burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Good morning folks. As promised my morning discussion with first forecast map. Will be following all day. http://www.examiner.com/article/snow-possible-thursday-night Great disco as always Allan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks Allan, a bit conservative versus the clowns which is always a good move. I am in B, foothills but on the TN side, does the B side in TN include just the mountains or would you include the lower elevations of the boarding counties as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Great overnight discussion folks. Also, great contributions from Alan and Matthew East this morning on their websites. Matthew shows exactly what the models depicted overnight and is well worth the 5 minutes to watch his video. Looks like the slightly stronger for a longer period of time trend continued overnight. Overall, I believe the temperatures trended slightly cooler as well. Man, 2 degrees will make a huge difference! Looks like it's time to start looking at some of the shorter range modeling and simulated radar that can give us some hints to the track of that all important deformation band. Does anyone have links to some of these models, what times they run, and which ones might be more accurate? I don't know how much snow I might end up with in MBY. However, I have learned over the years not to get too excited by the snow maps. A good rule of thumb for me is to take the average snow map, cut it in half, and subtract all of the counties on the periphery of the map. If your county is the last one on the edge of the accumulating snow, changes are you will miss out. I have been burned by that many times in the past. My county was modeled to get a couple of inches and we got nothing while the county to the north (Guilford) got the couple of inches. Anyway, good day to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks Allan, a bit conservative versus the clowns which is always a good move. I am in B, foothills but on the TN side, does the B side in TN include just the mountains or would you include the lower elevations of the boarding counties as well? I would include the lower elevations, but obviously the mountains have the better chance for the significant amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Good morning folks. As promised my morning discussion with first forecast map. Will be following all day. http://www.examiner.com/article/snow-possible-thursday-night Nice job Allan! For some reason I'm just not feeling this one. It might be because of the model shift yesterday to a more snowy solution but I'm still concerned w/ BL issues and this being a mostly cold rain event for our area. Or it could just be my negative ways...LOL! Anyway, I enjoyed the write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 +1 on this post and +2 for the great red taggers putting in comments to the disco!! The rule with this system might be 12 hours out before anyone (outside the painted snow madness areas) can get hopes up. I assume, once it comes into the area, I will be eye balling the 925 maps and hoping for the rain to come down in bucket to cool the lowers down. Great overnight discussion folks. Also, great contributions from Alan and Matthew East this morning on their websites. Matthew shows exactly what the models depicted overnight and is well worth the 5 minutes to watch his video. Looks like the slightly stronger for a longer period of time trend continued overnight. Overall, I believe the temperatures trended slightly cooler as well. Man, 2 degrees will make a huge difference! Looks like it's time to start looking at some of the shorter range modeling and simulated radar that can give us some hints to the track of that all important deformation band. Does anyone have links to some of these models, what times they run, and which ones might be more accurate? I don't know how much snow I might end up with in MBY. However, I have learned over the years not to get too excited by the snow maps. A good rule of thumb for me is to take the average snow map, cut it in half, and subtract all of the counties on the periphery of the map. If your county is the last one on the edge of the accumulating snow, changes are you will miss out. I have been burned by that many times in the past. My county was modeled to get a couple of inches and we got nothing while the county to the north (Guilford) got the couple of inches. Anyway, good day to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hell the way things are going, my rain chances are decreasing too. Thank you rain shield deflector. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's a little earlier in the game than I normally like to put a map out, but I have drawn one up. It, as well as my video and discussion, on the blog: East's Weather Page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Triad TV mets serving up a FAIL anywhere outside of the mountains. WXII just showed a low of 42 tomorrow night. There is either way too much optimism on this board (yes IMO) or a disconnect between last nights model runs and what the mets feel comfortable forecasting. We are in range for the short range models now so I am a little suprised at a potential 8-10 degree difference in the forecasts I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Matt I had to go to your page this morning to see what you had to say. I was not disappointed you always do a great video... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's a little earlier in the game than I normally like to put a map out, but I have drawn one up. It, as well as my video and discussion, on the blog: East's Weather Page Love the call map and video matt! This is what I would have expected to see from the local mets this morning based on the posts here overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Triad TV mets serving up a FAIL anywhere outside of the mountains. WXII just showed a low of 42 tomorrow night. There is either way too much optimism on this board (yes IMO) or a disconnect between last nights model runs and what the mets feel comfortable forecasting. We are in range for the short range models now so I am a little suprised at a potential 8-10 degree difference in the forecasts I am seeing. I was wondering if that was a typo on their forecast because Emily Byrd has a low of 28 for tomorrow night, while Austin had a low of 40. Talk about a major difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Triad TV mets serving up a FAIL anywhere outside of the mountains. WXII just showed a low of 42 tomorrow night. There is either way too much optimism on this board (yes IMO) or a disconnect between last nights model runs and what the mets feel comfortable forecasting. We are in range for the short range models now so I am a little suprised at a potential 8-10 degree difference in the forecasts I am seeing. Heh, I busted by 8 degrees on my forecast high yesterday that was issued the night before. I think this is a classic case of them not wanting to get burned. Until last night, forecasting anything other than a slushy dusting for the Triad would not have been wise. Now, the models are suggesting more, but it is a rather recent evolution. Additionally, this storm is not the classic system that brings snow to the Triad area. Finally, especially for TV mets, it's a lot easier to say rain and switch to snow later than it is to call for snow and then people get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I Don't see a map? Love the call map and video matt! This is what I would have expected to see from the local mets this morning based on the posts here overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The map of his thoughts are below the video at the page Matt posted above! I Don't see a map? Thanks East!! BTW, GSP thoughts for the southern foothills make Thursday look raw! Rain, mainly after 8am. Temperature falling to around 39 by 5pm. North wind 7 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Official KGSP Snow Accumulation Forecast for use in making business critical weather planning decisions: Dynamically updating embedded map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The trends look encouraging this morning to say the least. Hoping to eke out a dusting here..... I'd say the northern piedmont is in pretty good shape right now. Wish I was home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 unless there is a sudden southern shift in the upper low track, looks like ne ga is to get screwed completely. Only hope is that with the upper low./coldest temps going right over head that lapse rates/instability will produce some sleet/graupel or whatever as it moves over. Problem here (besides moisture) is 925 to surface temps being very warm here...last to cool in fact due to the mountains blocking low level caa. So unless there is some sort of convection that might produce something here reaching the ground, no dice. Looks good to me for nc, far nw ga, mountains, and NE alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Triad TV mets serving up a FAIL anywhere outside of the mountains. WXII just showed a low of 42 tomorrow night. There is either way too much optimism on this board (yes IMO) or a disconnect between last nights model runs and what the mets feel comfortable forecasting. We are in range for the short range models now so I am a little suprised at a potential 8-10 degree difference in the forecasts I am seeing. That's pretty typical. This storm has to potential to be great for many areas but also an epic fail for places outside of the mountains. It's easier for them to play catch up than forecast accumulating snow, get the public in a tizzy, then have to pull back the maps. Based on all of the model data, I'm pretty confident it is going to snow in the Triad and points N and W. The real question at this point is "how much??". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Alll the ensemble members in pretty good agreement http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zsnowf054.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 need to change the title to "Helen" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 OK, this might be a dumb question. How warm can the ground be right now? I know that we had really warm temps over the weekend and haven't been below freezing in a while. However, we have had NO sunshine in 4 days and the past 24 hours the temperature has been around 40 with a cold rain/drizzle the entire time. I didn't really want to start the soil temperature debate. I know that if it snows at an inch/hour or more rates it WILL accumulate. I was just curious because I have heard this from the TV mets already. Mr. East also mentions this in his discussion so I guess it does have some merit and not just an excuse for the TV folks to use to wiggle out of a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's pretty tough to swallow that this map does not result in measureable snow for the CLT metro area and most of N.C. east of the mts.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'll make a discussion when i get off work and a forecast total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 OK, this might be a dumb question. How warm can the ground be right now? I know that we had really warm temps over the weekend and haven't been below freezing in a while. However, we have had NO sunshine in 4 days and the past 24 hours the temperature has been around 40 with a cold rain/drizzle the entire time. I didn't really want to start the soil temperature debate. I know that if it snows at an inch/hour or more rates it WILL accumulate. I was just curious because I have heard this from the TV mets already. Mr. East also mentions this in his discussion so I guess it does have some merit and not just an excuse for the TV folks to use to wiggle out of a forecast. Soil temps are warm...mid to lower 50's. It will be an issue, but like you said...heavy rates can overcome. You can use this link to pull up soil temps in Durham, for example. http://nc-climate.ncsu.edu/cronos?station=DURH&temporal=hourly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 OK, this might be a dumb question. How warm can the ground be right now? I know that we had really warm temps over the weekend and haven't been below freezing in a while. However, we have had NO sunshine in 4 days and the past 24 hours the temperature has been around 40 with a cold rain/drizzle the entire time. I didn't really want to start the soil temperature debate. I know that if it snows at an inch/hour or more rates it WILL accumulate. I was just curious because I have heard this from the TV mets already. Mr. East also mentions this in his discussion so I guess it does have some merit and not just an excuse for the TV folks to use to wiggle out of a forecast. Try this out. Here's the link: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Kfqd sounding off the nam at that hour is close skip ! It's pretty tough to swallow that this map does not result in measureable snow for the CLT metro area and most of N.C. east of the mts.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Soil temps are warm...mid to lower 50's. It will be an issue, but like you said...heavy rates can overcome. You can use this link to pull up soil temps in Durham, for example. http://nc-climate.ncsu.edu/cronos?station=DURH&temporal=hourly Yes, the heavy rates shall overcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 need to change the title to "Helen" This whole naming of winter storm is just ridiculous! Next it will be when air masses change. Alert, Alert,Alert! Fresh air from GLADE will be pouring into the US, lets go to our fresh air expert Dr. Wizard, as he tracking the fresh air and how it going to effect Atlanta and New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Try this out. Here's the link: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/ Thanks for the link. I figured they would be mid 40's (which is close for MBY). They shouldn't warm too much between now and GO TIME either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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