DCMetroWinston Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 WxSouth Looking over the High Resolution NAM right now.....I've never seen such dynamic cooling as this. For areas in northern and maybe central Georgia, and points north, the rain will turn to snow like a light switch tomorrow afternoon and evening. And then the actual RATE OF PRECIP is incredible. The Higher Resolution version (which by the way is probably the best model out there for situations like this) really drops the snow all along northeast Alabama, northern Georgia, eastern TN Upstate SC, and quickly develops in more of Virginia and the Carolinas by dark. For some of us, this could end up being the heaviest we've ever seen snow fall, that's if the NAM HI RES is correct. It's being rock solid steady, so I think it has merit. But we'll see what GFS looks like soon. The only good news is that this system will be on the move quickly...much faster moving than most Winter storms. The bad news is, that when 2" per hour rates occur, the trees simply can't handle that much beyond 3 or 4 hours. Hopefully we end this event quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 BL issues remain for GFS -- not as aggressive with dynamic cooling as NAM. Makes me think it's onto something although with respect to Nam's superior sniffing out of forecasting temperatures so to speak you cannot discard it. With my temp having risen up this way from 46 earlier this evening to 49 now makes me wonder how long it's gonna actually take to have 850's crash as the models are progging. I guess being from Connecticut and having moved a year and a half ago now I can see that when there is a rapidly strengthening low that 850's do crash like crazy. Good luck to everyone on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 WxSouth Looking over the High Resolution NAM right now.....I've never seen such dynamic cooling as this. For areas in northern and maybe central Georgia, and points north, the rain will turn to snow like a light switch tomorrow afternoon and evening. And then the actual RATE OF PRECIP is incredible. The Higher Resolution version (which by the way is probably the best model out there for situations like this) really drops the snow all along northeast Alabama, northern Georgia, eastern TN Upstate SC, and quickly develops in more of Virginia and the Carolinas by dark. For some of us, this could end up being the heaviest we've ever seen snow fall, that's if the NAM HI RES is correct. It's being rock solid steady, so I think it has merit. But we'll see what GFS looks like soon. The only good news is that this system will be on the move quickly...much faster moving than most Winter storms. The bad news is, that when 2" per hour rates occur, the trees simply can't handle that much beyond 3 or 4 hours. Hopefully we end this event quickly. Sounds like Foothills is all in with the NAM. Going really bullish with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Tasty map for more of SC via GFS at 36 : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Was the GFS still showing a deformation band through NC setting up? When this happens, wherever that might be, what are we looking at as far as the width of the band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 From a modeling perspective, the valley of east TN has consistently been looking pretty good. Five to seven inches from central valley north, tapering down as you go south. Considering we are looking at 4:1 or 5:1 ratios as opposed to the 10:1 shown on these maps, I think a safe bet for the Knoxville area might be 2 to 4 inches, which is what the TV mets have been saying since late afternoon. I'd imagine a little more for TRI. All in all, this would be freaking phenominal, as this area tends to get ripped off on a regular basis. Personally, I just want to see heavy arse snow falling for a period. Anything that sticks is a bonus. Thunder snow is triple bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Pretty strong words. This is getting really good. Brick, I know you must be thrilled!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here's the 00z hi-res NAM snow map. Mmmmmm.... Edit: Forgot scale. Lightest blue 1-2 Next blue 2-4 Darkest blue 4-6 Dark purple 6-8 Lighter purple 8-10 Lightest purple 10-12 So the eastside of Greenville County, SC gets over six inches of snow while the west side gets nothing. Ummm..yeah. Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm sorry if i missed this, but what are the winds supposed to be like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Makes me think it's onto something although with respect to Nam's superior sniffing out of forecasting temperatures so to speak you cannot discard it. With my temp having risen up this way from 46 earlier this evening to 49 now makes me wonder how long it's gonna actually take to have 850's crash as the models are progging. I guess being from Connecticut and having moved a year and a half ago now I can see that when there is a rapidly strengthening low that 850's do crash like crazy. Good luck to everyone on this. The NAM is a high resolution mesoscale model, in this range it's got the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 947 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY... .A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. ALZ009-171300- /O.UPG.KHUN.WS.A.0002.130117T0900Z-130118T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KHUN.WS.W.0001.130117T1500Z-130118T0000Z/ JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SCOTTSBORO 947 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 9 AM CST FOR JACKSON COUNTY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM CST. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES. * OTHER HAZARDS...COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE REGION AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES MAY RESULT IN RESIDUAL WATER FREEZING ON EXPOSED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...BEFORE THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEGINS. * IMPACTS...WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...SOME ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED ROADS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS looks almost identical to NAM tonight at 5H. Have folks forgot what strong upper lows do on this track. This is one exquisite track for changing rain to snow suddenly along and northwest of it's track. Hi Res NAM leads the way , and should be the model of choice, as it was in the previous 2 upper lows last Fall, when GFS and ECMWF joined late. The details here mean a lot, and upper lows are best portrayed by high res models. The column crashes with the upper low as it moves east then northeast, along I-85 from Atlanta to Charlotte to Raleight ( notice GFS now is closed to Elizabeth City now). NAM has led the way the entire time on this event, as much as I hate to admit. GFS looks much like NAM maybe shorter lived by a fraction, but remember deformation bands die a slow death in the lee of the Apps. I've seen it a few times and upper lows are kind of my specialty, and damming. This will be a very remarkable event, once the upper low wraps the precip around its core , beginning in Alabama, then stretching in a very nice deformation axis from Richmond to just north of Atlanta tomorrow night. The Carolina peeps should be in hog heaven with this track, despite marginal 850's. Dynamic forcing through the roof for 4 to 6 hours under that band, and some areas more, namely southern VA and western NC mtns, eastern TN where cold is first to arrive. But the absolute best lift, tilt and forcing from being on the northwest side is just north of Atlanta, through the western Carolinas into southern VA and that all slides east overnight....only slowly weakening aloft, which is usually overdone some. Thunder and lightning on the nw shield as well, which will make some insane rates for some areas. Hard to say exactly where that ends up, but it will certainly happen. Unfortunately, the downslope may cause a warm bubble too, but that's hard to predict in the lee as well. Overall, this will go down as one of the best Upper Low type storms from northern Alabama through much of the Carolinas and southern Virginia I think, and could approach the March 2009 system in some areas, but that's hard to say exactly where. This one looks faster than that, and that could save many folks , but still when you get 2" per hour or even 3" per hour under the convection, you'll see firsthand what can happen with upper lows. After the fourth hour, the trees start really creaking and making scary noises. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So the eastside of Greenville County, SC gets over six inches of snow while the west side gets nothing. Ummm..yeah. Sure. That purple pixel might be right over Paris Mountain, which is 2000ft apparently. I think an inch or two for Greenville proper might be possible as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-storm-on-tap-for-carolinas forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The NAM is a high resolution mesoscale model, in this range it's got the ball. Yea I definitely concur with you there I guess just seeing the temp at 49 at 11pm makes you a little jittery haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 my forecast map...*more than likely my only one* https://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=482627135112033&set=a.417657314942349.88394.416728428368571&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Local TV mets still being conservative with 1 to 3 inches around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-storm-on-tap-for-carolinas forecast Seems like a huge difference in accumulation between Durham - Raleigh area and northern NC/southern VA border. Is this accurate?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I remember when I was in Highpoint in Feb 2004 for the winter storm that dropped tons of snow over night like 10-17 inches in some places not saying this much is going to fall but, If that deform bands sets up right..... people will be shocked at the intensity of the snowfall.... driving would be impossible. Dont be fooled once the heavy precip starts this will allow cold air aloft to crash towards the surface the change over will happen very quickly. Am northeast of Greensboro and am excited by what the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Local TV mets still being conservative with 1 to 3 inches around here. A safe bet to be sure. Even taking the models per batum, but using 5:1 ratios, that's all we get around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS looks almost identical to NAM tonight at 5H. Have folks forgot what strong upper lows do on this track. This is one exquisite track for changing rain to snow suddenly along and northwest of it's track. Hi Res NAM leads the way , and should be the model of choice, as it was in the previous 2 upper lows last Fall, when GFS and ECMWF joined late. The details here mean a lot, and upper lows are best portrayed by high res models. The column crashes with the upper low as it moves east then northeast, along I-85 from Atlanta to Charlotte to Raleight ( notice GFS now is closed to Elizabeth City now). NAM has led the way the entire time on this event, as much as I hate to admit. GFS looks much like NAM maybe shorter lived by a fraction, but remember deformation bands die a slow death in the lee of the Apps. I've seen it a few times and upper lows are kind of my specialty, and damming. This will be a very remarkable event, once the upper low wraps the precip around its core , beginning in Alabama, then stretching in a very nice deformation axis from Richmond to just north of Atlanta tomorrow night. The Carolina peeps should be in hog heaven with this track, despite marginal 850's. Dynamic forcing through the roof for 4 to 6 hours under that band, and some areas more, namely southern VA and western NC mtns, eastern TN where cold is first to arrive. But the absolute best lift, tilt and forcing from being on the northwest side is just north of Atlanta, through the western Carolinas into southern VA and that all slides east overnight....only slowly weakening aloft, which is usually overdone some. Thunder and lightning on the nw shield as well, which will make some insane rates for some areas. Hard to say exactly where that ends up, but it will certainly happen. Unfortunately, the downslope may cause a warm bubble too, but that's hard to predict in the lee as well. Overall, this will go down as one of the best Upper Low type storms from northern Alabama through much of the Carolinas and southern Virginia I think, and could approach the March 2009 system in some areas, but that's hard to say exactly where. This one looks faster than that, and that could save many folks , but still when you get 2" per hour or even 3" per hour under the convection, you'll see firsthand what can happen with upper lows. After the fourth hour, the trees start really creaking and making scary noises. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Great post Robert! I have to say this really got my inner weenie tingling. Hope you're spot on like you usually are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 From a modeling perspective, the valley of east TN has consistently been looking pretty good. Five to seven inches from central valley north, tapering down as you go south. Considering we are looking at 4:1 or 5:1 ratios as opposed to the 10:1 shown on these maps, I think a safe bet for the Knoxville area might be 2 to 4 inches, which is what the TV mets have been saying since late afternoon. I'd imagine a little more for TRI. All in all, this would be freaking phenominal, as this area tends to get ripped off on a regular basis. Personally, I just want to see heavy arse snow falling for a period. Anything that sticks is a bonus. Thunder snow is triple bonus! A met can correct me, but I don't think all of our snow falls at 4 or 5 to one. Most levels are pretty chilly for the last few hours of snow................and would probably be closer to 7 or even 8 to 1............ Will be interesting to see it play out Stovepipe. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 my forecast map...*more than likely my only one* https://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=482627135112033&set=a.417657314942349.88394.416728428368571&type=1&theater If I were to make a map I think mine would look very similar to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Seems like a huge difference in accumulation between Durham - Raleigh area and northern NC/southern VA border. Is this accurate?! I think Brandon has a pretty good history of knowing his stuff. Is it accurate? We can't fully answer that question until after the event is over. But you can rest assured that he has his reasons for why his lines of demarcation are placed. This wasn't just thrown together willy-nilly. This is a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Seems like a huge difference in accumulation between Durham - Raleigh area and northern NC/southern VA border. Is this accurate?! i'm not sure i'd call 2-4 vs 3-6 a huge difference bro. at least that's what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS looks almost identical to NAM tonight at 5H. Have folks forgot what strong upper lows do on this track. This is one exquisite track for changing rain to snow suddenly along and northwest of it's track. Hi Res NAM leads the way , and should be the model of choice, as it was in the previous 2 upper lows last Fall, when GFS and ECMWF joined late. The details here mean a lot, and upper lows are best portrayed by high res models. The column crashes with the upper low as it moves east then northeast, along I-85 from Atlanta to Charlotte to Raleight ( notice GFS now is closed to Elizabeth City now). NAM has led the way the entire time on this event, as much as I hate to admit. GFS looks much like NAM maybe shorter lived by a fraction, but remember deformation bands die a slow death in the lee of the Apps. I've seen it a few times and upper lows are kind of my specialty, and damming. This will be a very remarkable event, once the upper low wraps the precip around its core , beginning in Alabama, then stretching in a very nice deformation axis from Richmond to just north of Atlanta tomorrow night. The Carolina peeps should be in hog heaven with this track, despite marginal 850's. Dynamic forcing through the roof for 4 to 6 hours under that band, and some areas more, namely southern VA and western NC mtns, eastern TN where cold is first to arrive. But the absolute best lift, tilt and forcing from being on the northwest side is just north of Atlanta, through the western Carolinas into southern VA and that all slides east overnight....only slowly weakening aloft, which is usually overdone some. Thunder and lightning on the nw shield as well, which will make some insane rates for some areas. Hard to say exactly where that ends up, but it will certainly happen. Unfortunately, the downslope may cause a warm bubble too, but that's hard to predict in the lee as well. Overall, this will go down as one of the best Upper Low type storms from northern Alabama through much of the Carolinas and southern Virginia I think, and could approach the March 2009 system in some areas, but that's hard to say exactly where. This one looks faster than that, and that could save many folks , but still when you get 2" per hour or even 3" per hour under the convection, you'll see firsthand what can happen with upper lows. After the fourth hour, the trees start really creaking and making scary noises. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. That's an awesome post if you live in Emerson, Marietta, Canton and Adairsville if I am reading this right. That lift index really means business as depicted by that map WxinCanton posted. Thanks Robert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yea I definitely concur with you there I guess just seeing the temp at 49 at 11pm makes you a little jittery haha Sure that understandably does but in the Christmas/Boxing day storm I was in SOP in the upper 50's and ended up with 6.5" from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS looks almost identical to NAM tonight at 5H. Have folks forgot what strong upper lows do on this track. This is one exquisite track for changing rain to snow suddenly along and northwest of it's track. Hi Res NAM leads the way , and should be the model of choice, as it was in the previous 2 upper lows last Fall, when GFS and ECMWF joined late. The details here mean a lot, and upper lows are best portrayed by high res models. The column crashes with the upper low as it moves east then northeast, along I-85 from Atlanta to Charlotte to Raleight ( notice GFS now is closed to Elizabeth City now). NAM has led the way the entire time on this event, as much as I hate to admit. GFS looks much like NAM maybe shorter lived by a fraction, but remember deformation bands die a slow death in the lee of the Apps. I've seen it a few times and upper lows are kind of my specialty, and damming. This will be a very remarkable event, once the upper low wraps the precip around its core , beginning in Alabama, then stretching in a very nice deformation axis from Richmond to just north of Atlanta tomorrow night. The Carolina peeps should be in hog heaven with this track, despite marginal 850's. Dynamic forcing through the roof for 4 to 6 hours under that band, and some areas more, namely southern VA and western NC mtns, eastern TN where cold is first to arrive. But the absolute best lift, tilt and forcing from being on the northwest side is just north of Atlanta, through the western Carolinas into southern VA and that all slides east overnight....only slowly weakening aloft, which is usually overdone some. Thunder and lightning on the nw shield as well, which will make some insane rates for some areas. Hard to say exactly where that ends up, but it will certainly happen. Unfortunately, the downslope may cause a warm bubble too, but that's hard to predict in the lee as well. Overall, this will go down as one of the best Upper Low type storms from northern Alabama through much of the Carolinas and southern Virginia I think, and could approach the March 2009 system in some areas, but that's hard to say exactly where. This one looks faster than that, and that could save many folks , but still when you get 2" per hour or even 3" per hour under the convection, you'll see firsthand what can happen with upper lows. After the fourth hour, the trees start really creaking and making scary noises. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Dang Robert, you got me snow horney! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 BMX pulls the trigger. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL1004 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013...SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMATHURSDAY....RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THURSDAYMORNING ACROSS THE WEST...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE RESTOF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.ONE TO THREE INCHES IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TOCLANTON TO LAFAYETTE...BUT THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF AREAS THATRECEIVE UP TO 4 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...ESPECIALLY EASTOF INTERSTATE 65. 1004 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM CSTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7PM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS AROUND 5 AM IN THE WEST AND LASTS UNTIL 7PM IN THE EAST.* LOCATION...OF THE HEAVIER TOTALS WILL BE NORTH OF A DEMOPOLIS... TO CLANTON...TO ROANOKE LINE.* ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO THREE INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 INCHES... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I will honestly not care what the total is if I see a 3" per hour rate and/or some thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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