WidreMann Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Please post the link to the text soundings. Or give one for RDU and IGX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM turns over to snow CLT west at 25 hours just when the heaviest qpf is moving west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hi-Res NAM looks freaking beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html Please post the link to the text soundings. Or give one for RDU and IGX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 SV snow maps give widespread 3-6 across almost all of NC. The Hi Res should be very fun tonight. It is going to be a long fun night man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I assume you cannot post.. Hi-Res NAM looks freaking beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hi Res NAM says Shelby is the spot to be. Really just dumps on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 850 low has formed with -4 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hard to tell due to the 20 shades of blue the SV snow depth map uses for the hi-res but looks like wide spread 3-6...of course it keeps that little snow hole right over CLT. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Now you're talking nasty ..... Hi Res NAM says Shelby is the spot to be. Really just dumps on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I assume you cannot post.. Here is the run before it nobody said anything of how amazing it looked down east. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RDU...hr 27 Date: 27 hour Eta valid 3Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: KRDULatitude: 35.87Longitude: -78.78-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1003 104 2.6 1.0 89 1.6 1.9 15 15 275.5 276.2 274.9 286.7 4.10 1 1000 125 2.0 18 16 275.2 2 950 537 -0.8 -0.8 100 0.0 -0.8 26 40 276.4 277.0 274.9 286.7 3.78 3 900 968 -1.5 -1.7 99 0.1 -1.6 32 54 279.9 280.6 276.9 290.4 3.76 4 850 1423 -2.4 -2.5 99 0.1 -2.4 36 48 283.7 284.3 278.7 294.3 3.74 5 800 1905 -0.1 -0.1 100 0.0 -0.2 66 27 291.0 291.8 283.2 304.7 4.73 6 750 2425 1.9 1.9 100 0.0 1.9 145 29 298.6 299.7 287.4 315.9 5.85 7 700 2979 -0.8 -0.8 100 0.0 -0.9 167 40 301.6 302.5 287.8 317.1 5.14 8 650 3568 -3.8 -3.9 99 0.1 -3.9 178 44 304.6 305.4 288.1 318.1 4.40 9 600 4197 -6.5 -7.0 96 0.5 -6.7 182 48 308.6 309.3 288.9 320.4 3.77 10 550 4874 -9.6 -10.4 94 0.8 -9.9 183 66 312.7 313.3 289.6 322.9 3.16 11 500 5603 -14.9 -16.1 90 1.2 -15.3 186 77 314.8 315.3 289.3 322.0 2.17 12 450 6389 -22.1 -24.6 80 2.5 -22.7 188 83 315.4 315.6 288.5 319.3 1.16 13 400 7244 -27.1 -39.5 30 12.4 -28.6 195 99 319.7 319.8 289.0 320.9 0.31 14 350 8198 -31.4 -57.6 6 26.2 -33.0 202 110 326.4 326.4 290.7 326.6 0.05 15 300 9270 -39.8 -66.6 4 26.8 -40.7 206 112 329.3 329.3 291.5 329.4 0.02 16 250 10489 -49.6 212 112 332.4 17 200 11923 -56.2 216 109 343.8 18 150 13745 -58.0 224 99 370.1 19 100 16257 -64.7 233 80 402.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Soundings look pretty lame for RDU. Most of the precip is over by the time temperatures get anywhere near freezing in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Even if it is snowing, it won't stick until the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm liking the trends for the triangle today. Based on soundings from 17/00z nam, the triangle would be snow from about 11pm through 4am, give or take an hour. I like Allan's idea of 1-3 for the triangle. I think the lower end is more likely, but I could see more if the switchover occurs earlier and we get under some heavier echoes in the deform area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RDU...hr 30 Date: 30 hour Eta valid 6Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: KRDULatitude: 35.87Longitude: -78.78-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1006 105 0.3 -0.1 98 0.3 0.1 4 15 273.0 273.6 273.0 283.2 3.78 1 1000 150 0.0 -0.1 99 0.1 -0.0 6 18 273.2 273.8 273.1 283.4 3.80 2 950 560 -1.3 -1.5 99 0.2 -1.4 19 44 275.8 276.4 274.4 285.7 3.59 3 900 989 -2.8 -3.1 97 0.4 -2.9 18 49 278.7 279.2 275.6 288.1 3.38 4 850 1442 -3.0 -3.4 97 0.4 -3.1 11 46 283.0 283.6 278.1 292.9 3.51 5 800 1923 -2.9 -3.3 98 0.3 -3.1 8 38 288.0 288.7 280.8 298.8 3.75 6 750 2433 -4.1 -4.4 98 0.3 -4.3 28 25 292.1 292.7 282.5 302.8 3.66 7 700 2976 -4.8 -5.1 98 0.3 -4.9 222 1 297.2 297.9 284.7 308.4 3.74 8 650 3557 -7.6 -8.2 96 0.6 -7.8 238 16 300.3 300.9 285.3 310.0 3.17 9 600 4175 -11.8 -12.9 91 1.1 -12.2 230 15 302.5 302.9 285.2 309.8 2.35 10 550 4836 -16.0 -18.7 80 2.7 -16.7 206 16 305.1 305.4 285.4 310.2 1.59 11 500 5547 -20.7 -25.0 68 4.3 -21.6 185 21 307.8 308.0 285.7 311.2 1.01 12 450 6319 -24.9 -32.3 51 7.3 -26.1 191 29 311.9 312.0 286.7 313.9 0.57 13 400 7169 -27.4 -46.7 14 19.3 -29.3 207 49 319.3 319.3 288.7 319.9 0.14 14 350 8123 -31.4 -59.8 4 28.5 -33.1 209 73 326.5 326.5 290.7 326.6 0.03 15 300 9200 -38.1 -67.1 3 29.0 -39.2 208 87 331.6 331.7 292.2 331.7 0.02 16 250 10432 -46.5 -74.5 3 27.9 -47.1 213 89 336.9 336.9 293.6 336.9 0.01 17 200 11884 -53.9 -73.5 7 19.6 -54.2 223 91 347.4 347.4 296.1 347.4 0.01 18 150 13707 -56.9 -73.2 11 16.3 -57.2 237 88 372.0 372.0 300.9 372.0 0.01 19 100 16225 -63.9 -83.9 5 20.1 -64.1 237 83 404.3 404.3 305.8 404.3 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Upstate SC gets shafted again. Oh well. Bring on the rain. We need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Now you're talking nasty ..... Gives Shelby points east around Gaston what looks like 4 or 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 36hr accum, take it for what it's worth, I believe this is based on a stock 10:1 with sn-flag, actuals would be closer to 5:1 outside of elevation, and areas farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 For my NE Tennessee friends, this is clipped from MRX's 9:20pm AFD: HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES REMAINS A GOOD BET FOR THU. UPPER LOW TRACKSACROSS SOUTHERN APPS BY THU AFTERNOON. GOOD DEFORMATION ZONE SETSUP ACROSS MRX CWA. TROWAL FEATURE ALSO DEPICTED NICELY BY MODELS.SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SC. 1000-H85 FLOW SHIFTS RAPIDLY TOTHE NE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. 17/18Z SOUNDINGS REMAINNEARLY ISOTHERMAL AT 0C BUT SHOULD SNAP QUICKLY TO BELOW ZERO. WETSNOWFALL RATES NEAR TWO INCHES PER HOUR VERY POSSIBLE. SURFACETEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING DURING MOST OFEVENT BUT RATES SHOULD OVERCOME MELTING ALLOWING FORACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND TREE BRANCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Soundings look pretty lame for RDU. Most of the precip is over by the time temperatures get anywhere near freezing in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Even if it is snowing, it won't stick until the very end. That's the reason for the 1" to 3" forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here is the run before it nobody said anything of how amazing it looked down east. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif 10:1 ratios...come on man! Divide in half...also, what do you consider "down east"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 high res nam looks good tomorrow around midnight, even parts of the sc upstate getting some love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 21Z SREF has shifted south. I have a feeling a lot of weenies in DC will be bridge jumping- the NWS up there may have some "splainin" to do...... I think the NC/SC border is the place to be with this one, but down to RDU should do well. Even here in the GA screw zone if this thing takes the track right overhead or slightly south we may luck out with a burst of S+ for an hour or so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hard to tell due to the 20 shades of blue the SV snow depth map uses for the hi-res but looks like wide spread 3-6...of course it keeps that little snow hole right over CLT. WTF. i wouldnt worry about it...CLT is in a quite favorable spot being just on the NW side as it passes underneath, regardless what the snow maps show. but i am starting to understand this snow triangle thing though lol...unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 21Z SREF has shifted south. I have a feeling a lot of weenies in DC will be bridge jumping- the NWS up there may have some "splainin" to do...... I think the NC/SC border is the place to be with this one, but down to RDU should do well. Even here in the GA screw zone if this thing takes the track right overhead or slightly south we may luck out with a burst of S+ for an hour or so..... RIC could be in some trouble too, just my past history of seeing they can sometimes take longer to change over, add in the fact the system is opening and ejecting by the time it gets there more so....I think they'll do alright but it wouldn't surprise me if they only saw 2-3 inches while RDU saw 6 or more. ATL is tough, I could see them getting 3 or 4 inches if the H5 low ends up a bit south. The snow maps probably are not capturing anything down that way because they're missing the dynamic cooling factor more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/405/nam30.png/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This storm becomes massive lol. Wow. Looks like widespread moderate snow in NC based on that NAM P-types man with a band of heavy snow in the mountains as indicative of the purple color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 There is your deform band down east (Greensboro south-east....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Back to where it all started with Unisys...one thing of note is that there has been a lot of mention about the upper low opening up as it heads east, but if you look at the vorticity numbers, they are increasing as the upper low tracks east, with the max occurring in the Carolinas...always good to see that value increasing. 2nd image is the 700mb vertical motion, with bullseye at hr24 near Burger's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 from gsp twitter http://ow.ly/i/1nKhf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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