GreensboroWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here's where I get my Hi-Res output http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4SE_12z/comploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Gotta love the NAM. 700mb low situated right where I want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Quick question that maybe someone could answer. When looking at the text data in 3 hour increments (i.e. 33, 36, 39, etc.) Is the text printout for precip at the specific hour for that hour and the two previous, or the two after (i.e. 34,35, 36 or 36,37,38)? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here's where I get my Hi-Res output http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4SE_12z/comploop.html Just impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here's where I get my Hi-Res output http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4SE_12z/comploop.html Awesome, thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 09z sref just wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WRF NAM gives CLT points west 2 - 4 with higher amounts in them mountains...small area of 3-6 around Mooresville and 3-6 for RDU east in central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Meanwhile here comers the GFS and the low is stronger and further north through 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Listen up folks...................before posting here read the pinned thread on posting etiquette, then re-read it several times until you completely understand. Consider this a warning to everyone. My trigger finger is running on a short fuse and time outs/warnings will be issued without notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z GFS a bit faster than 6z GFS which was a bit faster than 12z NAM -- 12z NAM has 500 low on the western side of Alabama, 12z GFS on the eastern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS and NAM are looking pretty similar....It looks like the rain/snow shield will stay in FULL effect over mid GA! weeeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z gfs holds...Even though I'm not expecting a lot from this storm, it should be real interesting to see how it plays out. I would love to be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Someone in WNC is going to see a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 All the wow's and boom's don't do crap for me here in Dahlonega. Congrats to WNC and other parts of TN and NC. 12z NAM tells me to enjoy my cold rain. 0z Friday still too warm at the surface for snow thanks to that nice warm nose wrapping north of the low. It's frustrating getting the 500mb low and the 700mb south of me which where you want to be with ULL's and the warm air is wrapping too much on the north side. Date: 36 hour Eta valid 0Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: 34.59,-83.93Latitude: 34.59Longitude: -83.93-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 91 1 950 508 SFC 945 551 6.0 4.7 91 1.3 5.3 5 10 283.7 284.6 281.1 299.4 5.65 3 900 947 1.6 1.6 100 0.0 1.6 14 15 283.1 284.0 279.7 296.4 4.76 4 850 1406 -0.7 -0.8 100 0.0 -0.7 36 23 285.4 286.1 280.2 297.4 4.26 5 800 1888 -2.6 -2.7 99 0.1 -2.6 46 28 288.4 289.1 281.2 299.7 3.93 6 750 2398 -4.8 -4.9 99 0.2 -4.8 63 25 291.4 292.0 282.1 301.7 3.53 7 700 2937 -7.6 -8.1 96 0.5 -7.8 46 17 294.0 294.5 282.5 302.9 2.96 8 650 3514 -8.4 -8.8 97 0.5 -8.5 19 24 299.5 300.1 284.8 308.7 3.02 9 600 4131 -12.2 -13.4 90 1.2 -12.6 356 33 302.0 302.5 285.0 309.1 2.26 10 550 4789 -17.7 -21.6 71 3.9 -18.6 347 32 303.1 303.3 284.2 307.1 1.23 11 500 5495 -22.2 -32.2 40 10.0 -23.8 340 22 305.9 306.0 284.4 307.7 0.51 12 450 6264 -24.9 -48.3 9 23.4 -27.1 311 16 312.0 312.0 286.2 312.4 0.11 13 400 7115 -27.6 -62.9 2 35.3 -29.7 271 18 319.1 319.1 288.5 319.2 0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS significantly weaker with upper level features. At 36 hours, 850 temps do not crash behind the low down into N GA/N ALA like they did on 6z run and not at all like 12z NAM. Precip also moving out more quickly than 6z GFS and much more so than 12z NAM. Much more a of a cold chasing moisture run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like there will be some rain/snow showers that roll through northern bama and that scoots east into NGA. WNC is going to get smashed! looks like we are going to see snow over all of NC. I think the Escarpment of SC *higher terrain into northern SC* will do very well as well. Meanwhile down here in the desert, we look to get shafted again with barely enough rain to measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS significantly weaker with upper level features. At 36 hours, 850 temps do not crash behind the low down into N GA/N ALA like they did on 6z run and not at all like 12z NAM. Precip also moving out more quickly than 6z GFS and much more so than 12z NAM. Much more a of a cold chasing moisture run. Yep it's a lot quicker....but you gotta think now the NAM and SREF have a better handle. SREF has all snow across NC from hours 42 to 48 which is when the heaviest precip is making it's way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 All the wow's and boom's don't do crap for me here in Dahlonega. Congrats to WNC and other parts of TN and NC. 12z NAM tells me to enjoy my cold rain. 0z Friday still too warm at the surface for snow thanks to that nice warm nose wrapping north of the low. It's frustrating getting the 500mb low and the 700mb south of me which where you want to be with ULL's and the warm air is wrapping too much on the north side. Date: 36 hour Eta valid 0Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: 34.59,-83.93Latitude: 34.59Longitude: -83.93-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 91 1 950 508 SFC 945 551 6.0 4.7 91 1.3 5.3 5 10 283.7 284.6 281.1 299.4 5.65 3 900 947 1.6 1.6 100 0.0 1.6 14 15 283.1 284.0 279.7 296.4 4.76 4 850 1406 -0.7 -0.8 100 0.0 -0.7 36 23 285.4 286.1 280.2 297.4 4.26 5 800 1888 -2.6 -2.7 99 0.1 -2.6 46 28 288.4 289.1 281.2 299.7 3.93 6 750 2398 -4.8 -4.9 99 0.2 -4.8 63 25 291.4 292.0 282.1 301.7 3.53 7 700 2937 -7.6 -8.1 96 0.5 -7.8 46 17 294.0 294.5 282.5 302.9 2.96 8 650 3514 -8.4 -8.8 97 0.5 -8.5 19 24 299.5 300.1 284.8 308.7 3.02 9 600 4131 -12.2 -13.4 90 1.2 -12.6 356 33 302.0 302.5 285.0 309.1 2.26 10 550 4789 -17.7 -21.6 71 3.9 -18.6 347 32 303.1 303.3 284.2 307.1 1.23 11 500 5495 -22.2 -32.2 40 10.0 -23.8 340 22 305.9 306.0 284.4 307.7 0.51 12 450 6264 -24.9 -48.3 9 23.4 -27.1 311 16 312.0 312.0 286.2 312.4 0.11 13 400 7115 -27.6 -62.9 2 35.3 -29.7 271 18 319.1 319.1 288.5 319.2 0.02 I'm surprised that you are not colder than this with the dynamics at play here. You are right about where you are in relation to the 500 and 700mb low. 700mb temps of -7.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 At 9z Friday: 12z NAM 6Z GFS 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Inside of 60hrs I like to focus on the NAM and HiRes models vs the GFS. The GFS is not a lot different than the NAM run except a little faster and maybe a touch north. The higher terrain of NW NC/SW VA are going to get plastered. I'm thinking the Triad will hold its own (1-3", possible higher). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For N GA GFS looks warmer than the NAM and the precip makes a quick exit before 0z. Again...congrats WNC, east TN and other parts of NC. Look forward to my 1-2" of additional rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like there will be some rain/snow showers that roll through northern bama and that scoots east into NGA. WNC is going to get smashed! looks like we are going to see snow over all of NC. I think the Escarpment of SC *higher terrain into northern SC* will do very well as well. Meanwhile down here in the desert, we look to get shafted again with barely enough rain to measure. You are no alone Each run lately has trended a little drier, from around 2" a couple days ago to now under 1/2", but I'll take what I can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here is what the RPM is kind of showing... Gets some good snow into WNC...and even central and E NC. Changes over to snow *from rain* over the highlands of SC...Rain/Snow deform band rolls through N AL And somewhat into N GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This is quickly becoming a mostly VA event, trends anymore north NC will be shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Friends in eastern TN, the mountains of east TN, and the mountains of WNC would tend to disagree pack........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 My first call map of the year (sorry only have time to address NC): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 All the wow's and boom's don't do crap for me here in Dahlonega. Congrats to WNC and other parts of TN and NC. 12z NAM tells me to enjoy my cold rain. 0z Friday still too warm at the surface for snow thanks to that nice warm nose wrapping north of the low. It's frustrating getting the 500mb low and the 700mb south of me which where you want to be with ULL's and the warm air is wrapping too much on the north side. Date: 36 hour Eta valid 0Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: 34.59,-83.93Latitude: 34.59Longitude: -83.93-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 91 1 950 508 SFC 945 551 6.0 4.7 91 1.3 5.3 5 10 283.7 284.6 281.1 299.4 5.65 3 900 947 1.6 1.6 100 0.0 1.6 14 15 283.1 284.0 279.7 296.4 4.76 4 850 1406 -0.7 -0.8 100 0.0 -0.7 36 23 285.4 286.1 280.2 297.4 4.26 5 800 1888 -2.6 -2.7 99 0.1 -2.6 46 28 288.4 289.1 281.2 299.7 3.93 6 750 2398 -4.8 -4.9 99 0.2 -4.8 63 25 291.4 292.0 282.1 301.7 3.53 7 700 2937 -7.6 -8.1 96 0.5 -7.8 46 17 294.0 294.5 282.5 302.9 2.96 8 650 3514 -8.4 -8.8 97 0.5 -8.5 19 24 299.5 300.1 284.8 308.7 3.02 9 600 4131 -12.2 -13.4 90 1.2 -12.6 356 33 302.0 302.5 285.0 309.1 2.26 10 550 4789 -17.7 -21.6 71 3.9 -18.6 347 32 303.1 303.3 284.2 307.1 1.23 11 500 5495 -22.2 -32.2 40 10.0 -23.8 340 22 305.9 306.0 284.4 307.7 0.51 12 450 6264 -24.9 -48.3 9 23.4 -27.1 311 16 312.0 312.0 286.2 312.4 0.11 13 400 7115 -27.6 -62.9 2 35.3 -29.7 271 18 319.1 319.1 288.5 319.2 0.02 Yeah, it doesn't look good for us at the moment. If this can come in during daylight I'm seriously thinking I might chase. At least to maybe Pickens county off 53 where you can get up to 3000 feet pretty easily. I'm starting to have my doubts about that even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This is quickly becoming a mostly VA event, trends anymore north NC will be shutout Looks great for TN. Knoxville is now forecasting accumulating snow, well MHX is anyway. Up to a foot is forecasted for the highest part of the Smokys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looking at the Hi-Res NAM on Allan's site, it looks like the wrap around precip extends pretty far south into NC. How far south do you think token flakes will come with this system? A bit of an IMBY question, but I've seen situations before where SE NC gets some leftover moisture the morning after these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z GFS pretty much confirms the minimal snow threat for far NE GA. By 6z skies have totally cleared out which should allow temps to drop into the 20s. I think the biggest threat across parts of N GA will be black ice. Date: 36 hour AVN valid 0Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: 34.59,-83.93Latitude: 34.59Longitude: -83.93-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 138 SFC 959 480 2.9 1.6 91 1.3 2.3 336 13 279.3 280.1 277.5 291.7 4.48 2 950 555 2.3 0.6 89 1.7 1.5 339 17 279.5 280.2 277.2 291.1 4.19 3 900 990 0.4 -2.1 83 2.5 -0.6 356 32 282.0 282.6 277.7 292.2 3.64 4 850 1450 1.4 -3.2 71 4.6 -0.5 10 44 287.6 288.3 280.4 297.9 3.55 5 800 1936 -1.3 -5.2 74 3.9 -2.9 12 46 289.8 290.3 281.0 299.2 3.23 6 750 2448 -3.1 -6.1 79 3.1 -4.3 8 43 293.2 293.8 282.5 302.8 3.22 7 700 2993 -4.9 -6.9 86 2.0 -5.7 8 33 297.1 297.7 284.1 306.9 3.25 8 650 3573 -8.0 -9.4 90 1.4 -8.5 12 24 299.9 300.5 284.9 308.8 2.89 9 600 4191 -11.8 -12.5 95 0.7 -12.1 21 16 302.4 302.9 285.3 310.0 2.43 10 550 4851 -16.4 -16.8 97 0.4 -16.6 8 9 304.6 304.9 285.5 310.5 1.86 11 500 5561 -21.1 -21.5 96 0.5 -21.2 312 29 307.3 307.6 285.9 311.8 1.37 12 450 6330 -26.9 -27.7 94 0.7 -27.1 310 47 309.4 309.5 286.1 312.3 0.88 13 400 7172 -30.2 -39.7 39 9.5 -31.3 303 57 315.7 315.8 287.7 316.8 0.30 14 350 8120 -31.4 -56.8 6 25.3 -33.1 294 70 326.3 326.4 290.7 326.5 0.05 15 300 9199 -36.8 -63.3 5 26.5 -38.0 280 75 333.5 333.5 292.7 333.6 0.03 16 250 10441 -44.2 -67.8 6 23.6 -44.9 266 77 340.3 340.3 294.4 340.4 0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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