Snow haven Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If this is trending further south does that mean temps will be further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't blame you or any forecaster one bit for playing this conservatively. Honestly, I don't envy any of you -- hard to imagine a tougher call than this one. I was looking through some MOS products and noticed the fcsted winds and thought...oh no!! This might do a number on a lot of trees, which in turn will knock out power to many! I think many forecasters are quite gun shy right now, including myself. This does has the chance to be quite the snowstorm and YES, I've seen heavy snowfall overcome warm roads/yards. It turns into a slushy mess and with temps expected to bottom out in the upper 20s, once the storm exits out to sea, black ice is going to be a HUGE problem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Updated to include 12z GFS Just for kicks...12z NAM and GFS extracted data snowfall totals for a few cities... NAM totals on the left and GFS on the right. Huntsville, AL - 1.5" / 0.3" Birmingham, AL - 4.1" / 0.9" Chattanooga, TN - 3.1" / 0.3" Crossville, TN - 4.5" / 0.3" Knoxville, TN - 6.7" / 2.1" Bristol, TN - 7.1" / 8.4" Rome, GA - 3.1" / 0.6" Gainesville, GA - 0.9" / 0.0" Asheville, NC - 5.7" / 0.6" Hickory, NC - 5.5" / 0.3" Boone, NC - 10.9" / 5.0" Charlotte, NC - 4.8" Raleigh, NC - 3.9" Atlanta GA, Athens GA, Greenville SC - ZIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If this is trending further south does that mean temps will be further south? Read more, post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL108 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013...WINTRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEYBEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY....A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVEACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEMWILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THEOVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ICE FOR FORM ON ELEVATEDSURFACES AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES ACROSSTHE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING....WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON... http://www.daculaweather.com/national_alerts/4_severe_alert.php?WFO=hun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 And the other really big kicker that hasn't been discussed much at all are the winds. Surface winds, at least here in the mountains, are forecast to be sustained at 15-20, gusting over 35 mph at times Thursday night. Combine this with saturated grounds, heavy wet snow, and you will get some tree toppling. Maybe even some power outages. It's also the wind that will enhance the cold advection, and thus the frontogenetical forcing, for the deformation band across NC and VA. With the EURO trending 50-80 miles south in the position of the surface low (NAM has it over ATL, EURO south of that a bit), and with the ULL trending stronger in most models, I think this may be shaping up to be a blockbuster event for North Carolina and Virginia. This is also our first big snow event since 2011, so folks should be paying attention to their local forecasts. The lack of any advisories east of the mountains is disturbing. I hope the afternoon packages address this. Yesterday I said 2-4" for AVL. Today I'm going with 4-6" downtown, 1-3" at the airport, and 4-8" in surrounding counties north and west. Also, counties NE of AVL will see 4-8" as well. Honestly, I am concerned these may be too conservative given the latest model consensus, but I am accounting for some slushy "foundation" on surfaces before the accumulations really set in. However, I do anticipate some really impressive snowfall rates which may overcome surface and ground temps. It's not easy to do, but it can be done... Ya good post for the mountains. As seen on the news there has been some minor flooding and lots of rain. If we get clobbered with heavy wet snow and then sustained high winds we could be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That is a great point about the winds. Heavy wet snow is one thing but and really any added winds can bring trees down fast! I also assume wsw, and wwa should go in a few hours. Thanks for the thoughts! Winter storm Watch has already been issued for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNINGTHROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.• LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTHCAROLINA.• HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.• TIMING...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAYAFTERNOON.• ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. LOCALLYHIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONSALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ya good post for the mountains. As seen on the news there has been some minor flooding and lots of rain. If we get clobbered with heavy wet snow and then sustained high winds we could be in trouble. What do you think for us here in East Central MS???? Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS110 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013MSZ025>033-035>052-170315-/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0002.130117T0600Z-130117T1500Z/LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREENWOOD...GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...BELZONI...ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN110 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAYMORNING.* TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING OVER THE WATCH AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING THURSDAY.* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED.* OTHER IMPACTS: SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WHILE WIDESPREAD TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED DUE TO ALREADY WET ROADS...IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES...A SLUSH COULD DEVELOP ON LOCAL BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHICH COULD MAKE DRIVING ACROSS THEM TREACHEROUS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 myfox8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Nice Watches going up everywhere in AL, NC, and TN. Looks like a lot of people are going to get in on the action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hmm.....what's that shadowy area running from Galax down towards Asheville?? Dude, stop beating that horse. It's possible yes. But DT certainly has the right to provide his forecast as well. This is why I shut up and read instead of just posting commentary designed to stir the pot. Add to the discussion with facts or research or models and provide support for your forecasts. That's all Burger was asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 These forecasts seem to be way below what the models are showing. Do people just not trust the models or is there something else at play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 FWIW, Henry Margusity's map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 These forecasts seem to be way below what the models are showing. Do people just not trust the models or is there something else at play? Just what I was thinking Brick. Some of these totals may go up later this evening though as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 These forecasts seem to be way below what the models are showing. Do people just not trust the models or is there something else at play? News stations are always conservative. They'll bump it up once it's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 These forecasts seem to be way below what the models are showing. Do people just not trust the models or is there something else at play? I'd imagine they're tempering the model output with climatology + warm soil temps. Just because the QPF shows 6" (at whatever ratio the model uses) doesn't mean 6" will actually accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WxSouth says, outside of the mountains, Triad and Southside Virginia are the sweet spot: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just what I was thinking Brick. Some of these totals may go up later this evening though as we get closer to the event. Brick doesn't deserve an answer and I'm probably speculating here but what is the diff. between telling people 2 inches right now? You can always go up. 2 inches is enough to not get everyone in a panic and also not get egg on your face when it doesn't go that way. This is a very delicate line all of us are riding outside of the mountains. Someone is going to cash in while others get left holding the bag. Just the way it is with these systems. So why should anyone in the public go out on a limb? Come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just what I was thinking Brick. Some of these totals may go up later this evening though as we get closer to the event. TV mets, at least in my area, and I'm assuming in most other areas of the SE are going to play any snow fcst VERY conservatively. It's easy to play catch up but once you say "its going to snow 6" " then its hard to take that back. Your best bet is to totally ignore their on air forecast and stay right here. You may want to look up the different mets on Facebook or Twitter where they can be a little more candid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Brick doesn't deserve an answer and I'm probably speculating here but what is the diff. between telling people 2 inches right now? You can always go up. 2 inches is enough to not get everyone in a panic and also not get egg on your face when it doesn't go that way. This is a very delicate line all of us are riding outside of the mountains. Someone is going to cash in while others get left holding the bag. Just the way it is with these systems. So why should anyone in the public go out on a limb? Come on. That is what I was thinking but just wanted someone else to say it to clarify things. It's better to be conservative to the public than to be blamed for crying wolf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Quick question for Powerstroke or those in the know regarding brining of roads. With all the rain pre-event that process is pretty pointless, correct? If so, I would imagine the heavier band scenario being forecasted could play a much greater role across the piedmont / foothills and into VA for many if the roads aren't pre-treated. No one except us is discussing this event for Friday rush hour. This will be a shocker for most I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Brick doesn't deserve an answer and I'm probably speculating here but what is the diff. between telling people 2 inches right now? You can always go up. 2 inches is enough to not get everyone in a panic and also not get egg on your face when it doesn't go that way. This is a very delicate line all of us are riding outside of the mountains. Someone is going to cash in while others get left holding the bag. Just the way it is with these systems. So why should anyone in the public go out on a limb? Come on. Ya true it does not take much to get people in a panic these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Lol this has Boone at <1" I'm always amused at some news outlets being so close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Brick doesn't deserve an answer and I'm probably speculating here but what is the diff. between telling people 2 inches right now? You can always go up. 2 inches is enough to not get everyone in a panic and also not get egg on your face when it doesn't go that way. This is a very delicate line all of us are riding outside of the mountains. Someone is going to cash in while others get left holding the bag. Just the way it is with these systems. So why should anyone in the public go out on a limb? Come on. Plus, all these pretty snowfall maps rarely ever verify like they show. People need to understand that a model's snowfall map posted on a weather board, while fun to talk about, is not the same as an official prediction by a professional forecaster. Good gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It would be foolish for TV stations to call for specific amounts before the advisories/watches are issued. They would have to back track and likely come into a consensus with those...seeing how they display those on their page and or through email. Patience is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Winter storm watches now posted for central VA including Richmond for 2-4 inches of snow URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 235 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 VAZ060-065>071-079-080-170600- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.130117T2200Z-130118T0600Z/ PRINCE EDWARD-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN- CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARMVILLE...SOUTH HILL...CREWE... COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...LAWRENCEVILLE 235 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * AREAS AFFECTED: THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THROUGH RICHMOND. * HAZARDS: SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. * TIMING: SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON GRASSY AREAS. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 18z NAM rolling...already stronger but only out to 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 wow, Wakefield is bullish, going with a full-fledge WSWatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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