WilkesboroDude Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It will be scary to see heavy rates not change over quick in western NC...more landslides may be possible before going over to snow esp. in the foothills. I expect to see some flash flood warnings tomorrow. Stay safe. I don't live too far up and its still raining with over 4.5 inches in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 OK...but you didn't say that in your post...you quoted strong dynamical cooling as a reason why these totals seemed low to you. Exactly. The dynamical cooling will lead to more snow, less rain. Temperatures dropping faster than indicated by the NAM. Again, not disputing your theory on lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I understand your point and ratios certainly will be close to what you surmise. My point is the snow will fall for a longer period of time due to the switchover being quicker (therefore more snow less rain). My opinion only. I'm leaning that way too Greg. Check out the UVV's on the NAM. That could very well be snow, but its not per soundings and the model. If thats wrong and that deform band is snow we would have a good 2 to 3 hours of heavy or moderate snow. But I could very well be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Exactly. The dynamical cooling will lead to more snow, less rain. Temperatures dropping faster than indicated by the NAM. Again, not disputing your theory on lower ratios.this is what i have been thinking for the n ga mtns. They are in a great spot with incredible lift near rhe 700mb low. I can see the entire column crash very quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Got it. Thanks for the clarification...a little slow this evening I guess Good luck in GA. Exactly. The dynamical cooling will lead to more snow, less rain. Temperatures dropping faster than indicated by the NAM. Again, not disputing your theory on lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It will be scary to see heavy rates not change over quick in western NC...more landslides may be possible before going over to snow esp. in the foothills. I expect to see some flash flood warnings tomorrow. Stay safe. I don't live too far up and its still raining with over 4.5 inches in the bucket. I am under a Flood Watch and a Winter Storm Warning...that does not happen often. I have received over 3 inches of rain since Monday and the headwaters of the Catawba is elevated. 2-3 more inches could be a real problem here in McDowell County. Flooding is defintely a legit concern regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 0z GFS rolling -- through 21 hours VERY similar to 18z GFS and 0z NAM -- honestly trying to find differences with 850 heights and temps and can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Got it. Thanks for the clarification...a little slow this evening I guess Good luck in GA. Thanks and you as well. I wasn't real clear but I am old and it's past my bed time. I have good excuses too! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 00z GFS comes out a tad warmer with less precip overall....but still pretty close to the 18z GFS. We're almost at nowcast time and using the short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Just went under Adv here in NW MS and we are starting to have showers pop along the river so maybe the first stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS looks further north than the NAM at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 For whatever reason, 850 low not quite as amped up near the end of the storm -- that's cutting back on some of the massive precip (but not adversely affecting temps, which is good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 From RAH: AS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH... THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING IN MUCH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS MODELS... AND WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. IF ANYTHING... THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG LIFT/DYNAMICAL COOLING EXPECTED AS THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FROM NEAR AUGUSTA TO NEAR CAE TO NEAR FAY OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS FOR AT LEAST THE CURRENT WATCH AREA OF CENTRAL NC. IF THE REST OF THE MODELS ARRIVE WITH SIMILAR TRACKS/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM... THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECASTS LIKELY BE BEEFED UP ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HIGH ROCK TO ASHEBORO TO RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT...NORTHWARD... WITH THE MAIN IMPACT AFTER DARK THURSDAY. ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD OF THIS STORM WILL BE THAT THE COLDTEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW ITSELF. GIVENCURRENT DATA... A FULL DAY OF MILD RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TOSNOW... AND IN SOME CASES HEAVY SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET.POTENTIAL SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR IS THERE IN THEWATCH AREA. THEREFORE... 45 DEGREES WITH RAIN SHOULD VERY WELLBECOME 35... THEN 32-33 WITH HEAVY SNOW IN A FEW HOURS TIME AFTERSUNSET. IN OTHER WORDS... DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN. SPRING CANBECOME WINTER VERY QUICKLY WITH SUCH DYNAMIC AND MOIST SYSTEMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm leaning that way too Greg. Check out the UVV's on the NAM. That could very well be snow, but its not per soundings and the model. If thats wrong and that deform band is snow we would have a good 2 to 3 hours of heavy or moderate snow. But I could very well be wrong Nice! That looks like possible thundersnow with indices like that. It looks great anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 00z looks to lay down widespread 2-4 inches in NC winners on this run are along the VA/NC border central to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 00Z GFS pretty friendly to a good portion of the SE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 As much as we're loving the NAM, it still concerns me for IMBY the GFS still not cooling down the lowest levels. Here's the profile for KMRN at 24 hours. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KMRN&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h24&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480950mb: 2.3 SFC: 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 BL issues remain for GFS -- not as aggressive with dynamic cooling as NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 From RAH: AS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH... THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING IN MUCH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS MODELS... AND WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. IF ANYTHING... THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG LIFT/DYNAMICAL COOLING EXPECTED AS THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FROM NEAR AUGUSTA TO NEAR CAE TO NEAR FAY OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS FOR AT LEAST THE CURRENT WATCH AREA OF CENTRAL NC. IF THE REST OF THE MODELS ARRIVE WITH SIMILAR TRACKS/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM... THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECASTS LIKELY BE BEEFED UP ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HIGH ROCK TO ASHEBORO TO RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT...NORTHWARD... WITH THE MAIN IMPACT AFTER DARK THURSDAY. I know he is talking about the RAH forecast area but this exactly what I am talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 looks like its sped up the timing the last couple of runs. i was hoping it would hold the change over off till after i got off work... to me gfs moves it through quicker this run compared to NAM and previous runs of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 looks like its sped up the timing the last couple of runs. i was hoping it would hold the change over off till after i got off work... to me gfs moves it through quicker this run compared to NAM and previous runs of GFS. Most definitely. That accumulation map is for 30 hours out which would be about 1 AM Friday. The precip definitely looks to be hitting earlier in the evening for WNC anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 00Z GFS pretty friendly to a good portion of the SE: Completely skips over Atlanta and its northern burbs lol. Screwed if that maps were to come to fruition. Guess I'll just have to hope the NAM wins this battle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If the models trend any farther south, Rock Hill and even the northern suburbs of Columbia could be in for something. Will be very interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 From RAH: AS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH... THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING IN MUCH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS MODELS... AND WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. IF ANYTHING... THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG LIFT/DYNAMICAL COOLING EXPECTED AS THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FROM NEAR AUGUSTA TO NEAR CAE TO NEAR FAY OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS FOR AT LEAST THE CURRENT WATCH AREA OF CENTRAL NC. IF THE REST OF THE MODELS ARRIVE WITH SIMILAR TRACKS/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM... THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECASTS LIKELY BE BEEFED UP ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HIGH ROCK TO ASHEBORO TO RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT...NORTHWARD... WITH THE MAIN IMPACT AFTER DARK THURSDAY. ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD OF THIS STORM WILL BE THAT THE COLDTEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW ITSELF. GIVENCURRENT DATA... A FULL DAY OF MILD RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TOSNOW... AND IN SOME CASES HEAVY SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET.POTENTIAL SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR IS THERE IN THEWATCH AREA. THEREFORE... 45 DEGREES WITH RAIN SHOULD VERY WELLBECOME 35... THEN 32-33 WITH HEAVY SNOW IN A FEW HOURS TIME AFTERSUNSET. IN OTHER WORDS... DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN. SPRING CANBECOME WINTER VERY QUICKLY WITH SUCH DYNAMIC AND MOIST SYSTEMS. Pretty strong words. This is getting really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Completely skips over Atlanta and its northern burbs lol. Screwed if that maps were to come to fruition. Guess I'll just have to hope the NAM wins this battle! Don't buy that either. I have new SREF 500 mb and 850 mb loops available, still working on the rest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here's the 00z hi-res NAM snow map. Mmmmmm.... Edit: Forgot scale.Lightest blue 1-2 Next blue 2-4 Darkest blue 4-6 Dark purple 6-8 Lighter purple 8-10 Lightest purple 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 00Z GFS pretty friendly to a good portion of the SE: Now 6" for the GFS for Knoxville. By the way, if you want to head to the Smokys from NC, be aware that a section of 441 is completely washed out as of today. 7 or 8 inches of rain will do things like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 @spann: HUN issues Winter Storm Warning valid at Jan 17, 9:00 AM CST for Jackson, De Kalb, Marshall [AL] #alwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Guilford county schools have already cancelled all after school activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Now 6" for the GFS for Knoxville. By the way, if you want to head to the Smokys from NC, be aware that a section of 441 is completely washed out as of today. 7 or 8 inches of rain will do things like that. Oh really? What section is completely washed out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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