AirNelson39 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 tHere is DT's call map. Looks pretty bullish; then again, when is he not? Just an awful awful map, no way no how is Caldwell county getting 9-12" MAYBE 1-3" that is just one example but geez how do people listen to or believe this guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Sure thing buddy, but I think the models are trolling us at this point LMAO! That's like DGEX level trolling right there. Enjoy your 27 inches! Edit: Just noticed that Iowa State upped the ratios to 30:1 for some strange reason. Never seen that before. Obviously that gram is silly. Focus on the Cobb. Thank you. I realize this is pure fantasy, but I needed a good laugh this morning. 30:1 ratios? Yeah right. That can be a stretch even during arctic-blast NW flow events. tnnut is spot on with his concerns. The ground is incredibly saturated (which, by the way, there is still a batch of rain heading this way), and very little drying will occur by tomorrow. Even with light wind, this setup spells major trouble for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just an awful awful map, no way no how is Caldwell county getting 9-12" MAYBE 1-3" that is just one example but geez how do people listen to or believe this guy? A lot of the model runs indicate otherwise. I'm not saying he's right but you can't say he's wrong when the event hasn't even occurred. Personally, he think his prediction is a touch high, but it's just another mets opinion and probably shouldn't be discounted completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm wondering how much snow will fall east of say Asheville? Even the nam has the 700 low decaying rapidly after 36 hours. A lot of people will need the rates to cool the column and once the dynamics are gone that won't happen. Mets, any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like the CMC joins the party.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 yes it does nice litttle bubble of warm air N.Foothills with rain over my house! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z GFS pretty much confirms the minimal snow threat for far NE GA. By 6z skies have totally cleared out which should allow temps to drop into the 20s. I think the biggest threat across parts of N GA will be black ice. Yeah..us in GA are in the bone zone. Best shot is probably NW GA, may take a a jaunt up I-75 before work tomorrow afternoon. If I was off I would be up in NC but no such luck. Congrats to those who do get nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z Canadian RGEM confirms the NE GA shaft. WNC still looks good though. In fact the 12z RGEM outside the mountains of WNC looks pretty bleak with just a small glancing blow to north central NC outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z GFS pretty much confirms the minimal snow threat for far NE GA. By 6z skies have totally cleared out which should allow temps to drop into the 20s. I think the biggest threat across parts of N GA will be black ice. Yeah..us in GA are in the bone zone. Best shot is probably NW GA, may take a a jaunt up I-75 before work tomorrow afternoon. If I was off I would be up in NC but no such luck. Congrats to those who do get nailed. I think AVL might be a good spot(which is good, because i'm headed that way sunday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Whats up folks? Long time. Anyway heared about a pending snow storm and from what I see this could be a nice event for some folks. Especially this area.... nam is insisting on atleast a half foot or more for here. But I'll be glad when the sun comes out since monday had 1.6" of rain and the temp is stuck at 41. Dont look like the CAD is going to give up today. Anyway dont have alot of time so go to go, stay safe and enjoy the snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 yes it does nice litttle bubble of warm air N.Foothills with rain over my house! lol But that is a nice change for this model. I would think you would have more cold air to work with (model may not correctly understand geography of your area). Puts RDU right in the middle of the orange (sleet/mix). I'll take it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think AVL might be a good spot(which is good, because i'm headed that way sunday) I'm more interested in what that area gets also. I'm supposed to go to Sylva on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm more interested in what that area gets also. I'm supposed to go to Sylva on Friday morning. Hey you should see some good snow. Balsam just outside of Sylva is gonna get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I have not compared the 12z gfs to the 12z euro but the euro doesn't appear to be as far north. The euro also doesn't show as much qpf as the nam or gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On my phone but euro looks good to me. Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Keeps the 5h energy strong into SC... Just on the sfc looks really good to me for mby, just IMHO Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Keeps the 5h energy strong into SC... Just on the sfc looks really good to me for mby, just IMHO Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 ULL is stronger, the precip is heavier compared to 0z Euro run.. Also notice the HP over the NE is stronger, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wasn't there a tendency in prior years for winter event models to drift north the last few days prior to an event and then reverse course in the last few hours before it began? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here's Euro for my area. THU 18Z 17-JAN 3.1 1.3 1020 96 99 0.66 566 550 FRI 00Z 18-JAN 1.5 -0.7 1020 97 100 0.88 561 545 FRI 06Z 18-JAN 0.4 -1.5 1024 75 10 0.33 559 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Man I dont know what the deal is, it is like hte 3rd time today i posted and then hit submit and the post doesnt show. I had written out a long euro description oh well. I dont have the heart to do it again, but literall vendor snowfall output from ECMWF shows: 8-12 southern mnts of Va, 4-8 NE TN, southern Va, northern half of NC. Include TRI, HKY, Boone, INT, AVL, GSO, RDU, RWI, DAN, near RIC 2-4 central northern VA, eastern TN, includes northern burbs of CLT, RIC, 1-2 eastern 1/3 of TN, southern foothills/piedmont/sandhills, central/southern coastal plain of NC to NE NC. Also to just south of DC. CLT maybe in this. Gradient between 4-8 area and 1-2 in NC is very narrow, sharp gradient. Much of Ga/SC get no snow this run. Again this is just literal output from the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 So, sounds like a stronger ULL, holding together longer? Was it further north than prior runs? And yes, I've had same problem with posting. Sometimes have to hit post three times before it will go through. Man I dont know what the deal is, it is like hte 3rd time today i posted and then hit submit and the post doesnt show. I had written out a long euro description oh well. I dont have the heart to do it again, but literall vendor snowfall output from ECMWF shows: 8-12 southern mnts of Va, 4-8 NE TN, southern Va, northern half of NC. Include TRI, HKY, Boone, INT, AVL, GSO, RDU, RWI, DAN, near RIC 2-4 central northern VA, eastern TN, includes northern burbs of CLT, RIC, 1-2 eastern 1/3 of TN, southern foothills/piedmont/sandhills, central/southern coastal plain of NC to NE NC. Also to just south of DC. CLT maybe in this. Gradient between 4-8 area and 1-2 in NC is very narrow, sharp gradient. Much of Ga/SC get no snow this run. Again this is just literal output from the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hey you should see some good snow. Balsam just outside of Sylva is gonna get slammed. I bet you are right on that. Balsam gap at 3,300 ft should get dumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 So, sounds like a stronger ULL, holding together longer? Was it further north than prior runs? And yes, I've had same problem with posting. Sometimes have to hit post three times before it will go through. Not so much further north, just slower and a bit stronger. Still closed low over north Georgia, opens up as it moves across NC, but stronger than 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looking at the three-hour panels on Wundermap, it looks like some snow is at least possible in the upstate from 36 to 39 hours as 850s crash and there's still some precip left in the area. Obviously it's kind of a crapshoot with limited information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 9-12 is not happening DT...when models consistently show some sort of snow shadow in the foothills...they are probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 And yes, I've had same problem with posting. Sometimes have to hit post three times before it will go through. Could be the ajax code for new replies. What browser are you using? I've had issues with the ajax in IE. This also explains the credit card problem with some people, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 EURO actually looked a smidge further south with the closed low coming across the southeast. Doesn't open until the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 EURO actually looked a smidge further south with the closed low coming across the southeast. Doesn't open until the Carolinas Some time between W GA and E NC it does open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 ...BRIEF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OFCENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING......BLACK ICE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIATHURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY.AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD AMPLEGULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSSNORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHESINTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A DEEP COLD AIR MASS WILLBEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITHTEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR A SNOW/SLEETMIX ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING. DESPITE WARM GROUNDS FROM RECENT UNSEASONABLY WARMTEMPERATURES... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHGEORGIA MOUNTAINS... DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.THE GREATER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE HIGHERELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE.HOWEVER... IF THE SNOW RATES GET ENHANCED ENOUGH BY THE STRONG UPPERLOW TRAVERSING THE STATE... SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALFINCH OR LESS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA GENERALLYNORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND THE I-85 CORRIDOREAST OF ATLANTA...AND THIS WOULD BE MAINLY OVER ELEVATED AND GRASSYSURFACES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes - IE. It's odd, I will hit post, I will get the flashing bars at the top -- sometimes it will post, other times it will just save my post and the "post" button will reappear and I try again. Could be the ajax code for new replies. What browser are you using? I've had issues with the ajax in IE. This also explains the credit card problem with some people, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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