on wind speeds during the event? Is the snow weight the bigger concern? Edit: sorry, his graphic was 2"-6"+ locally. I missed the 2" on the graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The warm ground issue would not be a problem at all in those rates. I think the warm ground issue is entirely over-stated in events like these. Yes, the initial snow will melt but if your snowing 1-2 inches per hour on ground with snow melting, eventually it will stick in a hurry. Speaking from experience, on November 7, we were forecasting light accums across the tri-state (northeast around NYC), and some places ended up with over a foot. It even accumulated to 6 inches at my apartment on Long Island. We thought warm ground would limit accums. Another thing, it will be snowing when its dark. No solar radiation to effect the ground temps. Now if it the snow is very light, then yeah that will be a issue, but with everything we are seeing, the rates will be more than sufficient. The rap is showing some intense banding b/n 7pm and 12am over western NC. If that's all snow, we're talking 1 to 2 inch per hour rates. I could easily see someone getting 10 inches out of that over a 6 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 One thing of note, it definitely appears the snow band over Mississippi is further north than was modeled by last night's 00Z NAM which was one of the more southern models. Not totally a surprise, often times these upper lows and heavy snow bands are a bit north of where they are modeled to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 One thing of note, it definitely appears the snow band over Mississippi is further north than was modeled by last night's 00Z NAM which was one of the more southern models. Not totally a surprise, often times these upper lows and heavy snow bands are a bit north of where they are modeled to be. Hopefully you told the NoVA folks this, I imagine they are frustrated now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 *Side note.. But we all miss you sharing your thoughts down here man. Thanks for stopping in!!* The warm ground issue would not be a problem at all in those rates. I think the warm ground issue is entirely over-stated in events like these. Yes, the initial snow will melt but if your snowing 1-2 inches per hour on ground with snow melting, eventually it will stick in a hurry. Speaking from experience, on November 7, we were forecasting light accums across the tri-state (northeast around NYC), and some places ended up with over a foot. It even accumulated to 6 inches at my apartment on Long Island. We thought warm ground would limit accums. Another thing, it will be snowing when its dark. No solar radiation to effect the ground temps. Now if it the snow is very light, then yeah that will be a issue, but with everything we are seeing, the rates will be more than sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Im not so sure they will benefit from that too much. They will be battling the northern stream confluence... Hopefully you told the NoVA folks this, I imagine they are frustrated now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Im not so sure they will benefit from that too much. They will be battling the northern stream confluence... Is the PV chewing up there precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The rap is showing some intense banding b/n 7pm and 12am over western NC. If that's all snow, we're talking 1 to 2 inch per hour rates. I could easily see someone getting 10 inches out of that over a 6 hour period. It's also showing increased interaction with the some energy out of the polar/arctic jet which is making the ULL open up and pull it a hair north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I rarely post on these boards, speciically for the North east threads for reasons I do not want to get into, but I am more than happy to share my thoughts here when I have time and the situation arises. Too many respectable and good folks here. Im not so sure they will benefit from that too much. They will be battling the northern stream confluence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Its going to have trouble getting that far north due to the northern stream coming in. They will likely see some snow, but not as much as was mentioned yesterday. Is the PV chewing up there precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest run of the RAP seems to only hold the 500 mb low closed until it gets to roughly Charlotte. It then opens up for it's progression eastward. Weren't some of the models last night keeping this low closed all the way to the coast? I'm not sure of all the implications, but I believe the system would not be as strong if it opens up sooner. Thoughts? Here's the SE view from one forecast run earlier (10Z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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