HurricaneTracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Updated to give KTRI an inch or less. What am I missing? Kind of comical to be honest. You are not missing anything. Everything I've seen suggests 4-8" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Brad Panovich5 minutes ago Biggest issues with this winter storm will be heavy snow accumulations on trees & power-lines. Roads should stay wet & slushy. Early thoughts 2" in metro Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You are not missing anything. Everything I've seen suggests 4-8" for you. Thanks for the reply Tracker...............Best of luck to you guys on the other side of the mountain. The hi-res NAM was unbelievably juicy for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For those looking for 4km NAM graphics. Here is my page. I am still tweaking things so a few parameters arent plotting. But here it is: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/NAM4km.html Wow just look at those rates in WNC. It is going to be hammering down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WOW talk about Conservative? RNK snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 New GFS rolling in... looking good for WNC at hr 30! Heavy precip and crashing 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks for the reply Tracker...............Best of luck to you guys on the other side of the mountain. The hi-res NAM was unbelievably juicy for you guys! Thanks! It's gonna be quite a day tomorrow. And I think it's gonna catch a lot of folks by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Brad Panovich5 minutes ago Biggest issues with this winter storm will be heavy snow accumulations on trees & power-lines. Roads should stay wet & slushy. Early thoughts 2" in metro Charlotte. I'm going to be honest with you. Tweets and statements like this are not entirely accurate. Roads may be mostly wet and slushy....................but let 2-3 inch per hour rates come down and there will be traffic problems. For his area, this should be AFTER rush. For my area, not so much. During the heavy snow, roads easily become treacherous. Kind of misleading IMO. Someone getting his twitter feed could be out on the roads thinking no problems tomorrow night and then bam.......find themselves in a ditch or the back of another car with heavy snow falling all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I respectfully disagree. The bulk of the precip occurs during the transition time. Yes, the snow window is 5pm to 10pm, but with possible thundersnow and very intense upward vertical velocities ( > 24 umb/s), I expect snowfall rates to be 2-3" per hour. Subtract the first hour for melting and making slush, and then the rest of the time, 7-10pm for snow. That gives us an easy 6". This is a very dynamic system! Surface temps will be offset by the heavy snowfall rates, and "warm ground" will be quickly overtaken as well. This system is being underrated, yet all the maps I've seen suggest a really powerhouse storm. Do not underestimate the power of the ULL, mid-lapse rates, and snowfall rates! Very strongly agree. Two things are at play here the main one being temps right now. Many I've told at the office have given me a blank stare and said,"but it's not cold enough". The other is no media has jumped on board really...which they seem to be doing now. Folks in WNC especially around I-40 should be preparing for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS looks extremely good to me. Notice that 540 line being dragged down on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For those looking for 4km NAM graphics. Here is my page. I am still tweaking things so a few parameters arent plotting. But here it is: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/NAM4km.html Hr 33 on the reflectivity Can you say megaband??? Also looks like 850's crash hard by hr 30-31 even in CLT with that band right over head. Looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes please! NO SNOW HOLE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes please! NO SNOW HOLE! That Map says get out the snow plows, Triad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If the NAM is a little over and the GFS is a little under, then I'd say this is looking good for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Update by KGSP as of 430pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Very strongly agree. Two things are at play here the main one being temps right now. Many I've told at the office have given me a blank stare and said,"but it's not cold enough". The other is no media has jumped on board really...which they seem to be doing now. Folks in WNC especially around I-40 should be preparing for this one. I agree with your "agree" - if the rates the NAM is spitting out verify, there is no question (or there shouldn't be) as to whether or not this storm becomes problematic on top of just tree limbs. The underlined part is baffling to me. I will give credit to Fox Carolina here locally as being the first to step out on that limb a couple of days ago. But I get the same responses you have been receiving. I still think the brunt will occur from the NC/SC line north and west. And it won't just be heavy limbs and bushes that will have snow cover when all is said and done. The 00Z will cement my inclinations for areas south of NC (SC related), but as of right now there will be rain - lots of it, possibly becoming slushy as a change over happens with brief but heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'll tell you what I would LOVE to see if anybody saved them -- soundings from the March 09 event. I just can't get past the BL issues here -- I know about dynamic cooling and the power of these upper lows, but the models should have that factored in as well, right? My recollection from Marhc 09 is that the soundings DID show the lower levels getting to or below freezing during the bulk of the precip. Am I wrong? Anybody have that in their archives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WXII still saying only 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'll tell you what I would LOVE to see if anybody saved them -- soundings from the March 09 event. I just can't get past the BL issues here -- I know about dynamic cooling and the power of these upper lows, but the models should have that factored in as well, right? My recollection from Marhc 09 is that the soundings DID show the lower levels getting to or below freezing during the bulk of the precip. Am I wrong? Anybody have that in their archives? I've yet to see a model really be able to depict the dynamics of a true, powerful ULL. This is one of the reasons people have such a hard time believing a snow prog when it's warm and surface temps are marginal at best. It probably also contributes to the difficulty in forecasting what they will produce. However, I have seen enough outcomes from these ULL's to know that with a high enough rate, I need not worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 244 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING... .A STALLED SURFACE FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...A COLD POLAR AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO GEORGIA. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EAST GEORGIA. AS THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD SWING INTO THE COLD AIR MASS AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-030>035-041>045-171000- /O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0001.130117T1800Z-130118T1500Z/ DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW- CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB- NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS- SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND... ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA... LAWRENCEVILLE...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR 244 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO JEFFERSON. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLACK ICE. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA. * TIMING...SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. * IMPACTS...LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. BLACK ICE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW EVENING. Don't this seem like alittle much for this far south into GA down to the i-985 i-85 split! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Battle initiated...WXII12 vs. Fox8. How high will they go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Anytime you are east of the mountains, getting dry slotted is always a possibility...I think that is why these television stations are going so low with their totals east of the mountains...they have been burnt one two many times going too high with their forecast totals. However, with that said, I think the potential to bust too LOW on this event might be more of a possibility than going too high this go around given the strong dynamics. Thanks for posting the FOX 8 totals. It's always fun to watch the different channels and their guesses. What are the chances of us getting in one of those "dry holes"? Is it a possibility with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 My updated call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'll tell you what I would LOVE to see if anybody saved them -- soundings from the March 09 event. I just can't get past the BL issues here -- I know about dynamic cooling and the power of these upper lows, but the models should have that factored in as well, right? My recollection from Marhc 09 is that the soundings DID show the lower levels getting to or below freezing during the bulk of the precip. Am I wrong? Anybody have that in their archives? I tried to find it for you but back then it was a lot more messy on the board...feel free to search around. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/15-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/page__prune_day__100__sort_by__Z-A__sort_key__last_post__topicfilter__all__st__5300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I agree with your "agree" - if the rates the NAM is spitting out verify, there is no question (or there shouldn't be) as to whether or not this storm becomes problematic on top of just tree limbs. The underlined part is baffling to me. I will give credit to Fox Carolina here locally as being the first to step out on that limb a couple of days ago. But I get the same responses you have been receiving. I still think the brunt will occur from the NC/SC line north and west. And it won't just be heavy limbs and bushes that will have snow cover when all is said and done. The 00Z will cement my inclinations for areas south of NC (SC related), but as of right now there will be rain - lots of it, possibly becoming slushy as a change over happens with brief but heavy rates. coldrainhomey is not afraid to lay the weenie on the line. His call from yesterday for 3to 8 for the mtns is looking good. 15z sref destroys the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'll tell you what I would LOVE to see if anybody saved them -- soundings from the March 09 event. I just can't get past the BL issues here -- I know about dynamic cooling and the power of these upper lows, but the models should have that factored in as well, right? My recollection from Marhc 09 is that the soundings DID show the lower levels getting to or below freezing during the bulk of the precip. Am I wrong? Anybody have that in their archives? It seems like most local mets here in CLT are not buying the accumluations either. Even though we're under a WSW, they're mostly calling for a dusting/sloppy inch. I think I buy that a bit more than the intense models. Just from memory, it took forever for March 2009 to changeover, so did the Christmas storm 2 years ago. I think the deformation band is going to be so quick and so brief (buy heavy yes) that I don't think much will have time to overtake the boundary layer temps and ground temps. Just eccstatic we've got a threat this year though. Hopefully in a few weeks we can get a true Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Finally a map from TV that looks realistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It seems like most local mets here in CLT are not buying the accumluations either. Even though we're under a WSW, they're mostly calling for a dusting/sloppy inch. I think I buy that a bit more than the intense models. Just from memory, it took forever for March 2009 to changeover, so did the Christmas storm 2 years ago. I think the deformation band is going to be so quick and so brief (buy heavy yes) that I don't think much will have time to overtake the boundary layer temps and ground temps. Just eccstatic we've got a threat this year though. Hopefully in a few weeks we can get a true Miller A. Dude March of 2009 was awesome for CLT we ended up with 3-5 with super heavy rates. I remember distinctly walking to The Penguin during the heart of it to go buy pitchers of beer. I also remember walking back three sheets to the wind as it was winding down and it was long snowy cold walk. Personally I feel like this is going to overperform for us but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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