Wow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think we'll see an extended period of snow.. still hard to pin down anything. These ULL systems always surprise us one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This whole naming of winter storm is just ridiculous! Next it will be when air masses change. Alert, Alert,Alert! Fresh air from GLADE will be pouring into the US, lets go to our fresh air expert Dr. Wizard, as he tracking the fresh air and how it going to effect Atlanta and New York. Don't get me started on this. Have you seen those horrible Wx Underground videos? It's a matter of time before there's a behind the scenes Weather Channel reality show. Swizzle stick time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looking at the hi-res NAM (admittedly for my area of east TN)......................it's easy to see the pains weather forecasters will endure over the coming couple of days. Multiple models spit out heavy snow (even for lower elevations), though the profiles are razor thin (save for the mountains). It definitely has an elevation dependent look to it so I understand the caution from MRX and local media outlets. I mean, if you predict 4-8 inches for the valleys here you would have mass chaos today and high bust potential. It's gametime for the mountains (probably above 2-3,000 feet)............for the rest of us it's another day of scrutinizing every model run and hoping higher rates can do its dirty work. I am going to coin the phrase (hi-res NAM screw job) for our area. This is for clown maps that look great until you see the downsloping and temp issues present on the hi-res model. Good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Kfqd sounding off the nam at that hour is close skip ! It's pretty tough to swallow that this map does not result in measureable snow for the CLT metro area and most of N.C. east of the mts.: You would think being just north of that low as it swings through would really do the trick for CLT west. This is gonna come down to the wire for sure but you gotta love those precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Robert's newest headline: "Dangerous Upper Low Snowstorm Alert" Good time to become a member.............and no he's not paying me a thing for this advertising, i just loved the headline. And he just posted this on facebook. Just sent out an alert with the details and timing of the changeover to all my premium subscribers. I'll have extensive maps and hour by hour changeover graphics after the noon model runs.In a nutshell this has trended to what WxSouth thought upper low climatology supports. The upper low holds in tact and turns negative tilt running through Georgia and through the Eastern Carolinas and just offsh...ore Virginia. This will place the comma head and best dynamic lift from extreme northern Ga, eastern TN , western NC and into northern and central NC to much of Virginia, where all those areas turn over to wet, heavy snow around dark. 2" per hour snow rates and thunder snow in some areas under excellent lift and dynamic cooling. Very bad news for trees and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Man FFC has stepped up the Disco this year! May not be what I want to hear, but they explain it to a T. QUESTION THEN BECOMES...CONTRASTING THE RAPIDLY LOWERING TEMPS WITH THE DECREASING POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER. SEVERAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER HERE... WITH THE MAIN POINTS OF CONCERN BEING 1-PRESENCE OF ICE NUCLEI... 2-MOISTURE AMOUNT THROUGH THE COLUMN...AND 3-SURFACE TEMPS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REDUCES QUICKLY AFTER 21Z THURSDAY BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ABOVE ABOUT 700MB /NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS WELL/ WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION TO LIFT MOISTURE TO DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE THAT STARTS AT ABOUT -9C ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THAT SAID...BY THE TIME SURFACE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING IN ALL BUT EAST AND NORTHEAST ZONES. USING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD TO EVALUATE ALL PARAMETERS...EXPECT THAT A MIX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA AROUND 18Z...REMAINING MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON /21Z OR SO/ WHEN SURFACE TEMPS START DROPPING ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO START GETTING A MIX IN THOSE AREAS. THROUGH THE EVENING...EXPECT THAT THE MIXED PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS BUT MAY REACH PARTS OF THE NORTH METRO WITH A SNOW/RAIN/SLEET MIX. THE LOCATION OF FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT ICE NUCLEATION. TOWARD 00Z FRIDAY...AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT...WE LOSE THE MOISTURE ALOFT TO SUPPORT NUCLEATION AND THUS EXPECT THE FROZEN PRECIP TO CHANGE TO FREEZING WITH A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALL THIS SAID...DESPITE THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS /SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW/ DO NOT FEEL THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS SUPPORTIVE OF A WINTER STORM WATCH. THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MODEL FIELDS TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION...SO AT THIS POINT IT IS NOT AN ISSUE OF PUTTING OFF WATCH ISSUANCE FOR A LATER SHIFT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT RATHER THINKING THAT ONE WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT ALL. WHAT DOES ACCUMULATE WILL BE INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA /MAINLY DADE AND PORTIONS OF WALKER COUNTIES/ BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY WITH LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW...AND THEN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WITH AGAIN LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES TOTAL BUT LINGERING THROUGH ALMOST 06Z WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE END. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ICE ACCRETION TO SPEAK OF. WILL CONTINUE THE SPS TO DISCUSS THE EVENT. TDP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Out to twelve and it just looks to me like the NAM is a tad stronger than it was at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 By the way I have an hour meeting at 9 so I won't be around for the NAM PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I wasn't expecting to wake up and see that I'm under a WSW for up to 6". 12z NAM is rolling .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 As always with these systems, it will be a NowCast type of thing. I'm sure there will be plenty of surprises, and I certainly hope we're surprised here because it's looking pitiful for us. Good luck to everyone, hope everyone sees something! I might have mentioned this but I created two loops, one for 00Z and one for 12Z. The images are temperature contour maps starting back last Wednesday. I'm adding an image a day and each image is 24 hours from the last. You can get a feel for how the cold ebbs and flows over the course of days or weeks. I plan on keeping this going over the rest of winter. There are blank images in the loops so right now they only go through what I have today. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_00_temp_loop.php http://www.daculaweather.com/4_12_temp_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Guys the soil temps in triad are pretty similiar to the March 2009 event mid-upper 40's. Need to find the temps at that time. Ended up with 5 heavy wet inches here that melted bottom up fast next day with a much higher sun angle. Still had time to get in some good sledding and pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No major changes out to 21 on the NAM maybe a hair more neutral to negative tilt Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No major changes out to 21 on the NAM maybe a hair more neutral to negative tilt Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2 It's 3 hours slower than the 0z run through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 definitely a tad slower, and more precip in MS behind the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Pardon the IMBY, but I have to post this very rare site: It may not be accurate, but it is a beautiful thing to behold. If the valley can pull off half of this I'll be shocked out of my gourd and making slushy snow angels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Better tilt causing 850 low to be stronger, at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 At hour 36, it is snowing in NW Ga, extreme NE AL, eastern TN, southwest NC and the NC mountains, SE KY, western and northern Va, southern Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It does appear to be a little slower. Looking good for the WNC and east Tn. at at hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Pardon the IMBY, but I have to post this very rare site: It may not be accurate, but it is a beautiful thing to behold. If the valley can pull off half of this I'll be shocked out of my gourd and making slushy snow angels. For TYS, that is incredible. I'm pulling for my Knoxville brethren to see a surprise from this. I'm at work and posting from my phone, is there any chance you can access that graph for KTRI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM keeps trending stronger -- both the 500 and 850 lows are stronger -- maybe a touch slower. 850 temps crashing a bit faster than 6z runs into upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z NAM clown map will probably be as good as it gets for eastern TN. Looks great, but is it realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WxSouth/Foothills on the NAM An early look at the new NAM model....WOW !!The models just keep on keeping with the idea of a much stronger upper low, so this is most definitely trending toward a March 2009 deal for some areas of northeast Alabama, northern GA, eastern TN and the Western Carolinas. Then the question becomes how well organized does it stay after it moves offshore? The trends is what matters most. There will be a band of super-duy snowfall rates once the switch over from rain to snow occurs in your area. Again, I've outlined several times where that will occur. Eastern TN, much of NC and much of Virginia....you're going to get clocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Extended pause between 36 and 39 .... #drama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 At hour 39 ptype/1000-440mb RH/700mb VV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hour42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 500 low still closed off at 39 -- wasn't at 45 on 6z NAM or 6z GFS. And STILL closed off at 42 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For TYS, that is incredible. I'm pulling for my Knoxville brethren to see a surprise from this. I'm at work and posting from my phone, is there any chance you can access that graph for KTRI? Sure thing buddy, but I think the models are trolling us at this point LMAO! That's like DGEX level trolling right there. Enjoy your 27 inches! Edit: Just noticed that Iowa State upped the ratios to 30:1 for some strange reason. Never seen that before. Obviously that gram is silly. Focus on the Cobb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Holy! 12z says my back yard might be money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hour42 Thanks Allan...According to the NAM at hr 42 we should be in some heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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