deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Some time between W GA and E NC it does open. You know what, your right...My WSI maps are 30m instead of 60m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Could be the ajax code for new replies. What browser are you using? I've had issues with the ajax in IE. This also explains the credit card problem with some people, I believe. I hadn't had the problem but I use Chrome for most everything. My main page on my site uses AJAX but I haven't had any trouble with any browser using that. My advice to people that ask me is to avoid IE anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I hadn't had the problem but I use Chrome for most everything. My main page on my site uses AJAX but I haven't had any trouble with any browser using that. My advice to people that ask me is to avoid IE anything. Agreed. No issues with Firefox either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 With temps like these, it's hard to see much of anything coming out of this for a lot of people. But the cold air is now crossing the border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 With temps like these, it's hard to see much of anything coming out of this for a lot of people. But the cold air is now crossing the border... Look back at the 3/1/09 event, ATL was 51 at around 2am, probably still mid 40s mid AM and was 32 and snowing in the afternoon...it can happen behind these closed lows though it will happen somewhere else this time most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z Euro text output shows TYS and TRI right on the border. TYS with 0.43 falling right at freezing, TRI 0.66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That temperature graphic is off. I am 13 miles SSE of CLT and I am at 45.7F and steady for hours now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 9-12 is not happening DT...when models consistently show some sort of snow shadow in the foothills...they are probably right. By all means give your reasons why. Why are the models showing this shadow? Why are the models right in showing this shadow? Go ahead we're waiting for your answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I hadn't had the problem but I use Chrome for most everything. My main page on my site uses AJAX but I haven't had any trouble with any browser using that. My advice to people that ask me is to avoid IE anything. I wish I could kill it but 23% of our traffic are using IE. I have to accommodate for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Look back at the 3/1/09 event, ATL was 51 at around 2am, probably still mid 40s mid AM and was 32 and snowing in the afternoon...it can happen behind these closed lows though it will happen somewhere else this time most likely. Oh... I know it can happen, especially with a decent ULL but I don't have a lot of confidence at this point it will work for us here. Fingers crossed though... I have been watching the SPC Meso-analysis map and the ULL is trending a little further south right now and maybe what some of the models are beginning to pick up on. I'm hanging in there! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I wish I could kill it but 23% of our traffic are using IE. I have to accommodate for it. I know... let people know that studies show that people that use Chrome are more intelligent than people that use IE. Maybe that will make them switch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hope is does trend further south if it does, does that mean temps will come down further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Latest from WxSouth. Here's the Rapid Refresh Model for 18 hours from now...valid around 6 AM Thursday. You can see the upper low in the deep south beginning to tilt toward neutral tilt as it rolls east from Texas, meanwhile the Northern stream in the Great Lakes is aiming southeastward. This will work in tandem across the upper low in the South to prevent it from rolling up the East Coast. Meanwhile by tomorrow night... as this upper low fights to remain in tact (I lean toward NAM on holding it in tact thru Carolinas...aka, bowling ball) the upper low will develop an extremely strong deformation axis on its northwest shield where the colder air works in simultaneously.Areas in eastern TN, western NC and much of central and southern Virginia will see snowfall rates unlike what is normally seen. This is because of how the upper low pivots around the longwave trough in the East, squarely aiming its snowguns toward the Southern Apps and across much of NC and Virginia as the night wears on. The entire process will happen quickly around dark for those areas...One minute its raining, then suddenly large wet snowflakes are falling...lots of them. Many folks will be simply astonished at how quickly large snowflakes can stick to the trees and power lines in a situation like this...the rates will be incredible for a few a few short hours there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This is from RAH. Now that is some dynamic cooling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 By all means give your reasons why. Why are the models showing this shadow? Why are the models right in showing this shadow? Go ahead we're waiting for your answer. I am asking myself that same question. Are the models right? Very likely they are when they do this...I have seen it in the past. Snowfall greater east or west of the foothills. Still a major event nearby don't get me wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 By all means give your reasons why. Why are the models showing this shadow? Why are the models right in showing this shadow? Go ahead we're waiting for your answer. Could it be that the models are picking up on some downsloping? with the circulation I would think that the winds would be coming in from the NW for some areas of the foothills. This may be the reason some models are showing less snowfall for those areas. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 With temps like these, it's hard to see much of anything coming out of this for a lot of people. But the cold air is now crossing the border... That cold air in Canada has nothing to do with this system thankfully or it wouldn't get here in here in time. The ULL will bring it's own cold pool with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That cold air in Canada has nothing to do with this system thankfully or it wouldn't get here in here in time. The ULL will bring it's own cold pool with it. No, I know. I was just admiring the beauty of -25ºF temperatures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Could it be that the models are picking up on some downsloping? with the circulation I would think that the winds would be coming in from the NW for some areas of the foothills. This may be the reason some models are showing less snowfall for those areas. Just my two cents. Robert said he didn't buy it...that sounds plausible but you would think with such heavy QPF that wouldn't be that much of a factor. The bigger point was that Wilkes doesn't know and offered no reasons as to why DT might be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That cold air in Canada has nothing to do with this system thankfully or it wouldn't get here in here in time. The ULL will bring it's own cold pool with it. As evidenced by the pool of 850mb temps of -6 (or lower) across central TX this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 As evidenced by the pool of 850mb temps of -6 (or lower) across central TX this morning... Yes, seeing -4 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 700 mb is -16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 One thing that is nice, is that all models get it below freezing for several hours and Friday morning could be slippery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 One thing that is nice, is that all models get it below freezing for several hours and Friday morning could be slippery. And the other really big kicker that hasn't been discussed much at all are the winds. Surface winds, at least here in the mountains, are forecast to be sustained at 15-20, gusting over 35 mph at times Thursday night. Combine this with saturated grounds, heavy wet snow, and you will get some tree toppling. Maybe even some power outages. It's also the wind that will enhance the cold advection, and thus the frontogenetical forcing, for the deformation band across NC and VA. With the EURO trending 50-80 miles south in the position of the surface low (NAM has it over ATL, EURO south of that a bit), and with the ULL trending stronger in most models, I think this may be shaping up to be a blockbuster event for North Carolina and Virginia. This is also our first big snow event since 2011, so folks should be paying attention to their local forecasts. The lack of any advisories east of the mountains is disturbing. I hope the afternoon packages address this. Yesterday I said 2-4" for AVL. Today I'm going with 4-6" downtown, 1-3" at the airport, and 4-8" in surrounding counties north and west. Also, counties NE of AVL will see 4-8" as well. Honestly, I am concerned these may be too conservative given the latest model consensus, but I am accounting for some slushy "foundation" on surfaces before the accumulations really set in. However, I do anticipate some really impressive snowfall rates which may overcome surface and ground temps. It's not easy to do, but it can be done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That is a great point about the winds. Heavy wet snow is one thing but and really any added winds can bring trees down fast! I also assume wsw, and wwa should go in a few hours. Thanks for the thoughts! And the other really big kicker that hasn't been discussed much at all are the winds. Surface winds, at least here in the mountains, are forecast to be sustained at 15-20, gusting over 35 mph at times Thursday night. Combine this with saturated grounds, heavy wet snow, and you will get some tree toppling. Maybe even some power outages. It's also the wind that will enhance the cold advection, and thus the frontogenetical forcing, for the deformation band across NC and VA. With the EURO trending 50-80 miles south in the position of the surface low (NAM has it over ATL, EURO south of that a bit), and with the ULL trending stronger in most models, I think this may be shaping up to be a blockbuster event for North Carolina and Virginia. This is also our first big snow event since 2011, so folks should be paying attention to their local forecasts. The lack of any advisories east of the mountains is disturbing. I hope the afternoon packages address this. Yesterday I said 2-4" for AVL. Today I'm going with 4-6" downtown, 1-3" at the airport, and 4-8" in surrounding counties north and west. Also, counties NE of AVL will see 4-8" as well. Honestly, I am concerned these may be too conservative given the latest model consensus, but I am accounting for some slushy "foundation" on surfaces before the accumulations really set in. However, I do anticipate some really impressive snowfall rates which may overcome surface and ground temps. It's not easy to do, but it can be done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I am asking myself that same question. Are the models right? Very likely they are when they do this...I have seen it in the past. Snowfall greater east or west of the foothills. Still a major event nearby don't get me wrong. You also said this likely would not be a high qpf event because high qpf systems don't normally follow one another. You also quoted your past experience with that. Never understood the reasoning there other than simply doubting the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 And the other really big kicker that hasn't been discussed much at all are the winds. Surface winds, at least here in the mountains, are forecast to be sustained at 15-20, gusting over 35 mph at times Thursday night. Combine this with saturated grounds, heavy wet snow, and you will get some tree toppling. Maybe even some power outages. It's also the wind that will enhance the cold advection, and thus the frontogenetical forcing, for the deformation band across NC and VA. With the EURO trending 50-80 miles south in the position of the surface low (NAM has it over ATL, EURO south of that a bit), and with the ULL trending stronger in most models, I think this may be shaping up to be a blockbuster event for North Carolina and Virginia. This is also our first big snow event since 2011, so folks should be paying attention to their local forecasts. The lack of any advisories east of the mountains is disturbing. I hope the afternoon packages address this. Yesterday I said 2-4" for AVL. Today I'm going with 4-6" downtown, 1-3" at the airport, and 4-8" in surrounding counties north and west. Also, counties NE of AVL will see 4-8" as well. Honestly, I am concerned these may be too conservative given the latest model consensus, but I am accounting for some slushy "foundation" on surfaces before the accumulations really set in. However, I do anticipate some really impressive snowfall rates which may overcome surface and ground temps. It's not easy to do, but it can be done... Yes, the local media here and RAH have been playing this very conservatively, but it seems they are talking more about the potential this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That temperature graphic is off. I am 13 miles SSE of CLT and I am at 45.7F and steady for hours now! Same here. I haven't climbed above 43 in the past 36 + hours and with the low ceilings/drizzle surely wont be today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Folks, The 12Z Euro appears to be very close to giving at least a snow/rain mix in the Atlanta/Athens areas and a good bit closer than was the 0Z Euro due to a colder/stronger upper level low. It will be interesting to see if the colder trend continues on tonight's 0Z Euro. As it stands now, the 12Z Euro gives the Atlanta/Athens areas 0.25-0.50" of QPF (heaviest on northsides) AFTER the surface low passes and 850's quickly crash. On this run, the 850's actually do get to just below 0C during a portion of the interval 1-7 PM tomorrow. They didn't do that on the 0Z Euro. My guess is that there will, indeed, be a rain/snow (possibly also some IP) mix 3-7 PM on Thursday afternoon/evening (based on the 12Z Euro) and possibly a period of almost pure IP/snow during 4-7 PM in heavier precip. I don't expect any accumulation except possibly on some elevated surfaces like bushes and maybe even on some grass. IF tonight's 0Z Euro continues the colder trend, then things could get even more interesting for these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 And the other really big kicker that hasn't been discussed much at all are the winds. Surface winds, at least here in the mountains, are forecast to be sustained at 15-20, gusting over 35 mph at times Thursday night. Combine this with saturated grounds, heavy wet snow, and you will get some tree toppling. Maybe even some power outages. It's also the wind that will enhance the cold advection, and thus the frontogenetical forcing, for the deformation band across NC and VA. With the EURO trending 50-80 miles south in the position of the surface low (NAM has it over ATL, EURO south of that a bit), and with the ULL trending stronger in most models, I think this may be shaping up to be a blockbuster event for North Carolina and Virginia. This is also our first big snow event since 2011, so folks should be paying attention to their local forecasts. The lack of any advisories east of the mountains is disturbing. I hope the afternoon packages address this. Yesterday I said 2-4" for AVL. Today I'm going with 4-6" downtown, 1-3" at the airport, and 4-8" in surrounding counties north and west. Also, counties NE of AVL will see 4-8" as well. Honestly, I am concerned these may be too conservative given the latest model consensus, but I am accounting for some slushy "foundation" on surfaces before the accumulations really set in. However, I do anticipate some really impressive snowfall rates which may overcome surface and ground temps. It's not easy to do, but it can be done... I was looking through some MOS products and noticed the fcsted winds and thought...oh no!! This might do a number on a lot of trees, which in turn will knock out power to many! I think many forecasters are quite gun shy right now, including myself. This does has the chance to be quite the snowstorm and YES, I've seen heavy snowfall overcome warm roads/yards. It turns into a slushy mess and with temps expected to bottom out in the upper 20s, once the storm exits out to sea, black ice is going to be a HUGE problem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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