January 17th-18th Winter Storm Discussion

[beanskip]

At 27h -- not quite as bonkers with precip, but colder, 10m temps dramatically colder -- barely reached into NC at all on 18z -- now almost down to NC/SC line. If this is right .....

[burgertime]

I would have to think CLT even down to Ft. Mill would be 2-4 per this run.  CLT might even be a little over 4. 

[packfan98]

Looks like a little less precip than earlier runs, but ill take the colder look!

[SnowGoose69]

This looks kind of good for the Atlanta area.

 

The deformation band appears that it may still be north but its darn close...this could be an event where there would be a few inches just north of 285 and the south side of the city could be dry slotted.  The 700hPa low position at 00Z is a nose too far NW of where you'd want to see it for ATL.

[HKY_WX]

This low is staying cutoff longer than most vorts do. Most of them start to open up over the ga/sc area. This could really enhance the snowfall over the comma head in NC. Especially in any area prone to upslope from the ESE. I really thought this escarpment warm pocket was bogus and I think that will be proven true.

[strongwxnc]

Wow -- 850 0C line makes big shift east 0z compared to 18z -- was near Brevard at 30 hours on 18z -- now near Gastonia at 24 on 18z.

http://imgur.com/2f8OJ'>

[beanskip]

Oh my ....

 

Date: 27 hour Eta valid 3Z FRI 18 JAN 13
Station: KEHO
Latitude:   35.26
Longitude: -81.60
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   153                                                                
SFC  987   257   0.3   0.1  98  0.2   0.2   6  15 274.5 275.1 274.0 285.1  3.89
  2  950   565  -0.1  -0.2 100  0.0  -0.2  17  37 277.0 277.7 275.6 287.9  3.97
  3  900   997  -1.6  -1.8  99  0.2  -1.6  25  54 279.9 280.5 276.8 290.3  3.73
  4  850  1451  -2.9  -3.2  98  0.3  -3.0  21  55 283.2 283.8 278.2 293.2  3.55
  5  800  1931  -3.1  -3.5  98  0.3  -3.3  17  49 287.8 288.4 280.7 298.4  3.70
  6  750  2441  -4.6  -5.0  97  0.4  -4.8  18  39 291.5 292.2 282.1 301.8  3.50
  7  700  2983  -6.1  -6.5  97  0.4  -6.3  30  24 295.7 296.3 283.7 305.7  3.35
  8  650  3561  -8.1  -8.8  95  0.7  -8.4 329  12 299.8 300.3 284.9 309.0  3.02
  9  600  4178 -12.3 -13.3  92  1.0 -12.6 270   5 301.9 302.3 284.9 309.0  2.28
10  550  4837 -17.0 -20.0  78  3.0 -17.8 129  13 303.9 304.1 284.7 308.4  1.42
11  500  5545 -21.2 -26.2  64  5.0 -22.2 105  20 307.2 307.3 285.4 310.2  0.90
12  450  6317 -25.1 -30.7  60  5.6 -26.1  84  17 311.6 311.8 286.7 313.9  0.66
13  400  7164 -29.8 -38.4  43  8.6 -30.8 116   8 316.3 316.4 287.9 317.5  0.35
14  350  8104 -34.8 -50.5  19 15.7 -35.8 201  20 321.8 321.8 289.4 322.2  0.11
15  300  9170 -39.4 -63.6   6 24.3 -40.3 211  40 329.9 329.9 291.7 330.0  0.02
16  250 10403 -44.6                      217  55 339.7                       
17  200 11874 -51.3                      222  58 351.5                       
18  150 13717 -56.5                      236  80 372.7                       
19  100 16234 -64.0                      237  80 404.1                       
TRP                                             0                             
WND                                             0                             

Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick:      5392.02 m
Freezing level:          961.21 mb =   472.12 m =  1548.92 ft
Wetbulb zero:            966.49 mb =   426.92 m =  1400.65 ft
Precipitable water:        0.63 inches
 

[WilkesboroDude]

northern precip shield doesn't appear to be as expansive back here in TN and SW VA.

 

True. Appears colder means less precip getting further north.

[LiQuiDBuD]

NOAA upped mby from 1-3" to 6-8". Woo hoo.

[strongwxnc]

Oh my ....

 

Date: 27 hour Eta valid 3Z FRI 18 JAN 13

Station: KEHO

Latitude:   35.26

Longitude: -81.60

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W

     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  0 1000   153                                                                

SFC  987   257   0.3   0.1  98  0.2   0.2   6  15 274.5 275.1 274.0 285.1  3.89

  2  950   565  -0.1  -0.2 100  0.0  -0.2  17  37 277.0 277.7 275.6 287.9  3.97

  3  900   997  -1.6  -1.8  99  0.2  -1.6  25  54 279.9 280.5 276.8 290.3  3.73

  4  850  1451  -2.9  -3.2  98  0.3  -3.0  21  55 283.2 283.8 278.2 293.2  3.55

  5  800  1931  -3.1  -3.5  98  0.3  -3.3  17  49 287.8 288.4 280.7 298.4  3.70

  6  750  2441  -4.6  -5.0  97  0.4  -4.8  18  39 291.5 292.2 282.1 301.8  3.50

  7  700  2983  -6.1  -6.5  97  0.4  -6.3  30  24 295.7 296.3 283.7 305.7  3.35

  8  650  3561  -8.1  -8.8  95  0.7  -8.4 329  12 299.8 300.3 284.9 309.0  3.02

  9  600  4178 -12.3 -13.3  92  1.0 -12.6 270   5 301.9 302.3 284.9 309.0  2.28

10  550  4837 -17.0 -20.0  78  3.0 -17.8 129  13 303.9 304.1 284.7 308.4  1.42

11  500  5545 -21.2 -26.2  64  5.0 -22.2 105  20 307.2 307.3 285.4 310.2  0.90

12  450  6317 -25.1 -30.7  60  5.6 -26.1  84  17 311.6 311.8 286.7 313.9  0.66

13  400  7164 -29.8 -38.4  43  8.6 -30.8 116   8 316.3 316.4 287.9 317.5  0.35

14  350  8104 -34.8 -50.5  19 15.7 -35.8 201  20 321.8 321.8 289.4 322.2  0.11

15  300  9170 -39.4 -63.6   6 24.3 -40.3 211  40 329.9 329.9 291.7 330.0  0.02

16  250 10403 -44.6                      217  55 339.7                       

17  200 11874 -51.3                      222  58 351.5                       

18  150 13717 -56.5                      236  80 372.7                       

19  100 16234 -64.0                      237  80 404.1                       

TRP                                             0                             

WND                                             0                             

Sounding variables and indices

1000-500 mb thick:      5392.02 m

Freezing level:          961.21 mb =   472.12 m =  1548.92 ft

Wetbulb zero:            966.49 mb =   426.92 m =  1400.65 ft

Precipitable water:        0.63 inches

 

Post the link for this skip. Thanks!

[RaleighWx]

[burgertime]

SV snow maps give widespread 3-6 across almost all of NC. The Hi Res should be very fun tonight. 

[WXinCanton]

Much closer for the northern burbs of ATL.  Haven't looked at the soundings yet, but the deform band goes right over MBY for a solid 2 or 3 hours.  

[LovingGulfLows]

The deformation band appears that it may still be north but its darn close...this could be an event where there would be a few inches just north of 285 and the south side of the city could be dry slotted.  The 700hPa low position at 00Z is a nose too far NW of where you'd want to see it for ATL.

 

Temps seem to be colder throughout though so this could be great for the upper half of the metro area. Any trends south or a larger deform. band or even just random bursts of snow can put some places in Atlanta with a decent snow event. This is getting interesting, though, I'm still not highly optimistic....great run otherwise, especially for some parts of NC.

[John1122]

MRX must have loved that run of the NAM. They went from saying non-advisory event outside the mountains today in their afternoon AFD for Winter Storm Watches that line up with the 00z snow accumulation map.

[BullCityWx]

This run pushes the snow line from about wadesboro to greenwood, sc

[beanskip]

Post the link for this skip. Thanks!

I'll do you one better .... you are fqd right? (or is that gastonia?)

 

Date: 27 hour Eta valid 3Z FRI 18 JAN 13

Station: KFQD

Latitude:   35.43

Longitude: -81.94

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W

     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  0 1000   162                                                                

SFC  978   338   0.4   0.1  98  0.3   0.3 355  12 275.3 276.0 274.6 286.1  3.95

  2  950   573   0.2   0.1 100  0.1   0.2   8  26 277.4 278.1 275.9 288.6  4.06

  3  900  1006  -1.6  -1.9  98  0.3  -1.7  15  45 279.8 280.4 276.7 290.1  3.69

  4  850  1459  -3.3  -3.7  97  0.4  -3.5  15  53 282.7 283.3 277.8 292.3  3.41

  5  800  1939  -3.3  -3.7  97  0.4  -3.5  12  45 287.6 288.2 280.5 298.1  3.63

  6  750  2449  -3.7  -4.1  97  0.4  -3.8   2  31 292.5 293.2 282.8 303.6  3.77

  7  700  2992  -5.9  -6.4  96  0.6  -6.1  17  24 296.0 296.6 283.8 306.1  3.38

  8  650  3571  -8.1  -8.9  94  0.8  -8.4 360  14 299.8 300.3 284.9 308.9  3.00

  9  600  4189 -11.0 -12.3  90  1.3 -11.5 318  12 303.4 303.8 285.7 311.1  2.47

10  550  4852 -15.6 -17.3  86  1.7 -16.1 332   4 305.6 305.9 285.8 311.3  1.78

11  500  5564 -20.4 -22.8  81  2.5 -20.9  64   7 308.2 308.4 286.1 312.2  1.22

12  450  6336 -25.4 -28.1  78  2.7 -25.9  39  12 311.3 311.5 286.8 314.2  0.84

13  400  7181 -30.9 -34.4  71  3.5 -31.3  58  15 314.9 314.9 287.6 316.7  0.52

14  350  8114 -37.7 -43.7  53  6.0 -38.2  92  11 317.9 317.9 288.3 318.7  0.23

15  300  9167 -41.5 -59.1  13 17.6 -42.2 205  21 326.9 326.9 290.9 327.1  0.04

16  250 10393 -45.3                      219  44 338.8                       

17  200 11863 -50.9                      228  53 352.1                       

18  150 13706 -56.4                      237  79 372.9                       

19  100 16224 -63.9                      237  77 404.3                       

TRP                                             0                             

WND                                             0                             

Sounding variables and indices

1000-500 mb thick:      5402.15 m

Freezing level:          944.25 mb =   623.19 m =  2044.56 ft

Wetbulb zero:            944.94 mb =   616.14 m =  2021.42 ft

Precipitable water:        0.64 inches

[Brick Tamland]

Colder and stronger. Sounds good. I keep staying in the 4 to 5 range.

[burgertime]

 

 

Hate to be a weenie about this but is there a reason why the NAM keeps putting that little bubble around CLT? Seems like with the precip and 850's it would be higher. 

[HKY_WX]

it's amazing how simliar this is to march 09. i remember we got prob 6 inches of snow in 3 hours during that one.

[WilkesboroDude]

This low is staying cutoff longer than most vorts do. Most of them start to open up over the ga/sc area. This could really enhance the snowfall over the comma head in NC. Especially in any area prone to upslope from the ESE. I really thought this escarpment warm pocket was bogus and I think that will be proven true.

 

Hi-res NAM still likely to show some < 2 inch pockets in the foothills...or at least 3 inches less than areas to our east. 

[jshetley]

If that map is right I get between 2-3 inches at my location in SC. Would be very nice to see.

[Met1985]

Dang we get crushed on this run again. Wow I am loving the trend.

[HurricaneTracker]

Yes, the 00Z is colder!

 

Changeover in AVL is closer to 4pm than the previous modeled value near 7pm.  Soundings also indicate classic heavy snow event here with nearly isothermal layer up to 700mb, and then a really cold sounding by 10pm.  Storm total precip 2-3" looks good - about half of which appears to be snow.  Very impressive run!

[DaculaWeather]

Much closer for the northern burbs of ATL.  Haven't looked at the soundings yet, but the deform band goes right over MBY for a solid 2 or 3 hours.  

Much better for us on this run. 

 

[DopplerWx]

This run pushes the snow line from about wadesboro to greenwood, sc

Very interesting trends, if it keeps trending this way I may make a snow chase up to the NC/SC border around chesterfield county.  Worried about temps though, would hate to make that drive and get all rain .

[John1122]

Yes, the 00Z is colder!

 

Changeover in AVL is closer to 4pm than the previous modeled value near 7pm.  Soundings also indicate classic heavy snow event here with nearly isothermal layer up to 700mb, and then a really cold sounding by 10pm.  Storm total precip 2-3" looks good - about half of which appears to be snow.  Very impressive run!

 

I noticed the biggest change to my forecast when MRX updated to the WSW for my area is it went from snow after 11am to simply snow all day tomorrow.

[rduwx]

Nam looks good to me...I might have to find some crow to eat on Friday if things play out as the models are showing.

[NCBlizzard]

This looks extremely similar to March 2009 here. Southern Cleveland County receieved upwards of 8-9" with that event. I remember distinctly watching the rain falling and literally half a second later big, fat snow flakes were falling. We had quite a large amount of rain prior to that storm here with puddles sitting everywhere, similar to what we may expect tomorrow. Ground temperatures were warm, like they will be tomorrow. The dynamics of that ULL amazed me and it looks like this one is taking a very similar track so here's to hoping.

[Met1985]

Yes, the 00Z is colder!

 

Changeover in AVL is closer to 4pm than the previous modeled value near 7pm.  Soundings also indicate classic heavy snow event here with nearly isothermal layer up to 700mb, and then a really cold sounding by 10pm.  Storm total precip 2-3" looks good - about half of which appears to be snow.  Very impressive run!

Ya I have a feeling that a lot of people are going to be surprised come Tomorrow night. I cannot believe the snow rates coming out of the mountains. Going to be fun!