GaWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 For KATL: The 0Z Thu Euro which, gets it down to ~-1.5 C at 850 mb (~4K feet in the air above ATL), is close to 1.5 C colder than the 12Z Wed. Euro (barely below 0C), which itself was colder than the 0Z Wed. Euro. So, the colder trend of the Euro continues. It drops about 0.35" once the 850's get below 0C. Due to this and the encouraging 0Z Thu NAM, I now think there will likely be close to 2" to accumulate on grassy surfaces over many of the northern ATL burbs with as much as ~3" in a few spots within the area! Regarding the timing, I still think pure snow will start ~4 PM, but now think it will last til near 8-9 PM vs. my earlier thinking of it ending near 7 PM. I'm guessing ~1" at KATL (airport, which is on the southside), itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 At hr18 on the RAP, there are a couple small pockets of 1-hour precip totals of 0.25+ inches in W NC / E TN Well it's almost 2am and things have slowed in here a bit. Nice to see Robert. As I suspect all the mods are asleep I will now try and accomplish something I've wanted to do for almost 10 years. How much for Archdale? Damn, that felt good. 4 to 8" That sound about right? Hard to say, but if you get convection it wll pile up quickly on elevated surfaces. Look at the latest RAP 7 H and UVV maps....WOW, what a deformation band, extends to eastern Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks Robert. I have to eat crow on this storm so I hope I get enough to make it worthwhile. I've spent time in those bands before. Always exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks Robert. I have to eat crow on this storm so I hope I get enough to make it worthwhile. I've spent time in those bands before. Always exciting. I'm eating crow too. I had no expectation that it'd snow in Knoxville, much less in MS. Right now there is probably a good half inch or so in metro Jackson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm eating crow too. I had no expectation that it'd snow in Knoxville, much less in MS. Right now there is probably a good half inch or so in metro Jackson. I'm still expecting nothing but rain here in Upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm still expecting nothing but rain here in Upstate SC. LOL ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm still expecting nothing but rain here in Upstate SC. If the NAM is correct, you have to be going mentally insane from the lack of Winter so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..0135 AM SNOW MADISON 32.45N 90.11W01/17/2013 E0.3 INCH MADISON MS BROADCAST MEDIA SNOW BEGINNING TO STICK WITH SLUSH BUILDING UP ON SIDEWALKS AND STREETS ... and it begins. The DOT webcams out of Jackson are showing some good snowfall rates. There's also a band of snow parked over I20 just west of Vicksburg in LA that must be putting down a very good 1-2" an hour. EDIT: Radar out of Jackson just switched into snow mode. Highest reflectivity is 35-40db, which is off the scale of the snowmode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 07 RAP seems to be a hair North of 06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 07 RAP seems to be a hair North of 06. It's starting to get much deeper on the backside on the RAP. It's already pretty deep over in west central MS. The radar reflectivity is very impressive for this storm being so early. 40 and 41dbz values have been showing up over there. When they switched to high reflectivity mode on the radar out of Brandon it was lit up like a christmas tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 LOL ! If the NAM is correct, you have to be going mentally insane from the lack of Winter so far! I know it looks bad but I have been burned by these systems too much over the last few years to think this one will be any different then just a cold rain. Here's to hoping I eat crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://imgur.com/reeUc'> definite interaction with the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks Robert. I have to eat crow on this storm so I hope I get enough to make it worthwhile. I've spent time in those bands before. Always exciting. Good luck, Burnsy! I'm pulling for you. Robert, I hope you got your tree trimming done a head this time! Sure sounds like an anomalous storm could come thru. Per the Doc, and Larry's assessment this looks like the northside will get the brunt this time, so Greg won't be disappointed like when I got hammered with the last two ULLs, lol. Good luck all. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's starting to get much deeper on the backside on the RAP. It's already pretty deep over in west central MS. The radar reflectivity is very impressive for this storm being so early. 40 and 41dbz values have been showing up over there. When they switched to high reflectivity mode on the radar out of Brandon it was lit up like a christmas tree. this is the beginning of the circulation....and very powerful. I wish I had hit it more in my video, as now I know Ms , Al, Ga will get hit quite hard under the core, despite time of day. Tomorrow night will be incredible in eastern Alabama and northern Georgia to eastern TN, western NC, upstate SC and southwest VA . Just following the vapor and RAP on this now. All systems go. If you recall the Carolina Crusher in the eastern halves (Raleigh, Triad, VA, etc) this could end up being the version for northern Ga, ETN, western half NC, upstate SC regions. Usually, either the mountains or the eastern sections get smacked hard, but hardly ever the Upstate or foothills or western PIedmont of NC. This one looks dead aim in that area. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. I seriously doubt there will be many people with power in western third of NC by this time tomorrow...probably same for northeast TN and southwest VA regions. The vertical velocities are through the roof and getting stronger each run. I somehow hope to avoid the March 2009 catastrophe again...only saving grace is the speed I guess, but these rates are shown to be even worse, which is hard to imagine. Guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Good luck, Burnsy! I'm pulling for you. Robert, I hope you got your tree trimming done a head this time! Sure sounds like an anomalous storm could come thru. Per the Doc, and Larry's assessment this looks like the northside will get the brunt this time, so Greg won't be disappointed like when I got hammered with the last two ULLs, lol. Good luck all. T Thanks Tony, I've been working on the trees for 3 straight years now. We're good here. There is one that bugs me, over the kitchen. Every time an MCC blows through I get nervous , but thats about it. But that is the one that halfway crashed into the ceiling....the other is over my bedroom, but that got sawed down right after March 09 and now I have a new Sugar Maple there, and it's not toppling anytime too soon. I still think the worst will be just to my north and west on this, with 2" or maybe 3" per hour rates at times. I wouldnt' mind seeing a few flakes though. It's been 2 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 this is the beginning of the circulation....and very powerful. I wish I had hit it more in my video, as now I know Ms , Al, Ga will get hit quite hard under the core, despite time of day. Tomorrow night will be incredible in eastern Alabama and northern Georgia to eastern TN, western NC, upstate SC and southwest VA . Just following the vapor and RAP on this now. All systems go. If you recall the Carolina Crusher in the eastern halves (Raleigh, Triad, VA, etc) this could end up being the version for northern Ga, ETN, western half NC, upstate SC regions. Usually, either the mountains or the eastern sections get smacked hard, but hardly ever the Upstate or foothills or western PIedmont of NC. This one looks dead aim in that area. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. I seriously doubt there will be many people with power in western third of NC by this time tomorrow...probably same for northeast TN and southwest VA regions. The vertical velocities are through the roof and getting stronger each run. I somehow hope to avoid the March 2009 catastrophe again...only saving grace is the speed I guess, but these rates are shown to be even worse, which is hard to imagine. Guess we'll see. Yeah maybe Knoxville can make up the snow drought with this. If we get 3-6" city wide I'll be impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I am slightly concerned at the speed of the system, but being on a county in the central valley of TN that borders NC I have to like my chances for some accums. I can look out my window and see the Smokies. I can't wait to watch this storm unfold. Thanks Foothills and others for making this more enjoyable for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 this is the beginning of the circulation....and very powerful. I wish I had hit it more in my video, as now I know Ms , Al, Ga will get hit quite hard under the core, despite time of day. Tomorrow night will be incredible in eastern Alabama and northern Georgia to eastern TN, western NC, upstate SC and southwest VA . Just following the vapor and RAP on this now. All systems go. If you recall the Carolina Crusher in the eastern halves (Raleigh, Triad, VA, etc) this could end up being the version for northern Ga, ETN, western half NC, upstate SC regions. Usually, either the mountains or the eastern sections get smacked hard, but hardly ever the Upstate or foothills or western PIedmont of NC. This one looks dead aim in that area. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. I seriously doubt there will be many people with power in western third of NC by this time tomorrow...probably same for northeast TN and southwest VA regions. The vertical velocities are through the roof and getting stronger each run. I somehow hope to avoid the March 2009 catastrophe again...only saving grace is the speed I guess, but these rates are shown to be even worse, which is hard to imagine. Guess we'll see. Thanks again for posting here Robert. Looking forward to getting crushed later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 1" in Vicksburg, MS 1" in Jackson, MS It's still coming down in buckets on MS DOT webcams in Jackson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 6z NAM really backs off of some totals at least in TN, not that the model is worth watching at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 6z NAM really backs off of some totals at least in TN, not that the model is worth watching at this juncture I wouldn't take those verbatim right now. It's not picking up on the snow that's now occurring in MS, and if you take the 60+ hour accumulation you take into account melting that will happen in TN on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I wouldn't take those verbatim right now. It's not picking up on the snow that's now occurring in MS, and if you take the 60+ hour accumulation you take into account melting that will happen in TN on Friday. looking at the 24 hr snowfall accums. the pricip does lift out much sooner on this run for ETN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 go with RAP now. Its less than 18 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 looking at the 24 hr snowfall accums. the pricip does lift out much sooner on this run for ETN. It's not accurately representing the base reflectivity that's currently showing up. I'd say it's going to undercut precip for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks Tony, I've been working on the trees for 3 straight years now. We're good here. There is one that bugs me, over the kitchen. Every time an MCC blows through I get nervous , but thats about it. But that is the one that halfway crashed into the ceiling....the other is over my bedroom, but that got sawed down right after March 09 and now I have a new Sugar Maple there, and it's not toppling anytime too soon. I still think the worst will be just to my north and west on this, with 2" or maybe 3" per hour rates at times. I wouldnt' mind seeing a few flakes though. It's been 2 years now. Well, I"m sure glad to here you're back on snow, lol. I think when the top mets want snow for themselves it makes the whole show go better, lol. Got to be an amazing time ahead to get rates like that! I've seen some great rates before down here and they were always big, sloppy flakes where you wondered if you'd be able to breath. And I caught one in the Black Forest in Germany that was a total mind blower, and one of my favorite snows for the surroundings as much as anything else. Right out of a fairy tale. Big time flakes at big time rates.... Now that's cool. All we needed was a wolf and a girl in a red cloak, lol. Good luck, my friend, and I hope you get hammered, but in a nice way this time!! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Definitely have the RAP up, just thought the NAM was interesting. Meanwhile MRX lowers my snow totals from 3-6 to 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 06z just lays the shaft to East Tennessee compared to the last 36 hours or so. Nightmarish if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 06z just lays the shaft to East Tennessee compared to the last 36 hours or so. Nightmarish if true. You still get snow in East TN from the 06Z NAM. Look on the bright side, the RAP will be much better now than the NAM or GFS. If you want to verify the NAM, look at the composite reflectivity and compare it to the current radars. If the current radars are much stronger, then the NAM isn't initializing it correctly to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey, CMan! How are you expecting to do down there? What are you telling the folks? Tony Edit: Just looks like the train isn't cemented on the track, comparing runs. And from the loop it still looks to spread out down this way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbritt Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 06z just lays the shaft to East Tennessee compared to the last 36 hours or so. Nightmarish if true. Not a good run for the Upstate of SC either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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