MotoWeatherman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Soundings aren't even close to snow. All I know is that look of that predicted radar is nice! Hopefully those who know more than me are correct in saying that is snow. You care to venture a call for North GA? Sorry to put you on the spot, LOL I've been burned by the last two ULL's so I'm kind of jaded with these things while others have hit the jackpot. At least on those others the soundings showed the change over to snow so you could more easily see it coming. I am pessimistic about this for GA based on pretty much zero model sounding support for anything major. I'm thinking an inch or two north of ATL at best from the alabama line up to Toccoa. Basically north of ATL and north of I-85. I really hope I'm wrong because the dynamics and 5h and 7h low tracks are just about perfect for someone up here to get 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 That's the pictured storm in my avatar. 20" here just south of High Point on the Randolph/Guilford county line. Amounts fell off rapidly as you went north. I think the airport, only about 15 miles north of me, ended up with 8" Most of it fell in 5 hours. Three hours of thunder snow here with that one. Jburns....you are accurate. I lived in HP at the time and had to drive to Galax for an appointment that morning. Left the driveway with a solid 8" measurement and drove to the airport to pick up an associate. 7" at the airport "roughly" measured on the cars. Drove out I-40 to Hwy 52. By the time we hit north of Pilot Mtn we were on mostly clear roads. Crazy how quickly the snow totals dropped off over a 20 mile stretch (as the crow flies). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I have been heavily basing my forecast off synoptics many, many years. Yes, snow will occur in Atlanta but the lion's share will be just north of there. The track is pretty good for Atlanta, northward, and surprising things always accompany the northwest shield of upper lows. Very much agree on NAM being a leader on this, which is very weird (except that the previous 2 upper lows this fall it did well on, GFS and ECMWF, not good). It surely has the hot streak, and aloft 5H systems look similar with 2 contour cutoff cruising by Atlanta/Athens. No doubt, snow and sleet will turn over there tomorrow afternoon. Timing isnt' great, but I think it will be very , very significant. Get into northeast GA and Upstate, a much bigger deal. I won't be suprised to see the core wrap completely around , clipping Atlanta very well by afternoon. No model really shows this, but using synoptics and climo, I bet it happens. Hate to ask this but how much could you see falling in your "lion's share area" just north of Atlanta. I ask because you're really the only one that's optimistic on our snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 First station that I could find in MS reporting snow is.... *drum roll* McComb, MS. Yes, they are reporting light snow at 34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What's the next hi-res run coming out....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I've been burned by the last two ULL's so I'm kind of jaded with these things while others have hit the jackpot. At least on those others the soundings showed the change over to snow so you could more easily see it coming. I am pessimistic about this for GA based on pretty much zero model sounding support for anything major. I'm thinking an inch or two north of ATL at best from the alabama line up to Toccoa. Basically north of ATL and north of I-85. I really hope I'm wrong because the dynamics and 5h and 7h low tracks are just about perfect for someone up here to get 4-6". Thanks Jason! I hear ya about being burned. I think me and you both were burned in 2009, ATL getting thundersnow and us getting a couple flakes and rain. Hopefully we can get an hour or 2 of decent rates and I'll be happy. 4 to 6 wouldn't be bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hate to ask this but how much could you see falling in your "lion's share area" just north of Atlanta. I ask because you're really the only one that's optimistic on our snow chances. under the cold core its hard to say, but the lions share will probably be northeast sections of the state. but again, the core itself is strong through Atlanta, and they can detach their own precip band. could be sleet , or snow or some combo. Pretty much anywhere in central GA even south of Atlanta. But the really strong deformation band is probably just north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 under the cold core its hard to say, but the lions share will probably be northeast sections of the state. but again, the core itself is strong through Atlanta, and they can detach their own precip band. could be sleet , or snow or some combo. Pretty much anywhere in central GA even south of Atlanta. But the really strong deformation band is probably just north of there. Thanks for the response! 'Preciate you posting over here in addition to your website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks for the response! 'Preciate you posting over here in addition to your website. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So WRAL starts acknowledging that there could be "heaps" of snow at RDU. They say: Some forecasting models show as many as 4 inches falling in Raleigh to 5.5 inches in Roxboro, but WRAL Chief Meteorologist Greg Fishel said it all depends on how hard the storm hits. “The ground is very, very warm, and if it doesn't snow hard enough to overcome that warm ground, then that’s going to cut the amounts down. If it snows really, really hard for two or three hours, which it could in many areas, especially from the Triangle north and west, then that could overcome the warm ground and pile up the snow.”--Greg Fishel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Current Meso shows 18z along with 00z NAM being dead accurate on the ULL placement for this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 These webcams should be neat to watch over the next 24 hours. http://brpwebcams.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 These webcams should be neat to watch over the next 24 hours. http:// brpwebcams.org/ Just saw bigfoot on the Balsam cam. Those things are creepy at night! Thanks for the links! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 These webcams should be neat to watch over the next 24 hours. http://brpwebcams.org/'>http://brpwebcams.org/ Great link. Wish we could be up there...hope there's not too much tree damage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 These webcams should be neat to watch over the next 24 hours. http://brpwebcams.org/'>http://brpwebcams.org/ Thanks for this. I own a couple of acres a few miles north of the Mineral Museum. I can keep an eye on the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 These webcams should be neat to watch over the next 24 hours. http://brpwebcams.org/ Very cool, didn't know those existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So WRAL starts acknowledging that there could be "heaps" of snow at RDU. They say: Guess Fishel is starting to play catch up with it. When I saw that I had to laugh a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's the battle of FFC vs BMX once again. Who will win ? Who knows. BMX has 2-4" for the county 15 miles west of me which if you extrapolate eastward would mean 2-4" for most of Metro Atlanta. Meanwhile, FFC says little to no accumulation for me. There's even a Warning for one of the AL counties bordering GA while the county immediately east of it in Georgia is not even under a Watch ! I guess only time will tell which of these forecast offices is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey guys, glad to see you have a really good threat on the horizon! I hope everyone sees as much snow as the models are depicting. i think the event may surprise many because of the dynamics alone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 just looked at the progression of RAP model through hour 18. We're looking down the barrel of a very special event here. Look for your local forecasters and NWS offices to react soon, with more vigor. This is almost an unprecedented event, but March 2009 is the lastest we can find , I'm sure there are others. The upper low is taking shape now in western Mississippi and will close almost to 3 contours by Atlanta, taking on negative tilt. At first, the heavy rains, but the 850s' really crash in Alabama and Georgia, and this will spell a world of hurt when the moisture totally wraps around the 5H low, not to mention the 7H low. and 850. The track will absolutely cream eastern TN at first then spill quickly into western NC mountains and foothills by dark. The track of the 5H is probably mishandled by all models, as I've been saying for days. On the northwest side, you're looking at some convection and serious rates of snowfall. This will probably eclipse the 2009 event in parts of western NC and VA because this airmass is actually juicier than that one. Look at the water potential maps on this one, unbelievable. Turn that into snowfall in western NC and VA, eastern TN, and northeast GA and I think we could be looking at a really unprecedented event. Same goes for everywhere northwest of the upper low in northern Alabama, northern to central GA and then a nearly stationary band for Upstate SC to western NC for a while. The RATE of snowfall will be extreme, I can't express that enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro pretty much the same for NC, 540 thickness are now SE of Wake County at 6z on Friday, which is better than the 12z run. Yes, I stayed up for the Euro, who knows when will be the next time we see a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 hey man, glad to see your still here! I am rooting for you guys! Thanks for the update, wish I could Euro details like this from home. I assume the QPF, 850, 700 lows are similar as well? Euro pretty much the same for NC, 540 thickness are now SE of Wake County at 6z on Friday, which is better than the 12z run. Yes, I stayed up for the Euro, who knows when will be the next time we see a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 just looked at the progression of RAP model through hour 18. We're looking down the barrel of a very special event here. Look for your local forecasters and NWS offices to react soon, with more vigor. This is almost an unprecedented event, but March 2009 is the lastest we can find , I'm sure there are others. The upper low is taking shape now in western Mississippi and will close almost to 3 contours by Atlanta, taking on negative tilt. At first, the heavy rains, but the 850s' really crash in Alabama and Georgia, and this will spell a world of hurt when the moisture totally wraps around the 5H low, not to mention the 7H low. and 850. The track will absolutely cream eastern TN at first then spill quickly into western NC mountains and foothills by dark. The track of the 5H is probably mishandled by all models, as I've been saying for days. On the northwest side, you're looking at some convection and serious rates of snowfall. This will probably eclipse the 2009 event in parts of western NC and VA because this airmass is actually juicier than that one. Look at the water potential maps on this one, unbelievable. Turn that into snowfall in western NC and VA, eastern TN, and northeast GA and I think we could be looking at a really unprecedented event. Same goes for everywhere northwest of the upper low in northern Alabama, northern to central GA and then a nearly stationary band for Upstate SC to western NC for a while. The RATE of snowfall will be extreme, I can't express that enough. I know it's not been mentioned alot...but what are your thoughts on charlotte? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Interesting. Latest RAP(formerly RUC) is showing some northern streaming phasing/interaction on the backside now out to hour 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 hey man, glad to see your still here! I am rooting for you guys! Thanks for the update, wish I could Euro details like this from home. I assume the QPF, 850, 700 lows are similar as well? Thanks SBUWX23, I am still bummed the PACK freaking lost by 1 point tonight to MD! I can't see everything yet, just the surface and thicknesses, but the 540 thickness crashing SE of RDU is very good. Looks like 850's crash around 10pm and it snows hard for about 3-4 hours I would guess. Euro is spitting out 0.71" of precip after 0z on Friday, so hopefully atleast 0.5" of that is snow, hopefully we can get 2-3" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 To more experienced forecasters: is there any way the ULL can go 50 miles or so further South or is nothing supportive of that currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Interesting. Latest RAP(formerly RUC) is showing some northern streaming phasing/interaction on the backside now out to hour 18. What would the implications of this be? A stronger, more wrapped up system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 just looked at the progression of RAP model through hour 18. We're looking down the barrel of a very special event here. Look for your local forecasters and NWS offices to react soon, with more vigor. This is almost an unprecedented event, but March 2009 is the lastest we can find , I'm sure there are others. The upper low is taking shape now in western Mississippi and will close almost to 3 contours by Atlanta, taking on negative tilt. At first, the heavy rains, but the 850s' really crash in Alabama and Georgia, and this will spell a world of hurt when the moisture totally wraps around the 5H low, not to mention the 7H low. and 850. The track will absolutely cream eastern TN at first then spill quickly into western NC mountains and foothills by dark. The track of the 5H is probably mishandled by all models, as I've been saying for days. On the northwest side, you're looking at some convection and serious rates of snowfall. This will probably eclipse the 2009 event in parts of western NC and VA because this airmass is actually juicier than that one. Look at the water potential maps on this one, unbelievable. Turn that into snowfall in western NC and VA, eastern TN, and northeast GA and I think we could be looking at a really unprecedented event. Same goes for everywhere northwest of the upper low in northern Alabama, northern to central GA and then a nearly stationary band for Upstate SC to western NC for a while. The RATE of snowfall will be extreme, I can't express that enough. Robert - the one that this reminds me of the most is 02/15/04. Highest total I have from that one was 11 inches in Summertown, TN Here are the maps: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us0215.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us0216.php http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040215.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This is an incredible upper low...even though the 5h feature is warmer aloft , the shape and tilt and relative vorticity is probably greater than the March 2009 event. Taking the same approximate track (maybe a little more north) Regardless, once your under and north and west of that circulation center, the snow will fall in a fashion you won't see very often in your lifetime. It's short-lived, but will be something to witness thats for sure. And to think, just a couple days ago the ECMWF had this as a weak 1 contour that was fizzling out by Alabama. I am very serious when I say that power lines and trees are going to take a major hit from this. If you've never experienced 2" per hour rates and thundersnow, some of you will on that nw shield. Get ready! 18hr RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The center of that looks to be dead on Atlanta. Like dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.