Blue Ridge Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well, Morristown doesn't seem to buy in to any model hiccups... For the valley, including Knoxville and the Tri-Cities: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING.* TIMING...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY PULLING COLDER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE COLDER AIR WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW...SOME HEAVY SNOW...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY PULL DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES IN SOME AREAS. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.* EVENT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. For the higher elevations: ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM ESTTHURSDAY...* EVENT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.* TIMING...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY PULLING COLDER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE COLDER AIR WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW...SOME HEAVY SNOW...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY PULL DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES IN SOME AREAS. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This was posted on another forum from Birmingham's NWS. If extrapolated into the Atlanta area, we might be able to see > an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I would love to put the ground temp issue to bed once and for all but with real data. Anyone game for a little science experiment? I say we have as many members as possible report on the same parameters (tbd) and we compile results for future storms. It seema like we always have this issue in the SE, so wouldnt it be good to have a data set to forecast from? How often do we have the chance to get out in front of a storm like this? Who's in? What measurements do we want? We need a uniform template. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Good work...yeah...I think Boone may be the sweet spot with this one unless the 00Z models change course... An evening update on the storm. http://www.examiner.com/article/southeast-winter-storm-update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I would love to put the ground temp issue to bed once and for all but with real data. Anyone game for a little science experiment? I say we have as many members as possible report on the same parameters (tbd) and we compile results for future storms. It seema like we always have this issue in the SE, so wouldnt it be good to have a data set to forecast from? How often do we have the chance to get out in front of a storm like this? Who's in? What measurements do we want? We need a uniform template. I'd love to do it if I had an accurate thermometer. I've also noticed that with a heavy enough rate of snow ground temps don't matter much. This is why you can have accumulating hail in the middle of summer if the precipitation rate is heavy enough. Granted, it will melt quickly, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Im cautiously optomistic of maybe getting something Dixie. March 2009 comes to mind too much. I sat in rain and could literally see the snow from my upstairs window. These ULLs screw me too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I would love to put the ground temp issue to bed once and for all but with real data. Anyone game for a little science experiment? I say we have as many members as possible report on the same parameters (tbd) and we compile results for future storms. It seema like we always have this issue in the SE, so wouldnt it be good to have a data set to forecast from? How often do we have the chance to get out in front of a storm like this? Who's in? What measurements do we want? We need a uniform template. Even in mountains we look at ground temps up here: From Raysweather.com Today was not as bad but after a third day of getting wet (in the shower) the time to bring back the cold is right around the corner. As a result, our next incoming round of rain looks to turn to snow. The additional rain is important because it will swell creeks and streams again before the cold air turns the wet to white. Our final Low pressure has rain redeveloping later tonight and continuing into Thursday. Colder air will quickly wrap in behind this low changing rain to snow in the mid to late afternoon Thursday. Snow will be over by midnight Thursday night. It may be impressive for a while; however, the warm ground will cut back some on snow accumulation. We're expecting 3"-6" for most, but terrain above 4000' should see more. That is welcome news to ski slopes as we head into the MLK weekend An easy way to follow the ground soil temperatures is either: A: NC State Climate Office Cronos Sites http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/map/ http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/cronos/?station=MITC B: DOT Road Sensors (Near Real Time) NCDOT does not make NC public but SC does: Example in Charlotte area: http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_table_mesowest_m.cgi?stn=SC016&mode= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I would love to put the ground temp issue to bed once and for all but with real data. Anyone game for a little science experiment? I say we have as many members as possible report on the same parameters (tbd) and we compile results for future storms. It seema like we always have this issue in the SE, so wouldnt it be good to have a data set to forecast from? How often do we have the chance to get out in front of a storm like this? Who's in? What measurements do we want? We need a uniform template. I'm in. I'll go measure my ground temp and then report how much rain accumulates by Friday morning. Right now I have recorded 57 F from my Gen-Tech infrared thermometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM looks a little further S at hour 12, still pos tilted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 0z NAM at 12 is a little more tighly wrapped then the 18z run for the same time............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 At 18h a little faster. Than 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 HR18, looks about the same as 18z and about to turn NEG tilted...Center looks like its near Montgomery AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Faster and a little north of 18z position at 21 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Much colder for Virginia. Looks to be almost an all snow event per the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 looks like its about the same spot as the 18z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 850s crashing a bit faster compared to 18z run through 21 hours. 850 0c line was near Huntsville on 18z at 27 hours. On 0z at 21 hours its east of Chattanooga. Similarly on 18z run at 27 0C line was still up in Va. On 0z run it has reached NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like the SFC low is a smidge further south, but thats pretty close to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This run looks stronger and a tad colder to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Oh wow. Still 2 contours @ 24 HR. Same time 12z only had 1 contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Colder quicker further south has to be especially great for NC and VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Wow -- 850 0C line makes big shift east 0z compared to 18z -- was near Brevard at 30 hours on 18z -- now near Gastonia at 24 on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yowza! Boom at 27! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 northern precip shield doesn't appear to be as expansive back here in TN and SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You can really tell that low is working it's magic on this one because it was stronger later. Major snow storm for WNC even into the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Wow -- 850 0C line makes big shift east 0z compared to 18z -- was near Brevard at 30 hours on 18z -- now near Gastonia at 24 on 18z. Soundings are cooler throughout the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This looks kind of good for the Atlanta area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This run has freezing 2m temps down to I-40 @27 compared to 18z which had them staying well into the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 00z NAM appears to hold serve for east TN central valley northward. Four to seven inches on Allan's maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 At 27h -- not quite as bonkers with precip, but colder, 10m temps dramatically colder -- barely reached into NC at all on 18z -- now almost down to NC/SC line. If this is right ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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