John1122 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 MRX has temps much warmer for today with much more of the heavy precip falling as rain outside the mountains. It's got that feel of a last second East TN rug yanking. You still get snow in East TN from the 06Z NAM. Look on the bright side, the RAP will be much better now than the NAM or GFS. If you want to verify the NAM, look at the composite reflectivity and compare it to the current radars. If the current radars are much stronger, then the NAM isn't initializing it correctly to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 MRX has temps much warmer for today with much more of the heavy precip falling as rain outside the mountains. It's got that feel of a last second East TN rug yanking. Happens around here all of the time, i would not be the least bit suprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Helicity showing up under that strong Def. band and strong UVV's tomorrow night in upstate to southern and central NC. It shows up last few frames. The thunder is going to roar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 MRX has temps much warmer for today with much more of the heavy precip falling as rain outside the mountains. It's got that feel of a last second East TN rug yanking. As Miles Davis would say, "So what?" You get model run after model run looking better and better, then you get one run and MRX being conservative and you get all Debbie Downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Some random thoughts for those in the NC NW Foothills and and Western Piedmont region of NC. We could either big the big losers on this one with the snow around us on all sides or the big winner with the enhanced moisture if that's possible with the upper air features due to upslope. On most model runs in the last 24hrs. I'm starting to see each on with what looks like an dry slot or it might even be a semi- downslope event. I don't know if it is due to what HKY has pointed out with a phase with the northern stream. But, I also see on the 700mb RAP that the moisture is pointed right @ us to enhance the rates with a upslope event. Have fun, stay safe and as Robert has stated prepare as if you will have no power. I have seen snowfall rates like this only a couple of times in my life time. The one that sticks out to me was in the mid to late 90's while @ ASU. I think Robert or anyone who was around that area would agree it looked like 3x5 index card falling from the sky( maybe not quite that size but the flakes were huge). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey, CMan! How are you expecting to do down there? What are you telling the folks? Tony Edit: Just looks like the train isn't cemented on the track, comparing runs. And from the loop it still looks to spread out down this way too. Heh... That's a very good question! The snow out in MS certainly has my attention. We'll have to see how far east the snow makes it before it starts turning northeast. As of now, I'm going with a cold rain (MAYBE a flurry mixed in), if any..., for Columbus and points south. A rain/snow mix with no accumulations between Columbus and Auburn over to Talbotton. There's a chance we'll see accumulating snow, a dusting to less than half inch, depending on rates, near La Grange and Roanoke over to Woodbury. North and west of Roanoke stand the best chance of seeing accumulations. Atlanta could see a dusting, but if this thing makes it more east before turning northeast, they could see more. There will be a few surprises and this basically becomes a "lookout the window" forecast and watch for the turn northeast. I'm not expecting it to start here for another 10-12 hours... So, we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Helicity showing up under that strong Def. band and strong UVV's tomorrow night in upstate to southern and central NC. It shows up last few frames. The thunder is going to roar. helicitysnow.gif Winter storm warnings are up for the Piedmont of NC. This one sounds a little dangerous if Robert is correct (which I believe he is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Helicity showing up under that strong Def. band and strong UVV's tomorrow night in upstate to southern and central NC. It shows up last few frames. The thunder is going to roar. helicitysnow.gif Soundings for DAN are wicked ready for Thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzbyrd Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I have live in ETn for almost 13 years, and every year we get the screw job. My hubby keeps saying he won't believe it til it's laying on the ground. I knew the folks in MRX would bring totals down. Just like I know we are going to miss out once again. You'd think we live in Florida or something. Ah, well.....maybe for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbritt Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Local TV meteorologists are saying mostly rain for the Upstate of SC, no accumulations of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Great Disco last night folks! GSP has upped the southern foothills to a WS warning for 3-5". Great progression as I awake in the morning! I for one would love 2,3 of 4" and hour rate. Never seen more than 2" and hour rates! Good luck all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looking at RAP it has CLT going to snow by hour 18 just as the really heavy stuff is moving in bound. Got a real good feeling about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 WXII still saying 1-3 but Fox 8 has bumped it up and is now showing this area in the 4-6 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 One inch now in Starkville, MS. It's also snowing in Hattiesburg, MS. Jackson got 1 to 2 inches so far in spite of temps around 33 or 34 and warm ground temps. Next in line, Meridian along I20/59 and into Birmingham, AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAP 850's vs Sim radar looking pretty sexy for ETN/WNC/SWVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looking at RAP it has CLT going to snow by hour 18 just as the really heavy stuff is moving in bound. Got a real good feeling about this one. I agree. The RAP is spitting out over .25 inches of precip around our areas at hour 17 and 18. It won't take but about 3 hours of that for this to be a really special event. Robert keeps stressing that this might be the hardest we ever see it snow. Looks like fun! 40 DBZ returns looks to follow the gap between I-40 and I-85! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Austin just bumped it up to 4-6 and is talking about thunder snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAP 850's vs Sim radar looking pretty sexy for ETN/WNC/SWVA It's 36 at my house which is colder than forecasted by MRX tonight. The moisture looks rich so we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's 36 at my house which is colder than forecasted by MRX tonight. The moisture looks rich so we will see what happens. damn, 36 at your house? 40 at TYS and 40 imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Folks we do have a obs thread up. Maybe some of these ibs could roll on over to it !Glad MS is cashing in !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Folks we do have a PBS thread up. Maybe some of these ibs could roll on over to it ! Glad MS is cashing in !!! PBS gives me IBS. My favorite part so far from last night's discussions... I know what happened on that month RAH HAVE NOT SEEN THIS MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKE PLACE SINCEPOSSIBLY JANUARY 2000 (BACK THEN...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MOREFAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 PBS gives me IBS. My favorite part so far from last night's discussions... I know what happened on that month RAH HAVE NOT SEEN THIS MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKE PLACE SINCEPOSSIBLY JANUARY 2000 (BACK THEN...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MOREFAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW). That is also what they are worried about. All the models show the dynamic cooling but "if" it does not start when it is modeled snow amounts will be less... they said maybe half that's currently forecasted. I think this could still fail bad or we could still get way more than what's forecasted. **This is fun** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here was the 06Z GFS snow map through 30 hours. I know it's a global model and all that. But, nobody has posted it yet, so have a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Unless I'm reading the RAP wrong, it looks like it gets colder as you go down in the atmosphere. Is there a possibility of ice? Or heavy sleet? Thanks, I'm still an amateur at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Unless I'm reading the RAP wrong, it looks like it gets colder as you go down in the atmosphere. Is there a possibility of ice? Or heavy sleet? Thanks, I'm still an amateur at this. This storm will be snow or no. there's no chance of sleet or freezing rain that i can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This storm will be snow or no. there's no chance of sleet or freezing rain that i can see. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GSP mentions freezing rain in their discussion. Can't copy and paste with my iPad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Matthews video is updated. http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/2013/01/early-morning-thoughts.html?m=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The Greer office does mention the potential later this evening and early overnight for the foothills where we have enough moisture below the snow growth layer and light freezing rain could occur before it all moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Early morning update from KGSP Link dynamically updates Snow Freezing Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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