January 17th-18th Winter Storm Discussion

[tnweathernut]

I am really concerned about east TN.  Even if it doesn't switch to snow and accumulate, that is a TON of precip over an already way beyond too saturated ground!  If there is a 8-12 inch snow in the mountains (or more) this will bring limbs and trees down into the rivers. 

 

IMO this will be a life threatening situation for some.

[RaleighWx]

Hour 45

[Met1985]

Thanks Allen! Wow this thing is trending great for the mountains!

[burgertime]

We gotta keep this trend going. Would be interested in seeing how it matches up with shorter range modeling. I feel weenish but if the NAM is just off by a little bit with the temp profile those spots on the edge could switch over faster and heavier which puts us in a great spot.

[beanskip]

10 m temps actually a touch warmer this run. At N.C./S.C. line looks like 0C line moved about 50 miles west. Prob. within margin of error, but would love to see low level temps trend colder as well.

[RaleighWx]

[beanskip]

Wow -- this is getting pretty close, if not already there!

 

 

Date: 39 hour Eta valid 3Z FRI 18 JAN 13
Station: KEHO
Latitude:   35.26
Longitude: -81.60
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   126                                                                
SFC  984   256   1.6   0.8  94  0.8   1.3 351  12 276.0 276.7 275.2 287.3  4.12
  2  950   539   0.0  -0.0 100  0.1   0.0   4  27 277.2 277.9 275.7 288.3  4.02
  3  900   971  -0.9  -0.9 100  0.0  -0.9  20  47 280.6 281.3 277.4 291.6  3.97
  4  850  1427  -1.6  -1.6 100  0.0  -1.6  27  50 284.5 285.2 279.4 295.8  3.99
  5  800  1908  -3.4  -3.4  99  0.1  -3.4  32  46 287.6 288.2 280.6 298.2  3.71
  6  750  2418  -4.5  -4.6  99  0.1  -4.6  27  40 291.7 292.4 282.3 302.3  3.62
  7  700  2959  -6.9  -7.3  97  0.4  -7.1  29  28 294.8 295.4 283.1 304.2  3.15
  8  650  3535  -9.0  -9.5  96  0.5  -9.2   5  18 298.8 299.3 284.4 307.5  2.87
  9  600  4151 -12.4 -13.3  93  0.8 -12.7 327  20 301.8 302.2 284.9 308.9  2.29
10  550  4809 -18.0 -20.0  84  2.1 -18.4 308  17 302.8 303.0 284.3 307.3  1.42
11  500  5513 -22.7 -33.2  38 10.4 -24.3 281  12 305.3 305.4 284.1 306.9  0.47
12  450  6282 -25.1 -47.8  10 22.8 -27.2 251  12 311.7 311.8 286.1 312.2  0.11
13  400  7132 -28.3 -60.0   3 31.7 -30.2 232  21 318.3 318.3 288.2 318.4  0.03
14  350  8081 -32.0 -62.4   3 30.4 -33.6 222  39 325.6 325.6 290.5 325.7  0.02
15  300  9157 -37.6 -65.3   4 27.7 -38.7 221  53 332.4 332.4 292.4 332.5  0.02
16  250 10397 -43.6                      224  63 341.2                       
17  200 11871 -51.3                      223  63 351.6                       
18  150 13714 -56.6                      230  77 372.5                       
19  100 16239 -63.2                      238  80 405.7                       
TRP                                             0                             
WND                                             0                             

Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick:      5387.74 m
Freezing level:          947.37 mb =   561.46 m =  1842.03 ft
Wetbulb zero:            948.95 mb =   547.56 m =  1796.44 ft
Precipitable water:        0.61 inches
 

 

 

Date: 42 hour Eta valid 6Z FRI 18 JAN 13
Station: KEHO
Latitude:   35.26
Longitude: -81.60
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   173                                                                
SFC  989   259   0.3  -0.6  93  0.9  -0.0 353   6 274.3 274.9 273.6 284.4  3.70
  2  950   585  -0.6  -2.7  86  2.0  -1.4 356  24 276.5 277.1 274.3 285.7  3.30
  3  900  1015  -3.4  -5.9  83  2.5  -4.3   1  37 278.0 278.5 274.4 285.7  2.74
  4  850  1466  -3.7 -10.5  59  6.8  -6.0   3  49 282.2 282.6 275.6 288.1  2.01
  5  800  1944  -3.7 -13.7  46 10.0  -6.8   3  49 287.2 287.5 277.7 292.1  1.65
  6  750  2454  -4.1 -13.3  49  9.2  -7.1 359  46 292.1 292.4 280.3 297.7  1.83
  7  700  2996  -5.4 -13.7  52  8.2  -8.1 350  44 296.5 296.8 282.3 302.3  1.90
  8  650  3575  -7.7 -16.0  51  8.3 -10.2 348  43 300.3 300.6 283.6 305.6  1.69
  9  600  4193 -11.1 -19.7  49  8.5 -13.5 345  45 303.3 303.5 284.4 307.6  1.34
10  550  4856 -14.8 -23.6  47  8.7 -16.9 334  49 306.5 306.7 285.3 309.9  1.04
11  500  5570 -19.7 -28.4  46  8.8 -21.3 322  51 309.1 309.2 285.9 311.6  0.73
12  450  6345 -24.5 -31.9  50  7.4 -25.6 313  54 312.5 312.6 286.9 314.5  0.59
13  400  7193 -29.7 -37.6  46  7.9 -30.7 307  48 316.3 316.4 288.0 317.7  0.37
14  350  8133 -35.1 -46.9  29 11.8 -36.0 286  43 321.4 321.4 289.3 322.0  0.16
15  300  9194 -41.2 -60.3  11 19.1 -41.9 276  59 327.3 327.3 291.0 327.4  0.04
16  250 10414 -47.6 -71.9   4 24.3 -48.1 267  70 335.3 335.3 293.2 335.3  0.01
17  200 11864 -53.7 -74.6   6 20.9 -54.0 255  74 347.7 347.7 296.1 347.8  0.01
18  150 13690 -58.2 -72.7  14 14.4 -58.5 250  73 369.7 369.7 300.5 369.8  0.01
19  100 16215 -63.7 -81.4   7 17.7 -63.9 238  71 404.6 404.6 305.8 404.6  0.01
TRP                                             0                             
WND                                             0                             

Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick:      5396.95 m
Freezing level:          975.49 mb =   374.07 m =  1227.26 ft
Wetbulb zero:        Below ground
Precipitable water:        0.41 inches
 

[tnweathernut]

Does the hi-res NAM run concurrently with the regular NAM? If so...................who has it? I'd love to see it as it performs well with all the elevation differences here in east TN

[Stovepipe]

I am really concerned about east TN.  Even if it doesn't switch to snow and accumulate, that is a TON of precip over an already way beyond too saturated ground!  If there is a 8-12 inch snow in the mountains (or more) this will bring limbs and trees down into the rivers. 

 

IMO this will be a life threatening situation for some.

 

Yep, we're going to be closing in on a half a foot of rain soon.  Lots of schools out today from flooding.  Even if this isn't frozen, the inch+ of additional QPF is going to cause trouble.

[tarheelwx]

Does NAM snow depth maps take into account the ground temps?

[DaculaWeather]

Does the hi-res NAM run concurrently with the regular NAM? If so...................who has it? I'd love to see it as it performs well with all the elevation differences here in east TN

Here's what's running now: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_model_run_status.php

[tnweathernut]

Yep, we're going to be closing in on a half a foot of rain soon.  Lots of schools out today from flooding.  Even if this isn't frozen, the inch+ of additional QPF is going cause trouble.

The problem will be when trees and limbs back up swollen rivers.  It WILL snow at elevation, I think that's a certainty. All that rain has to go somewhere, so people that live along the river (that are normally safe) will be at risk here.  It's a very serious situation for those that live near the mountains and rivers.  A similar set of events happened back in the 90's and several lost homes, some lost their life.

[Jon]

Does NAM snow depth maps take into account the ground temps?

No, 850mb temps I'm pretty sure.

[DaculaWeather]

60 doesn't do me much better

[eyewall]

I'll take my 4" and call it a day LOL.

[packbacker]

Why are the foothills getting snow holed?

[RaleighWx]

Right now dont worry about the literall model snowfall output.

 

For most areas outside the mountains, particularly across NC/southern Va, it looks like we get a 3-6 hour although probably more like 3 as far as accumulating goes period of snow as the rain change to snow. To me this combined with the fact the cold is chasing the snow and the ground is starting warm, means a general 1-3 inch snow outside of the mountains and locations in central/northern Va sounds like a good call. Locally higher amounts will surely be possible.

[calculus1]

Why are the foothills getting snow holed?

 

The million dollar question.  Here are the soundings from the recent NAM for hours 39 and 42 for HKY:

 

Date: 39 hour Eta valid 3Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: KHKYLatitude:   35.73Longitude: -81.38-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   124                                                                 SFC  974   337   0.4   0.1  97  0.4   0.3 359  15 275.7 276.3 274.8 286.4  3.94  2  950   536  -0.1  -0.1 100  0.1  -0.1   6  29 277.1 277.8 275.6 288.1  3.99  3  900   968  -1.0  -1.1  99  0.1  -1.0  16  51 280.5 281.2 277.4 291.4  3.92  4  850  1424  -1.4  -1.6  99  0.1  -1.5  19  50 284.6 285.3 279.6 296.0  4.01  5  800  1907  -2.3  -2.4  99  0.1  -2.4  21  45 288.7 289.4 281.4 300.2  3.99  6  750  2419  -3.0  -3.2  99  0.1  -3.1  17  40 293.3 294.0 283.4 305.1  4.03  7  700  2963  -5.8  -6.3  97  0.5  -6.0  28  33 296.0 296.7 283.9 306.3  3.42  8  650  3541  -7.7  -8.3  95  0.6  -7.9   7   9 300.3 300.9 285.2 309.9  3.14  9  600  4160 -11.8 -12.5  95  0.6 -12.1 235   8 302.4 302.9 285.3 310.1  2.45 10  550  4819 -16.9 -19.2  82  2.3 -17.5 155  18 304.0 304.3 284.9 308.9  1.53 11  500  5527 -21.4 -27.8  56  6.4 -22.6 132  25 306.9 307.1 285.1 309.5  0.78 12  450  6297 -25.8 -34.5  44  8.8 -27.0 116  25 310.9 311.0 286.2 312.5  0.46 13  400  7144 -29.0 -43.8  23 14.8 -30.4 135  17 317.3 317.3 288.1 318.0  0.20 14  350  8090 -33.3 -57.3   7 23.9 -34.7 188  29 323.8 323.8 290.0 324.0  0.05 15  300  9159 -39.2 -64.8   5 25.6 -40.1 198  44 330.2 330.2 291.8 330.3  0.02 16  250 10390 -45.1                      204  57 338.9                         17  200 11857 -52.1                      210  64 350.3                         18  150 13698 -56.8                      227  77 372.1                         19  100 16223 -62.7                      238  79 406.5                        TRP                                             0                              WND                                             0                              Sounding variables and indices1000-500 mb thick:      5403.75 mFreezing level:          953.06 mb =   510.29 m =  1674.17 ftWetbulb zero:            956.61 mb =   480.21 m =  1575.48 ftPrecipitable water:        0.64 inches

 

AND

 

Date: 42 hour Eta valid 6Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: KHKYLatitude:   35.73Longitude: -81.38-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   174                                                                 SFC  980   339  -0.6  -2.4  88  1.8  -1.3 324   6 274.1 274.7 272.9 283.0  3.26  2  950   585  -0.9  -3.2  85  2.2  -1.8 350  20 276.2 276.8 274.0 285.0  3.18  3  900  1014  -3.8  -6.5  81  2.7  -4.8 354  34 277.6 278.0 273.9 284.9  2.60  4  850  1464  -4.3 -12.5  53  8.2  -6.8 358  48 281.6 281.9 274.9 286.7  1.72  5  800  1941  -4.2 -16.7  37 12.4  -7.7 358  50 286.6 286.9 276.9 290.5  1.30  6  750  2450  -4.5 -15.5  42 11.0  -7.8 355  48 291.7 292.0 279.7 296.3  1.52  7  700  2992  -5.3 -14.7  47  9.4  -8.3 348  44 296.7 297.0 282.2 302.0  1.74  8  650  3571  -7.7 -16.1  51  8.5 -10.3 347  41 300.3 300.6 283.6 305.5  1.67  9  600  4189 -11.4 -19.5  51  8.0 -13.6 346  42 302.9 303.1 284.3 307.2  1.36 10  550  4851 -15.4 -23.4  50  8.1 -17.3 336  45 305.9 306.1 285.1 309.3  1.05 11  500  5563 -20.0 -28.1  49  8.1 -21.5 324  43 308.6 308.8 285.8 311.2  0.76 12  450  6337 -24.9 -31.3  55  6.4 -25.9 317  53 311.9 312.0 286.8 314.0  0.62 13  400  7182 -30.8 -36.1  60  5.3 -31.5 313  43 314.9 315.0 287.6 316.5  0.44 14  350  8117 -36.7 -44.5  44  7.8 -37.3 296  31 319.3 319.3 288.8 320.0  0.21 15  300  9171 -42.1 -56.5  19 14.4 -42.7 278  45 326.0 326.1 290.6 326.3  0.06 16  250 10389 -47.7 -68.8   7 21.1 -48.2 272  60 335.2 335.2 293.1 335.2  0.01 17  200 11842 -53.2 -73.9   6 20.7 -53.5 257  67 348.5 348.5 296.3 348.5  0.01 18  150 13671 -57.8 -72.1  15 14.2 -58.0 252  70 370.4 370.4 300.7 370.5  0.02 19  100 16198 -63.4 -81.3   7 17.9 -63.6 237  72 405.1 405.1 305.9 405.2  0.01TRP                                             0                              WND                                             0                              Sounding variables and indices1000-500 mb thick:      5389.83 mFreezing level:      Surface below freezingWetbulb zero:        Below groundPrecipitable water:        0.37 inches

 

Both of those look pretty good for snow to me with quite a bit of QPF.  I'm not sure what the models are seeing, but if they are right then this is pretty much a redux of that March 2009 event regarding snow totals in NC.  Perhaps they are seeing a warm bubble of temps nestled up against the mountains.

[RaleighWx]

Does the hi-res NAM run concurrently with the regular NAM? If so...................who has it? I'd love to see it as it performs well with all the elevation differences here in east TN

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/NAM4km.html

 

OUt to hour 16 now. Not every parameter is plotting right now. But the key ones are.

[strongwxnc]

Sounding for kfqd which is Sw of you is also very close to the sounding you posted! Lee side shadow I guess

The million dollar question. Here are the soundings from the recent NAM for hours 39 and 42 for HKY:

Date: 39 hour Eta valid 3Z FRI 18 JAN 13
Station: KHKY
Latitude:   35.73
Longitude: -81.38
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   124                                                                 
SFC  974   337   0.4   0.1  97  0.4   0.3 359  15 275.7 276.3 274.8 286.4  3.94
  2  950   536  -0.1  -0.1 100  0.1  -0.1   6  29 277.1 277.8 275.6 288.1  3.99
  3  900   968  -1.0  -1.1  99  0.1  -1.0  16  51 280.5 281.2 277.4 291.4  3.92
  4  850  1424  -1.4  -1.6  99  0.1  -1.5  19  50 284.6 285.3 279.6 296.0  4.01
  5  800  1907  -2.3  -2.4  99  0.1  -2.4  21  45 288.7 289.4 281.4 300.2  3.99
  6  750  2419  -3.0  -3.2  99  0.1  -3.1  17  40 293.3 294.0 283.4 305.1  4.03
  7  700  2963  -5.8  -6.3  97  0.5  -6.0  28  33 296.0 296.7 283.9 306.3  3.42
  8  650  3541  -7.7  -8.3  95  0.6  -7.9   7   9 300.3 300.9 285.2 309.9  3.14
  9  600  4160 -11.8 -12.5  95  0.6 -12.1 235   8 302.4 302.9 285.3 310.1  2.45
 10  550  4819 -16.9 -19.2  82  2.3 -17.5 155  18 304.0 304.3 284.9 308.9  1.53
 11  500  5527 -21.4 -27.8  56  6.4 -22.6 132  25 306.9 307.1 285.1 309.5  0.78
 12  450  6297 -25.8 -34.5  44  8.8 -27.0 116  25 310.9 311.0 286.2 312.5  0.46
 13  400  7144 -29.0 -43.8  23 14.8 -30.4 135  17 317.3 317.3 288.1 318.0  0.20
 14  350  8090 -33.3 -57.3   7 23.9 -34.7 188  29 323.8 323.8 290.0 324.0  0.05
 15  300  9159 -39.2 -64.8   5 25.6 -40.1 198  44 330.2 330.2 291.8 330.3  0.02
 16  250 10390 -45.1                      204  57 338.9                        
 17  200 11857 -52.1                      210  64 350.3                        
 18  150 13698 -56.8                      227  77 372.1                        
 19  100 16223 -62.7                      238  79 406.5                        
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0                              

Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick:      5403.75 m
Freezing level:          953.06 mb =   510.29 m =  1674.17 ft
Wetbulb zero:            956.61 mb =   480.21 m =  1575.48 ft
Precipitable water:        0.64 inches

AND

Date: 42 hour Eta valid 6Z FRI 18 JAN 13
Station: KHKY
Latitude:   35.73
Longitude: -81.38
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   174                                                                 
SFC  980   339  -0.6  -2.4  88  1.8  -1.3 324   6 274.1 274.7 272.9 283.0  3.26
  2  950   585  -0.9  -3.2  85  2.2  -1.8 350  20 276.2 276.8 274.0 285.0  3.18
  3  900  1014  -3.8  -6.5  81  2.7  -4.8 354  34 277.6 278.0 273.9 284.9  2.60
  4  850  1464  -4.3 -12.5  53  8.2  -6.8 358  48 281.6 281.9 274.9 286.7  1.72
  5  800  1941  -4.2 -16.7  37 12.4  -7.7 358  50 286.6 286.9 276.9 290.5  1.30
  6  750  2450  -4.5 -15.5  42 11.0  -7.8 355  48 291.7 292.0 279.7 296.3  1.52
  7  700  2992  -5.3 -14.7  47  9.4  -8.3 348  44 296.7 297.0 282.2 302.0  1.74
  8  650  3571  -7.7 -16.1  51  8.5 -10.3 347  41 300.3 300.6 283.6 305.5  1.67
  9  600  4189 -11.4 -19.5  51  8.0 -13.6 346  42 302.9 303.1 284.3 307.2  1.36
 10  550  4851 -15.4 -23.4  50  8.1 -17.3 336  45 305.9 306.1 285.1 309.3  1.05
 11  500  5563 -20.0 -28.1  49  8.1 -21.5 324  43 308.6 308.8 285.8 311.2  0.76
 12  450  6337 -24.9 -31.3  55  6.4 -25.9 317  53 311.9 312.0 286.8 314.0  0.62
 13  400  7182 -30.8 -36.1  60  5.3 -31.5 313  43 314.9 315.0 287.6 316.5  0.44
 14  350  8117 -36.7 -44.5  44  7.8 -37.3 296  31 319.3 319.3 288.8 320.0  0.21
 15  300  9171 -42.1 -56.5  19 14.4 -42.7 278  45 326.0 326.1 290.6 326.3  0.06
 16  250 10389 -47.7 -68.8   7 21.1 -48.2 272  60 335.2 335.2 293.1 335.2  0.01
 17  200 11842 -53.2 -73.9   6 20.7 -53.5 257  67 348.5 348.5 296.3 348.5  0.01
 18  150 13671 -57.8 -72.1  15 14.2 -58.0 252  70 370.4 370.4 300.7 370.5  0.02
 19  100 16198 -63.4 -81.3   7 17.9 -63.6 237  72 405.1 405.1 305.9 405.2  0.01
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0                              

Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick:      5389.83 m
Freezing level:      Surface below freezing
Wetbulb zero:        Below ground
Precipitable water:        0.37 inches

Both of those look pretty good for snow to me. With quite a bit of QPF. I'm not sure what the models are seeing, but if they are right then this is pretty much a redux of that March 2009 event regarding snow totals in NC.

[Wow]

Wow -- this is getting pretty close, if not already there!

 

 

Date: 39 hour Eta valid 3Z FRI 18 JAN 13

Station: KEHO

Latitude:   35.26

Longitude: -81.60

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W

     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  0 1000   126                                                                

SFC  984   256   1.6   0.8  94  0.8   1.3 351  12 276.0 276.7 275.2 287.3  4.12

  2  950   539   0.0  -0.0 100  0.1   0.0   4  27 277.2 277.9 275.7 288.3  4.02

  3  900   971  -0.9  -0.9 100  0.0  -0.9  20  47 280.6 281.3 277.4 291.6  3.97

  4  850  1427  -1.6  -1.6 100  0.0  -1.6  27  50 284.5 285.2 279.4 295.8  3.99

  5  800  1908  -3.4  -3.4  99  0.1  -3.4  32  46 287.6 288.2 280.6 298.2  3.71

  6  750  2418  -4.5  -4.6  99  0.1  -4.6  27  40 291.7 292.4 282.3 302.3  3.62

  7  700  2959  -6.9  -7.3  97  0.4  -7.1  29  28 294.8 295.4 283.1 304.2  3.15

  8  650  3535  -9.0  -9.5  96  0.5  -9.2   5  18 298.8 299.3 284.4 307.5  2.87

  9  600  4151 -12.4 -13.3  93  0.8 -12.7 327  20 301.8 302.2 284.9 308.9  2.29

10  550  4809 -18.0 -20.0  84  2.1 -18.4 308  17 302.8 303.0 284.3 307.3  1.42

11  500  5513 -22.7 -33.2  38 10.4 -24.3 281  12 305.3 305.4 284.1 306.9  0.47

12  450  6282 -25.1 -47.8  10 22.8 -27.2 251  12 311.7 311.8 286.1 312.2  0.11

13  400  7132 -28.3 -60.0   3 31.7 -30.2 232  21 318.3 318.3 288.2 318.4  0.03

14  350  8081 -32.0 -62.4   3 30.4 -33.6 222  39 325.6 325.6 290.5 325.7  0.02

15  300  9157 -37.6 -65.3   4 27.7 -38.7 221  53 332.4 332.4 292.4 332.5  0.02

16  250 10397 -43.6                      224  63 341.2                       

17  200 11871 -51.3                      223  63 351.6                       

18  150 13714 -56.6                      230  77 372.5                       

19  100 16239 -63.2                      238  80 405.7                       

TRP                                             0                             

WND                                             0                             

Sounding variables and indices

1000-500 mb thick:      5387.74 m

Freezing level:          947.37 mb =   561.46 m =  1842.03 ft

Wetbulb zero:            948.95 mb =   547.56 m =  1796.44 ft

Precipitable water:        0.61 inches

 

 

 

Date: 42 hour Eta valid 6Z FRI 18 JAN 13

Station: KEHO

Latitude:   35.26

Longitude: -81.60

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W

     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  0 1000   173                                                                

SFC  989   259   0.3  -0.6  93  0.9  -0.0 353   6 274.3 274.9 273.6 284.4  3.70

  2  950   585  -0.6  -2.7  86  2.0  -1.4 356  24 276.5 277.1 274.3 285.7  3.30

  3  900  1015  -3.4  -5.9  83  2.5  -4.3   1  37 278.0 278.5 274.4 285.7  2.74

  4  850  1466  -3.7 -10.5  59  6.8  -6.0   3  49 282.2 282.6 275.6 288.1  2.01

  5  800  1944  -3.7 -13.7  46 10.0  -6.8   3  49 287.2 287.5 277.7 292.1  1.65

  6  750  2454  -4.1 -13.3  49  9.2  -7.1 359  46 292.1 292.4 280.3 297.7  1.83

  7  700  2996  -5.4 -13.7  52  8.2  -8.1 350  44 296.5 296.8 282.3 302.3  1.90

  8  650  3575  -7.7 -16.0  51  8.3 -10.2 348  43 300.3 300.6 283.6 305.6  1.69

  9  600  4193 -11.1 -19.7  49  8.5 -13.5 345  45 303.3 303.5 284.4 307.6  1.34

10  550  4856 -14.8 -23.6  47  8.7 -16.9 334  49 306.5 306.7 285.3 309.9  1.04

11  500  5570 -19.7 -28.4  46  8.8 -21.3 322  51 309.1 309.2 285.9 311.6  0.73

12  450  6345 -24.5 -31.9  50  7.4 -25.6 313  54 312.5 312.6 286.9 314.5  0.59

13  400  7193 -29.7 -37.6  46  7.9 -30.7 307  48 316.3 316.4 288.0 317.7  0.37

14  350  8133 -35.1 -46.9  29 11.8 -36.0 286  43 321.4 321.4 289.3 322.0  0.16

15  300  9194 -41.2 -60.3  11 19.1 -41.9 276  59 327.3 327.3 291.0 327.4  0.04

16  250 10414 -47.6 -71.9   4 24.3 -48.1 267  70 335.3 335.3 293.2 335.3  0.01

17  200 11864 -53.7 -74.6   6 20.9 -54.0 255  74 347.7 347.7 296.1 347.8  0.01

18  150 13690 -58.2 -72.7  14 14.4 -58.5 250  73 369.7 369.7 300.5 369.8  0.01

19  100 16215 -63.7 -81.4   7 17.7 -63.9 238  71 404.6 404.6 305.8 404.6  0.01

TRP                                             0                             

WND                                             0                             

Sounding variables and indices

1000-500 mb thick:      5396.95 m

Freezing level:          975.49 mb =   374.07 m =  1227.26 ft

Wetbulb zero:        Below ground

Precipitable water:        0.41 inches

 

 

Temps crash hard between 36 and 39

[calculus1]

For comparison's sake, here's the sounding for hour 39 at KMRN (morganton-lenoir airport).  Notice that the lower levels of the atmosphere are warmer than they were for the same time period at KHKY even though KMRN is further NW than KHKY and traditionally sees better chances at snowfall.  It does look like the models see a slight warm bubble here.  Now:  what's causing that?  I don't know.  See map for location.

 

Date: 39 hour Eta valid 3Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: KMRNLatitude:   35.82Longitude: -81.61-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   128                                                                 SFC  965   417   0.4   0.1  98  0.3   0.3 358  15 276.4 277.1 275.3 287.3  3.99  2  950   540   0.1   0.1 100  0.1   0.1   3  24 277.3 278.0 275.9 288.4  4.05  3  900   972  -1.5  -1.8  98  0.3  -1.6  10  48 280.0 280.6 276.8 290.3  3.72  4  850  1426  -2.0  -2.3  98  0.3  -2.1  12  53 284.0 284.7 279.0 294.7  3.79  5  800  1909  -1.6  -1.8  99  0.2  -1.7  10  45 289.5 290.2 282.0 301.6  4.20  6  750  2423  -2.2  -2.3  99  0.1  -2.3   4  33 294.2 294.9 284.1 306.8  4.30  7  700  2968  -5.5  -6.0  96  0.5  -5.7  24  31 296.4 297.1 284.1 306.9  3.49  8  650  3547  -7.6  -8.4  94  0.7  -7.9  24  16 300.3 300.9 285.2 309.9  3.13  9  600  4167 -10.7 -11.7  93  1.0 -11.1 303  10 303.7 304.2 286.0 311.9  2.61 10  550  4829 -16.1 -17.6  88  1.6 -16.5 177   6 305.0 305.3 285.5 310.6  1.74 11  500  5538 -21.8 -25.3  73  3.5 -22.5 124  20 306.5 306.7 285.2 309.7  0.98 12  450  6306 -26.5 -31.5  62  5.1 -27.2 101  27 310.0 310.1 286.1 312.1  0.61 13  400  7149 -30.5 -38.8  44  8.3 -31.4  94  23 315.3 315.4 287.6 316.5  0.33 14  350  8090 -34.7 -52.6  14 17.9 -35.8 165  16 322.0 322.0 289.5 322.3  0.08 15  300  9153 -40.1 -64.6   6 24.5 -40.9 194  32 328.9 328.9 291.4 329.0  0.02 16  250 10381 -45.5                      203  49 338.4                         17  200 11849 -51.8                      212  59 350.7                         18  150 13692 -56.4                      229  72 372.9                         19  100 16217 -62.6                      238  77 406.7                        TRP                                             0                              WND                                             0                              Sounding variables and indices1000-500 mb thick:      5410.49 mFreezing level:          945.50 mb =   578.68 m =  1898.52 ftWetbulb zero:            946.10 mb =   572.66 m =  1878.79 ftPrecipitable water:        0.64 inches

 

[SeVa]

Can someone provide a link to the website with the sounding data in table form?

[DaculaWeather]

I would start looking at the p-type nomograms about now, they are in the wheelhouse of about every model. Click on a town and then click on "Current" for the various models.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nomogram_master.php

[calculus1]

Can someone provide a link to the website with the sounding data in table form?

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html

 

Choose your parameters and away you go!

[SeVa]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html

Choose your parameters and away you go!

Thank you

[burgertime]

Hi-Res NAM is out of this world for QPF has areas of SW NC in 5 inches RDU around 1.5 with CLT and points north and west 3 +!

[tnweathernut]

Hi-Res NAM is out of this world for QPF has areas of SW NC in 5 inches RDU around 1.5 with CLT and points north and west 3 +!

Care to post the map Burger?

[burgertime]

Hi Res NAM also has 850 temps crashing around heaviest precip....around 6 hours of could be snow for CLT area and points west. This thing could surprise a lot of folks. 

[burgertime]

Care to post the map Burger?

 

I'm using SV so I can't.