Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Suppression for us down in the SE is when the PV is nearer to SE Canada or the NE. With the SE ridge still around (though on its way out) we will still have temp issues.Yeah, it's just when we're this deep into winter and the PV is close enough to suppress, we're usually colder. But yeah, the SE ridge is tough.... It's actually pretty amazing that the compression between the PV and the SE ridge might not be strong enough to prevent the system from strengthening or holding strong as it moves east, but the system would potentially still remained suppressed and we're all still warm. Just seems like a fairly odd setup. It'll be interesting to see how it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yeah, it's just when we're this deep into winter and the PV is close enough to suppress, we're colder. But yeah, the SE ridge is tough.... It's actually pretty amazing that the compression between the PV and the SE ridge might not be strong enough to allow this system to hold it's strength as it moves east, but the system would potentially still remained suppressed and we're all still warm. Just seems like a fairly odd setup. It'll be interesting to see how it works out. When the 6z NAM take a perfect track and its still to warm, you know it's going to be a tough winter. From GaWx said it looks like the beginning if February the weeklies have a setup that looks promising. Good news, it's less than 3 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 03z sref. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 When the 6z NAM take a perfect track and its still to warm, you know it's going to be a tough winter. From GaWx said it looks like the beginning if February the weeklies have a setup that looks promising. Good news, it's less than 3 weeks away. Maybe I'm just being a weenie but I think that assumes that the precip will not overpower the column and cool it enough to make it a dynamically driven snow storm. It certain looks like it's going to be an all or nothing event for someone that's for sure. Just FYI NAM SV snow maps did have very light accumulations around CLT and points just E,N,S,W . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 When the 6z NAM take a perfect track and its still to warm, you know it's going to be a tough winter. From GaWx said it looks like the beginning if February the weeklies have a setup that looks promising. Good news, it's less than 3 weeks away.yea its always only three weeks away and then nothing comes of it when we get close. what a bummer. I live in the mtns. and temps look cold enough for Thursday night for all snow but unless the storm trends a little to the north the mtns won't have any moisture to make snow, GO FIGURE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'd have to see the maps to believe it. No offense. HPC thinks the NAM has some merit, too. TYS is quite a distance from Charlotte. I'd be very surprised if this solution pans out, but it's neat to look at. 6 inches or so around the Big South Fork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 If the NAM hadn't moved the heaviest axis of snow from Memphis to Nashville to Johnson City in the last three runs - I might believe it a little bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'd be very surprised if this solution pans out, but it's neat to look at. 6 inches or so around the Big South Fork. Allan's maps are better for snowfall...twisterdata needs to be retired for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I will say that the 0z euro did hold the low closed much longer than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 HPC is certainly on board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 NAM is rolling... At 36, it's just closing off near Dallas, which is later than 0Z. That's all the PBP I'm doing. Burger, go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 NAM is rolling... At 36, it's just closing off near Dallas, which is later than 0Z. That's all the PBP I'm doing. Burger, go. Vort looks stronger too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Vort looks stronger too Looks a little more strung out, a little more north, and a little more positively tilted at 42 vs the 0Z 54. I hate doing these compares! Burger, where are you??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 NAM looks solidly like a lousy rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks very similar to its previous run to me.................54 should see a precip explosion. we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 NAM looks solidly like a lousy rain event. I'll take any rain that falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 NAM looks solidly like a lousy rain event.Cold rain that is :-)Well for elevation it's snow, I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 @ 54 hours, there's a two-contour closed 500 mb low centered west of Atlanta. Lots of rain ahead of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Not an expert but this run looks good for the Mnts of WNC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 NAM looks solidly like a lousy rain event. Looks decent for higher elevations Thursday evening but outside the mountains sfc temps don't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Not an expert but this run looks good for the Mnts of WNC? Yeah, with that path, the mountains could do rather good. Lots of warm advection ahead of the low in NC.....waiting to see the rest of the run, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Don I agree this could be a nice little event for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 At hr 63 there is a good bit of moisture over CLT...850's look good but 2m temps don't. Still might be a snow profile though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Well, the precip explosion part was correct..............nice closed system and negative tilt, but this run is considerably warmer. Is that just a hiccup? Time will tell. Track and intensity is pretty consistent with the last run, although the axis of heavier precip has been shunted east (again), but not as much as the last several NAM runs. Perhaps it's beginning to hone in on quite a bit of precip for the southern apps and western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Like what I see out to 60 though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 850s crash at 66. I'm sure the column below that is warm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Low stays closed through hour 66. Centered near Wilmington, at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack83 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks very similar to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 We've had enough rain lately. No thanks. Worst post of the year nominee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Like what I see out to 60 though... Me to steve the heaviest part is right were I live in Haywwod county but still a ways to go with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.