Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 TV mets, at least in my area, and I'm assuming in most other areas of the SE are going to play any snow fcst VERY conservatively. It's easy to play catch up but once you say "its going to snow 6" " then its hard to take that back. Your best bet is to totally ignore their on air forecast and stay right here. You may want to look up the different mets on Facebook or Twitter where they can be a little more candid. Oh I agree. The local weather station here is very conservative with snow here in the mountains unless it affects Asheville the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 These forecasts seem to be way below what the models are showing. Do people just not trust the models or is there something else at play? Brick as long as you have been on the board you should know the answer to your question. The media is usually 9 times outta 10 very conservative with any winter weather, they are afraid to get burned because more people will be pissed if they over predict than if they under predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Out to 6 might be a hair north...looks close to 12z hard to tell if it is still stronger or not. Let's check back at around 20 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Plus, all these pretty snowfall maps rarely ever verify like they show. People need to understand that a model's snowfall map posted on a weather board, while fun to talk about, is not the same as an official prediction by a professional forecaster. Good gravy. Yes I no it is better to go conservative than dive right into a prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Stronger @12 on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 myfox8 Yet another snow map that sharply cuts off exactly at the SC state line. You know I've been across that state line a hundred times and I never noticed that wall there before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Winter Storm Watch, 2 to 4 for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 18z NAM a touch stronger, a touch farther north and getting to neutral faster than 12 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Winter Storm Watch now for the northern third of Georgia. FFC being more aggressive than usual concerning winter weather. Good to see a proactive rather than reactive forecast! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA244 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY INTOFRIDAY MORNING....A STALLED SURFACE FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINTO MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHAS A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...A COLDPOLAR AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO GEORGIA. AT THE SURFACE...A LOWBEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EAST GEORGIA. AS THIS LOW TRACKS TOTHE NORTHEAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD SWING INTO THE COLDAIR MASS AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIATHURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD BEIN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-030>035-041>045-171000-/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0001.130117T1800Z-130118T1500Z/DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR244 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHFRIDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO JEFFERSON.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLACK ICE.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA.* TIMING...SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.* IMPACTS...LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. BLACK ICE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW EVENING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 2 inches is enough to not get everyone in a panic and also not get egg on your face when it doesn't go that way. Are you kidding me?! I just got back from the store and the panic is already beginning. Harris Teeter only had like 5 gallons of whole milk left. My mom called and said that Aldi's was mobbed with people. The local mets are only calling for a trace the last I saw, so it takes a lot less than 2 inches to get people in a panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Something from NWS-RAH implying dry air will affect the totals. Where have we seen that before? How many of us have seen a winter event unfold before our eyes, loaded with precip, head our way and then just as it reaches our door the precip evaporates from the radar. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC100 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY......IT IS RARE THAT CENTRAL NC RECEIVES SUBSTANTIAL(ADVISORYWORTHY)SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. INSTEAD...WE TYPICALLY SEE ONLY A DUSTINGRESTRICTED TO GRASSY AREAS AND/OR ELEVATED SURFACES. IN FACT...BUFRSOUNDINGS WOULD ARGUE FOR THAT POINT...SHOWING STRONG DEEP LAYERDRYING WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE CAA FROM THE WEST AS THE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Let the NWS put out watches/warnings and the media will follow suite, but not until then. Look at WSW in North GA all the way to almost UGA's doghouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 At 15 hours, 18z NAM and 12z NAM almost identical at 500. At 850, low almost closed off on 18z run -- sooner than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Something from NWS-RAH implying dry air will affect the totals. Where have we seen that before? How many of us have seen a winter event unfold before our eyes, loaded with precip, head our way and then just as it reaches our door the precip evaporates from the radar. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC100 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY......IT IS RARE THAT CENTRAL NC RECEIVES SUBSTANTIAL(ADVISORYWORTHY)SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. INSTEAD...WE TYPICALLY SEE ONLY A DUSTINGRESTRICTED TO GRASSY AREAS AND/OR ELEVATED SURFACES. IN FACT...BUFRSOUNDINGS WOULD ARGUE FOR THAT POINT...SHOWING STRONG DEEP LAYERDRYING WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE CAA FROM THE WEST AS THE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA.... Seriously? Hope this is one time that it doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Something from NWS-RAH implying dry air will affect the totals. Where have we seen that before? How many of us have seen a winter event unfold before our eyes, loaded with precip, head our way and then just as it reaches our door the precip evaporates from the radar. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC100 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY......IT IS RARE THAT CENTRAL NC RECEIVES SUBSTANTIAL(ADVISORYWORTHY)SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. INSTEAD...WE TYPICALLY SEE ONLY A DUSTINGRESTRICTED TO GRASSY AREAS AND/OR ELEVATED SURFACES. IN FACT...BUFRSOUNDINGS WOULD ARGUE FOR THAT POINT...SHOWING STRONG DEEP LAYERDRYING WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE CAA FROM THE WEST AS THE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA.... I think you will see RAH put out WSW's for INT and probably GSO for 3-5" and a WWA for RDU for 1-2", but they will preface that RDU will be on grassy surfaces with no impact to travel. I agree, the 4km HWRF had 1-2" for RDU with more NW. I imagine we see the NAM tick NW more, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Something from NWS-RAH implying dry air will affect the totals. Where have we seen that before? How many of us have seen a winter event unfold before our eyes, loaded with precip, head our way and then just as it reaches our door the precip evaporates from the radar. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC100 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY......IT IS RARE THAT CENTRAL NC RECEIVES SUBSTANTIAL(ADVISORYWORTHY)SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. INSTEAD...WE TYPICALLY SEE ONLY A DUSTINGRESTRICTED TO GRASSY AREAS AND/OR ELEVATED SURFACES. IN FACT...BUFRSOUNDINGS WOULD ARGUE FOR THAT POINT...SHOWING STRONG DEEP LAYERDRYING WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE CAA FROM THE WEST AS THE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA.... This was written at 3:00 this a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 @18 it looks to me a little weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looks like its moving a bit SE.....maybe a bit south this run so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Winter Storm Watch, 2 to 4 for this area. Wow...very surprised WSW in Atlanta metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 interesting that MRX hasn't issued their afternoon package yet. I guess for them to forecast a WSW for KTRI it's going to have to be falling from the sky. I wonder if they are mulling over issuing a WSW for our area, and upgrading the mtns to a warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 At 21 hours --- lost a bit of its tilt and a bit SW of 12z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looks like its moving a bit SE.....maybe a bit south this run so far? I thought it was just a little weaker...still looks a little weaker to me @21 also looks slightly more positively tilted to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well it's a hair/whisker south and slower, but it's really negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well it's a hair/whisker south and slower, but it's really negligible. A hair/whisker south would be very important for our area. We don't want this thing to go any farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 RAH has this in their latest discussion. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPDATED SHORTLY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well it's a hair/whisker south and slower, but it's really negligible. Hard to tell what will happen moving forward in the run but for MBY that hair is going to be a big difference in totals I'll bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 RAH has this in their latest discussion. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPDATED SHORTLY... They are waiting for the next model runs. I don't blam them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Still two contour at 27 this is about to get good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WSW for Metro Atlanta doesn't make much sense to me, but what do I know. And I was going to the grocery store later, not anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A hair/whisker south would be very important for our area. We don't want this thing to go any farther north. Yes, would rather see it move south instead of north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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