kvegas-wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 News 14 forecast just showed a rapidly moving system with a peak snowfall period of 4-6 hours. The system will have to overcome ground temps, air temps that will be dynamically cooled and then the heaviest snow wont be around long. I've seen this before.....we all have. Throw in a token dry slot for some lucky souls and you could easily turn an overperformer into an underachiever. Manage expectations folks. Anyone disagree with a snowfall period of 6, maybe 8 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 austin said this morning possible wintry weather tomorrow night with a low of 40. So this has changed. Van Denton has been talking about all week of it possibly coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NicInNC, on 16 Jan 2013 - 17:16, said: What are the chances of us getting in one of those "dry holes"? Is it a possibility with this storm? Yes, that even shows up on the twister-maps. 3,6,12 is all bundled up tightly too...there will be screw zones so to speak. I doubt we know those areas until watching radar trends...models won't know...they sometimes catch snow shadows in the foothills but not dry holes most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ensembles clearly trending toward a decent snowfall event for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 News 14 forecast just showed a rapidly moving system with a peak snowfall period of 4-6 hours. The system will have to overcome ground temps, air temps that will be dynamically cooled and then the heaviest snow wont be around long. I've seen this before.....we all have. Throw in a token dry slot for some lucky souls and you could easily turn an overperformer into an underachiever. Manage expectations folks. Anyone disagree with a snowfall period of 6, maybe 8 hours? That has always been in play and no one has said the snows would last longer than 6 hours. Warm ground yet again is getting thrown around too much. In areas with heavy 2 inch per hour rates the warm ground goes out the window in about 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 News 14 forecast just showed a rapidly moving system with a peak snowfall period of 4-6 hours. The system will have to overcome ground temps, air temps that will be dynamically cooled and then the heaviest snow wont be around long. I've seen this before.....we all have. Throw in a token dry slot for some lucky souls and you could easily turn an overperformer into an underachiever. Manage expectations folks. Anyone disagree with a snowfall period of 6, maybe 8 hours? If we get 4-6 hours heavy snow I think we DO get a good 4 inches easy. I'm guessing closer to 2 hours. Be awesome if we can just get a colder storm/quicker changeover than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm really interested in this period from about 3pm to 7pm tomorrow over western NC. That's when some very intense VV's will overspread the region. There's a good chance this could change things to snow earlier than the mod's suggest IMO. That small banding signature has been showing up for days and IMO will be an interesting thing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I tried to find it for you but back then it was a lot more messy on the board...feel free to search around. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/15-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/page__prune_day__100__sort_by__Z-A__sort_key__last_post__topicfilter__all__st__5300 all I know it was in the upper 40's near 50 on the day before the 09 storm. I never thought it would snow but ended up getting 11 inches however it was all gone piles and all by Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 News 14 forecast just showed a rapidly moving system with a peak snowfall period of 4-6 hours. The system will have to overcome ground temps, air temps that will be dynamically cooled and then the heaviest snow wont be around long. I've seen this before.....we all have. Throw in a token dry slot for some lucky souls and you could easily turn an overperformer into an underachiever. Manage expectations folks. Anyone disagree with a snowfall period of 6, maybe 8 hours? It's gonna be more like 4-6 but up to 2" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm really interested in this period from about 3pm to 7pm tomorrow over western NC. That's when some very intense VV's will overspread the region. There's a good chance this could change things to snow earlier than the mod's suggest IMO. That small banding signature has been showing up for days and IMO will be an interesting thing to watch. The 4km WRF was showing this as 850's just collapse east as the band pivots eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Dude March of 2009 was awesome for CLT we ended up with 3-5 with super heavy rates. I remember distinctly walking to The Penguin during the heart of it to go buy pitchers of beer. I also remember walking back three sheets to the wind as it was winding down and it was long snowy cold walk. Personally I feel like this is going to overperform for us but we shall see. I don't remember the last time a winter event over performed for RDU. Usually we are very close the model consensus or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It seems like most local mets here in CLT are not buying the accumluations either. Even though we're under a WSW, they're mostly calling for a dusting/sloppy inch. I think I buy that a bit more than the intense models. Just from memory, it took forever for March 2009 to changeover, so did the Christmas storm 2 years ago. I think the deformation band is going to be so quick and so brief (buy heavy yes) that I don't think much will have time to overtake the boundary layer temps and ground temps. Just eccstatic we've got a threat this year though. Hopefully in a few weeks we can get a true Miller A. That deformation band is either going to be my bane or salvation - depending on exactly where it sets up. But to your March '09 point.... Dude March of 2009 was awesome for CLT we ended up with 3-5 with super heavy rates. I remember distinctly walking to The Penguin during the heart of it to go buy pitchers of beer. I also remember walking back three sheets to the wind as it was winding down and it was long snowy cold walk. Personally I feel like this is going to overperform for us but we shall see. (see the bolded)...and south of CLT. It seems as though people remember the waiting more than the snowing (besides the fact that it bowled through here at night). With this current system, for most of us that will endure a changeover, I believe it will happen something like this: Lots and lots of rain....then a quick change to heavy, wet snow. It will seem like a long wait, but I don't think it will be a slow process once it begins. News 14 forecast just showed a rapidly moving system with a peak snowfall period of 4-6 hours. The system will have to overcome ground temps, air temps that will be dynamically cooled and then the heaviest snow wont be around long. I've seen this before.....we all have. Throw in a token dry slot for some lucky souls and you could easily turn an overperformer into an underachiever. Manage expectations folks. Anyone disagree with a snowfall period of 6, maybe 8 hours? I was actually thinking more 3-6, but hell - I'll take just 3 of those hours with the rates the NAM is advertising. I suppose it's a matter of perspective though. It is difficult for me to understand why there still seems to be so much doubt about what the dynamics of a strong ULL can do. Give me the first hour of 2"-3" snow fall rates - the next 2 hours are gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't remember the last time a winter event over performed for RDU. Usually we are very close the model consensus or lower. I would agree with that. With these ULLs, they tend to weaken and open up as they approach us and/or track over or north of our area, so the do tend to underperform here...at least it seems that way. For our friends out west, I think they stand to do very well. And it always seems to snow at night lately too. In this case that's probably good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm really interested in this period from about 3pm to 7pm tomorrow over western NC. That's when some very intense VV's will overspread the region. There's a good chance this could change things to snow earlier than the mod's suggest IMO. That small banding signature has been showing up for days and IMO will be an interesting thing to watch. Was thinking about this too. How much UVM do you need to dynamically cool a column to produce snow? New data valid at 18Z sounding has 850mb temps way above zero, then crashing to zero by 00Z. I know intense VV's can cool the column quickly, but just HOW quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I would agree with that. With these ULLs, they tend to weaken and open up as they approach us and/or track over or north of our area, so the do tend to underperform here...at least it seems that way. For our friends out west, I think they stand to do very well. And it always seems to snow at night lately too. In this case that's probably good. it seems its always on a thurs or sat-sun for us to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Because they're not so sure we won't get snow. Almost every model has shown trace to no snow for the vast majority of the metro area...The only way we would get snow is if the ULL system moved east from Birmingham similar to the March 2009 event. If this happened however, this would drastically change the track of the ULL and would screw others over who are currently modeled for snow in the upper parts of the south. I would love for it to do that and snow for us, but I just don't see it happening this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I would agree with that. With these ULLs, they tend to weaken and open up as they approach us and/or track over or north of our area, so the do tend to underperform here...at least it seems that way. For our friends out west, I think they stand to do very well. And it always seems to snow at night lately too. In this case that's probably good. We are looking at 3-6 hours of snow, if its 3 we are looking at a sloppy inch that has probably melted by the time we wake up. We are hoping this flips by 10pm, if it flips at midnight we will be disappointed for sure. Will be fun to watch. I sure wish I was in Winston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Was thinking about this too. How much UVM do you need to dynamically cool a column to produce snow? New data valid at 18Z sounding has 850mb temps way above zero, then crashing to zero by 00Z. I know intense VV's can cool the column quickly, but just HOW quickly? We'll see. But I like the position we're in to be honest. The best location period is probably from around Boone up to Martinsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We are so borderline that it wouldn't take a 50 mile jog south to accumulate in metro Atlanta. Knowing that, they want to warn more than 4 million people that the potential is there. These types of systems are known to generate many surprises as they evolve and many of those evolution's aren't known until hours before sometimes. I have a suspicion this will surprise a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wowo just looked at the forecast for here and they have our high being at midnight tonight and tomorrow night low of 11 degrees. Just wow huge drop in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WxinCanton and Emerson, I like the way things are beginning to shape up here fellas. No, we won't get the insane totals that the NC mountains will get but I think we will see, at least, a couple of inches out of this. You have to love the trends in strength and I think that deformation band could really hammer someone very close to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wowo just looked at the forecast for here and they have our high being at midnight tonight and tomorrow night low of 11 degrees. Just wow huge drop in temps. Yes indeed. And yet some folks on Twitter feel that the roads will stay slushy all night long. I don't see how with temps that cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Problem is I have class at GSU in the afternoon tomorrow. If it does somehow surprise Atlanta and throws down a few inches(I doubt it, but one can hope), it's likely I'll be stuck in downtown for the evening/night. Models just haven't really put down anything for Atlanta...you'd think by now, they at least put down an inch if it would snow tomorrow. I know however, that mesoscale features can determine a lot in these types of system and if cold air just happens to get dragged down faster, it could snow sooner. I also know this system WILL screw someone over who is currently forecast for snow. I think models tonight/tomorrow morning will have the ultimate lockdown on what's going to happen. I just don't believe this will be a nowcast event for Atlanta. I did not follow the 09 event, but I seem to recall people said that one showed not much in Atlanta either other than maybe an inch. The fact the watch came out early may deter some people from going to work tomorrow or leaving early so maybe won't be too terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No one talked about the relative snowless 18z NAM hi-res...... As compared to most other modeling. Any met care to speak to this. Looked meh to me. Hiccup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I did not follow the 09 event, but I seem to recall people said that one showed not much in Atlanta either other than maybe an inch. The fact the watch came out early may deter some people from going to work tomorrow or leaving early so maybe won't be too terrible. Yeah, my area wasn't forecast to get much at all in March 2009, and bam, incredibly heavy snowfall and about 6 inches of snow in about 6 hours of snowfall. About 20 miles east of Atlanta. The day before, temps were in the high 60s, I think. I would love for that to happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Probably January, 2000 Incorrect. Inauguration Day 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/conusnest/conusnest_18z_refc_animate.html Looks good for NW GA this frame. run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WxinCanton and Emerson, I like the way things are beginning to shape up here fellas. No, we won't get the insane totals that the NC mountains will get but I think we will see, at least, a couple of inches out of this. You have to love the trends in strength and I think that deformation band could really hammer someone very close to our area. I may take a little trip up 75 to near you guys if I need to. Yes the trends are good for our area, just gotta hope it slides a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No one talked about the relative snowless 18z NAM hi-res...... As compared to most other modeling. Any met care to speak to this. Looked meh to me. Hiccup? At least for me on RaleighWX's site, the 60hr snowfall map hasn't updated. Here is what looks to be the updated one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm not really enthused for accumulations over here. I bet we see a couple of hours of moderate snow that will likely refuse to stick. The high res nam in particular is not kind to the TN valley. It actually has better accumulations around Rome but they stop near the state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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