Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes indeed. And yet some folks on Twitter feel that the roads will stay slushy all night long. I don't see how with temps that cold! Ya no way they are going to be just slush. I am sure temps all across the mountains will be crashing like this. Maybe not as low as 11 degrees since I am at 3500 feet but this is going to cause some massive traffic problems if people do not heed this warning and stay off the roads. Also like you stated earlier I think we may have a lot of power outages with the wind and soft ground and very heavy snow coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I did not follow the 09 event, but I seem to recall people said that one showed not much in Atlanta either other than maybe an inch. The fact the watch came out early may deter some people from going to work tomorrow or leaving early so maybe won't be too terrible. I live about 10 miles north of the heart of downtown Atlanta and I saw 4 inches. I think part of that was thanks to some thundersnow we observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Any opinions on soil temperatures for this one? They look rather warm, though comparable to the 1 March 2009 storm. I would tend to think that as long as snowfall rates are high enough, it shouldn't matter yet, at least on the non-asphalt surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Any opinions on soil temperatures for this one? They look rather warm, though comparable to the 1 March 2009 storm. I would tend to think that as long as snowfall rates are high enough, it shouldn't matter yet, at least on the non-asphalt surfaces. Can this debate be over with already? If the rate is high enough throw them out the window. Might be harder to cover streets but I'm betting in the sweet spots after 30 minutes the ground will begin to turn white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Any opinions on soil temperatures for this one? They look rather warm, though comparable to the 1 March 2009 storm. I would tend to think that as long as snowfall rates are high enough, it shouldn't matter yet, at least on the non-asphalt surfaces. Soil temps are good. My sleet storm stuck with only moderate rates and the ground turned white for several hours. Only the roads managed to melt before the sun came up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the heavy rates will overcome the warm soil...BUT...I imagine in places where the soil temp is in the 50s (like my area) the snow will melt rather quickly once it comes to an end. Regardless...I'm going to be very pleased to see some snow and whatever accumulates is a bonus at this point in this particular season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm a Buncombe County School bus driver and just received a call which was to all parents and bus drivers that we should have no problem tomorrow starting school but for parents and bus drivers to be prepared for a possible early dismissal to get kids home before the change over from rain to heavy snow. They could if everything still looks spot on tomorrow start releasing school around 11 or noon so all kids are home and buses are back to schools before the roads become slick. this is all depending on how things are looking in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Can this debate be over with already? If the rate is high enough throw them out the window. Might be harder to cover streets but I'm betting in the sweet spots after 30 minutes the ground will begin to turn white. Not being snarky at all but it is a respectable valid point of discussion. As the snow falls and accumulates over relatively warm ground, it most definetely will melt from the ground up, and from the top also if the air temperature is also above freezing. On this storm, it will even be an issue for a while in the mountains as general soil temperature above 4000' is around 43 degrees during this recent warm and rainy spell. Down in the Piedmont, the soil temperature is now around 55 degrees. (See NC Cronos real time obsevations) I witness this all the time between home in Linville and work in Charlotte. In the mountains with generally frozen ground, the snow hangs around longer and does not melt from the ground up. Of course, snow on top of snow is even better! Down in Charlotte when snows almost always fall over non-frozen ground, one can always easily tell it is melting from the bottom as it falls. Here's to hoping everyone gets to wake up to white ground cover across a large part of the Carolinas at sunrise Friday morning! Be sure and be out EARLY before sunrise to enjoy it all as the sun comes up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm a Buncombe County School bus driver and just received a call which was to all parents and bus drivers that we should have no problem tomorrow starting school but for parents and bus drivers to be prepared for a possible early dismissal to get kids home before the change over from rain to heavy snow. They could if everything still looks spot on tomorrow start releasing school around 11 or noon so all kids are home and buses are back to schools before the roads become slick. this is all depending on how things are looking in the morning. I completely agree with this assessment. I don't see any rain to snow changeover prior to noon. Earliest guess would be 2pm, but it could be as late as 5pm. I think Friday morning will be your biggest issue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 WxinCanton and Emerson, I like the way things are beginning to shape up here fellas. No, we won't get the insane totals that the NC mountains will get but I think we will see, at least, a couple of inches out of this. You have to love the trends in strength and I think that deformation band could really hammer someone very close to our area. You and Emerson to my NW stand to do a little better IMO. But we shall see, I agree some place in N. GA could get the goods!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well, one of our local mets just posted his snowfall prediction for Tri-Cities, based on RPM...for the more experienced folks on this board - does this seem reasonable, based on the models we have seen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Can this debate be over with already? If the rate is high enough throw them out the window. Might be harder to cover streets but I'm betting in the sweet spots after 30 minutes the ground will begin to turn white. Hi-Res NAM has 40dbz returns over the CLT area. That'll stick to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well, one of our local mets just posted his snowfall prediction for Tri-Cities, based on RPM...for the more experienced folks on this board - does this seem reasonable, based on the models we have seen? Unfortunately KTRI looks primed to get hosed again. RPM and latest hi-res NAM give us very little. Such a turnaround with 18z....... Oh we'll, best of luck you guys in NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Stole this from Andy's (ColdRainsStr8cashhomey) blog. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=500mb# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 That deformation band is either going to be my bane or salvation - depending on exactly where it sets up. But to your March '09 point.... (see the bolded)...and south of CLT. It seems as though people remember the waiting more than the snowing (besides the fact that it bowled through here at night). With this current system, for most of us that will endure a changeover, I believe it will happen something like this: Lots and lots of rain....then a quick change to heavy, wet snow. It will seem like a long wait, but I don't think it will be a slow process once it begins. I was actually thinking more 3-6, but hell - I'll take just 3 of those hours with the rates the NAM is advertising. I suppose it's a matter of perspective though. It is difficult for me to understand why there still seems to be so much doubt about what the dynamics of a strong ULL can do. Give me the first hour of 2"-3" snow fall rates - the next 2 hours are gravy. yep I will take 1-3 hours of some heavy snow over the Greenville Spartanburg area after a long waiting game on the changeover the warm ground argument seems like a good one until you see the snow come down with pace and vigor at 1-2" per hour under intense dynamics... then you look back and never question the potential of being in the northern fringe of a closed 850mb low and cold core where good vertical motion causes enhanced precip rates and throttles any sort of "warm" ground temperature argument... it's all about sustained heavy rates, but some folks will get those good luck to all - north, south east and west of GSP... I have to get up early to do the morning show and then a trip to Tavelers Rest or possibly northern Spart. county tomorrow to see some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 yep I will take 1-3 hours of some heavy snow over the Greenville Spartanburg area after a long waiting game on the changeover the warm ground argument seems like a good one until you see the snow come down with pace and vigor at 1-2" per hour under intense dynamics... then you look back and never question the potential of being in the northern fringe of a closed 850mb low and cold core where good vertical motion causes enhanced precip rates and throttles any sort of "warm" ground temperature argument... it's all about sustained heavy rates, but some folks will get those good luck to all - north, south east and west of GSP... I have to get up early to do the morning show and then a trip to Tavelers Rest or possibly northern Spart. county tomorrow to see some Travelers Rest? Surely not for a chase.... I doubt we'll see more than a sloppy inch here but obviously you're the expert on this Appreciate your insight/input this winter by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well, one of our local mets just posted his snowfall prediction for Tri-Cities, based on RPM...for the more experienced folks on this board - does this seem reasonable, based on the models we have seen? That's laughable, especially the NC mtn totals. Take that with a block of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Stole this from Andy's (ColdRainsStr8cashhomey) blog. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=500mb# good luck Don, Weaverville looking mighty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Unfortunately KTRI looks primed to get hosed again. RPM and latest hi-res NAM give us very little. Such a turnaround with 18z....... Oh we'll, best of luck you guys in NC! Yes, good luck down east! Things can change, but I usually hug the NAM in this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You would really think BMX and FFC would coordinate in these kind of situation. Up to 4 inches of snow is forecasted in the county 15 miles to my west and FFC is saying 1/2" or less for me. Very confusing. That's right, up to 4 inches SOUTH of I-20. FFC says very little south of I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Travelers Rest? Surely not for a chase.... I doubt we'll see more than a sloppy inch here but obviously you're the expert on this Appreciate your insight/input this winter by the way. you got it man yeah meant more like TR north to highway 25 or possibly Hwy 276 in Spart county if the warm nose starts being a b&%$# but hopefully the warm nose will stay west instead of nudging eastward in the mid-levels... I dont expect much more than a couple hour window of time for snow to happen in TR... but hey it's a better chance in TR than Greenville or Mauldin somehow that warm pocket always finds a way to make an appearance down here within my DMA on the lee-side of the NC mountains, yet it normally migrates over into NE Georgia locations and also western Upstate only reason i can't take the land barge north is because I have to be back at work 3:30am Fri to do Friday morning's show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 good luck Don, Weaverville looking mighty Thanks Andy!....check out my last post on your blog. If you don't find snow in TR you can always come hang with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 My soil temps are better than they where march 09. The thing to be watchful of is the thermal profile above ground. The qpf is a lock and the rates will be heavy enough to accumulate if/when the changeover occurs in everyone's backyard. The transition time is the million dollar question everyone should be focusing on. Need this pup to stay closed off and hold/gain strength all the way to coast. Obs and verification to our west will tell the story from lunchtime onward starting tomorrow. I went back into eastern thread for march 09 event and caught a few comments about the same concerns being brought forth tonight leading up to that event. Of course we all know how they got answered. Wildre was in rare form prior to that event. Wow had created an obs thread once things got rolling but I could never find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You would really think BMX and FFC would coordinate in these kind of situation. Up to 4 inches of snow is forecasted in the county 15 miles to my west and FFC is saying 1/2" or less for me. Very confusing. That's right, up to 4 inches SOUTH of I-20. FFC says very little south of I-20. You get so caught up in the minutia at this stage of the game. Any shift south will put you in the game. Just sit back and watch the details unfold. Your worrying won't change a darn thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 My soil temps are better than they where march 09. The thing to be watchful of is the thermal profile above ground. The qpf is a lock and the rates will be heavy enough to accumulate if/when the changeover occurs in everyone's backyard. The transition time is the million dollar question everyone should be focusing on. Need this pup to stay closed off and hold/gain strength all the way to coast. Obs and verification to our west will tell the story from lunchtime onward starting tomorrow. I went back into eastern thread for march 09 event and caught a few comments about the same concerns being brought forth tonight leading up to that event. Of course we all know how they got answered. Wildre was in rare form prior to that event. Wow had created an obs thread once things got rolling but I could never find it. That was the night that the tree fell on Robert's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You would really think BMX and FFC would coordinate in these kind of situation. Up to 4 inches of snow is forecasted in the county 15 miles to my west and FFC is saying 1/2" or less for me. Very confusing. That's right, up to 4 inches SOUTH of I-20. FFC says very little south of I-20. I always get a kick out of those maps where the snow/sleet falls as far down as LaGrange on the Ala side, but in Ga. can't find the ground below I 20. Rest assured if the county to your west in Ala is getting snow, you will too. The Haarp derainamizers only work on rain most storms, but I've seen heavy snow warnings over there end up giving me squat, so it isn't always the case. Watch the vapor loop, and it you see the low coming over you or down here, go outside and look up. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I don't remember the last time a winter event over performed for RDU. Usually we are very close the model consensus or lower. 2000 and 2005? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The last overperformer for Raleigh was inauguration day 2009 (January 20th). Sorry wrong year posted in my previous post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 An evening update on the storm. http://www.examiner.com/article/southeast-winter-storm-update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 An evening update on the storm. http://www.examiner.com/article/southeast-winter-storm-update'>http://www.examiner.com/article/southeast-winter-storm-update Great job. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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