Jon Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Local TV mets still being conservative with 1 to 3 inches around here. Yes...especially WRAL. They will up these totals come tomorrow if the trend continues, there's no reason to up them tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I will honestly not care what the total is if I see a 3" per hour rate and/or some thundersnow Same here. I'll drive out to Carrboro if I have to. It sure as hell won't do anything like that down here in the lee of Jordan Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 i'm not sure i'd call 2-4 vs 3-6 a huge difference bro. at least that's what she said. 2-4 vs. 6-10 seems like a lot, but what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-storm-on-tap-for-carolinas forecast Thanks Brandon! Now if you can get brother to man up and increase his totals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 When do you think my neck of the woods will cool the column enough to switch it over tomorrow? I would think in the afternoon up that way. I don't think you have all that much to worry about up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yes...especially WRAL. They will up these totals come tomorrow if the trend continues, there's no reason to up them tonight. Yeah, Mike Maze already hinted that they might be low due to some of the new data that has come in. With RAH already mentioning they might have to up totals, I wouldn't be surprised to see WRAL do the same tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 BMX pulls the trigger. * LOCATION...OF THE HEAVIER TOTALS WILL BE NORTH OF A DEMOPOLIS... TO CLANTON...TO ROANOKE LINE. * ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO THREE INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 INCHES... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. If continue that line into GA that would include basically all of metro ATL. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS looks almost identical to NAM tonight at 5H. Have folks forgot what strong upper lows do on this track. This is one exquisite track for changing rain to snow suddenly along and northwest of it's track. Hi Res NAM leads the way , and should be the model of choice, as it was in the previous 2 upper lows last Fall, when GFS and ECMWF joined late. The details here mean a lot, and upper lows are best portrayed by high res models. The column crashes with the upper low as it moves east then northeast, along I-85 from Atlanta to Charlotte to Raleight ( notice GFS now is closed to Elizabeth City now). NAM has led the way the entire time on this event, as much as I hate to admit. GFS looks much like NAM maybe shorter lived by a fraction, but remember deformation bands die a slow death in the lee of the Apps. I've seen it a few times and upper lows are kind of my specialty, and damming. This will be a very remarkable event, once the upper low wraps the precip around its core , beginning in Alabama, then stretching in a very nice deformation axis from Richmond to just north of Atlanta tomorrow night. The Carolina peeps should be in hog heaven with this track, despite marginal 850's. Dynamic forcing through the roof for 4 to 6 hours under that band, and some areas more, namely southern VA and western NC mtns, eastern TN where cold is first to arrive. But the absolute best lift, tilt and forcing from being on the northwest side is just north of Atlanta, through the western Carolinas into southern VA and that all slides east overnight....only slowly weakening aloft, which is usually overdone some. Thunder and lightning on the nw shield as well, which will make some insane rates for some areas. Hard to say exactly where that ends up, but it will certainly happen. Unfortunately, the downslope may cause a warm bubble too, but that's hard to predict in the lee as well. Overall, this will go down as one of the best Upper Low type storms from northern Alabama through much of the Carolinas and southern Virginia I think, and could approach the March 2009 system in some areas, but that's hard to say exactly where. This one looks faster than that, and that could save many folks , but still when you get 2" per hour or even 3" per hour under the convection, you'll see firsthand what can happen with upper lows. After the fourth hour, the trees start really creaking and making scary noises. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Great post Robert. Looking to get hammered here in the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAH just upped its totals in the updated WSWatch to 2-4+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 When do you think my neck of the woods will cool the column enough to switch it over tomorrow? I don't think we'll have much problem switching over. I'd say mid-afternoon sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Dang Robert, you got me snow horney! LOL calm down. Just get the chainsaw out and get to work on that wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks Brandon! Now if you can get brother to man up and increase his totals.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 LOL calm down. Just get the chainsaw out and get to work on that wood. RNK has me under winter weather adv. 1-2 inches possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yes...especially WRAL. They will up these totals come tomorrow if the trend continues, there's no reason to up them tonight. I agree 1-3 or 2-4, not that big a difference. GFS is 4-5" for Wake and NAM is 5-6", that's with 10:1, assuming we get 5:1 or 6:1, 2-4" is probably best case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 - Get your popcorn ready. Should be a good one for some folks! Temps here in bham have been in the low 40's all day. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well, locals mentioning flakes (no travel issues etc) for CAE North. Here in Lexington, we are barely scraping our teeth with the 540 passing through here. I'm hoping for a shift South to get the whole county. I'd rather see a couple flakes falling than nothing. Any shift North will take it away though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm very concerned about the hole showing up over this area on the hi rez NAM snow maps. It's the perfect screwjob. Snow in a straight line stretching from Southern Mississippi to Virginia, with the notable exception of the Chattanooga metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 DT's final call map. Still has Wilkes county with 9-12", lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 DT's final call map. Still has Wilkes county with 9-12", lol He still has ROA 50 miles labeled too far SW. I'm leaning on the lower side of 9-12" in these parts. I think 6" would be a good number. Anything more would be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 DT's final call map. Still has Wilkes county with 9-12", lol This looks like something out of "A Beautiful Mind" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Amazing how the NAM nailed the idea of a much stronger and longer closed system. Bummer part for N GA IMHO is potential for expectation bust being that almost no model soundings really support much snow. But based on the track of the 5h/7h lows, areas north of ATL should be jackpot. You pretty much just have to say that the models are wrong on the temps profiles across N GA and go with synoptics to forecast 2-4" type of accumulations here. It will be a total bummer if this Hi Res nam reflectivity image verifies and those nice yellow returns are rain tomorrow across N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Have fun everyone. While yall are worrying about how many inches you're going to get, I'm still hoping I can eek out a little token snow Friday morning from this thing. It's happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I remember when I was in Highpoint in Feb 2004 for the winter storm that dropped tons of snow over night like 10-17 inches in some places not saying this much is going to fall but, If that deform bands sets up right..... people will be shocked at the intensity of the snowfall.... driving would be impossible. Dont be fooled once the heavy precip starts this will allow cold air aloft to crash towards the surface the change over will happen very quickly. Am northeast of Greensboro and am excited by what the models are showing. That's the pictured storm in my avatar. 20" here just south of High Point on the Randolph/Guilford county line. Amounts fell off rapidly as you went north. I think the airport, only about 15 miles north of me, ended up with 8" Most of it fell in 5 hours. Three hours of thunder snow here with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Amazing how the NAM nailed the idea of a much stronger and longer closed system. Bummer part for N GA IMHO is potential for expectation bust being that almost no model soundings really support much snow. But based on the track of the 5h/7h lows, areas north of ATL should be jackpot. You pretty much just have to say that the models are wrong on the temps profiles across N GA and go with synoptics to forecast 2-4" type of accumulations here. It will be a total bummer if this Hi Res nam reflectivity image verifies and those nice yellow returns are rain tomorrow across N GA. Soundings aren't even close to snow. All I know is that look of that predicted radar is nice! Hopefully those who know more than me are correct in saying that is snow. You care to venture a call for North GA? Sorry to put you on the spot, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 DT's final call map. Still has Wilkes county with 9-12", lol I don't like the map. It's somewhat accurate but doesn't take the mountains really into effect. Areas above 5000' will likely see up to 16+" of snow with this along the TN/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I don't like the map. It's somewhat accurate but doesn't take the mountains really into effect. Areas above 5000' will likely see up to 16+" of snow with this along the TN/NC border. Looks almost like he just drew the 0z GFS snowfall map to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The latest from BMX... Could be setting up for another BMX-FFC battle tomorrow as FFC is much less optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I don't like the map. It's somewhat accurate but doesn't take the mountains really into effect. Areas above 5000' will likely see up to 16+" of snow with this along the TN/NC border. Ya the boarder is going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Amazing how the NAM nailed the idea of a much stronger and longer closed system. Bummer part for N GA IMHO is potential for expectation bust being that almost no model soundings really support much snow. But based on the track of the 5h/7h lows, areas north of ATL should be jackpot. You pretty much just have to say that the models are wrong on the temps profiles across N GA and go with synoptics to forecast 2-4" type of accumulations here. It will be a total bummer if this Hi Res nam reflectivity image verifies and those nice yellow returns are rain tomorrow across N GA. I have been heavily basing my forecast off synoptics many, many years. Yes, snow will occur in Atlanta but the lion's share will be just north of there. The track is pretty good for Atlanta, northward, and surprising things always accompany the northwest shield of upper lows. Very much agree on NAM being a leader on this, which is very weird (except that the previous 2 upper lows this fall it did well on, GFS and ECMWF, not good). It surely has the hot streak, and aloft 5H systems look similar with 2 contour cutoff cruising by Atlanta/Athens. No doubt, snow and sleet will turn over there tomorrow afternoon. Timing isnt' great, but I think it will be very , very significant. Get into northeast GA and Upstate, a much bigger deal. I won't be suprised to see the core wrap completely around , clipping Atlanta very well by afternoon. No model really shows this, but using synoptics and climo, I bet it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think this will handle the storm nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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