Jon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's colder than 12z but not quite as good as NAM/GFS, probably a sloppy inch for RDU, VA/NC border probably a few inches. Yeah I guess that's why it's called a trend...haha. Slowly but surely. It is Colder, wetter, and stronger with the surface low. I'll take it. Bedtime for me though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's colder than 12z but not quite as good as NAM/GFS, probably a sloppy inch for RDU, VA/NC border probably a few inches. From what I have understood, the ECMWF is not as good as the American models (NAM,GFS) within 2 or 3 days for the USA. If anyone can link proof up, that'd be great. It's actually drizzling here and it wasn't supposed to at all this early currently btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 new Euro has our system a closed contour or so stronger with the vort energy at 48 hours and also much quicker compared to 72 hours on last night's 0z run also, slightly colder at 850 compared to last night's run at 72 hours looks very similar to the 0z GFS temp profile at that layer and wouldnt be cold enough outside of NC high terrain and northern NC/VA (at least at that time)... haven't looked to see if the cold will press into central NC, but it probably will to some degree since the vort seems to be holding together longer than previous Euro depictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The soundings come out pretty quick during the model run from Plymouth - http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Lots of QPF for WNC but only "some" snow for mountains? Are you saying euro is saying mostly rain for mountains then?? Yep that's what I mean...verbatim there is not a ton of snow in the mountains, from what I'm seeing...it's very close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 AVL QPF...so close. THU 18Z 17-JAN 3.5 3.6 1016 97 100 0.65 566 553 FRI 00Z 18-JAN 0.3 -0.8 1020 90 64 0.40 560 543 CLT gets well over 2" QPF, GSP with 2" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 new Euro has our system a closed contour or so stronger with the vort energy at 48 hours and also much quicker compared to 72 hours on last night's 0z run also, slightly colder at 850 compared to last night's run at 72 hours looks very similar to the 0z GFS temp profile at that layer and wouldnt be cold enough outside of NC high terrain and northern NC/VA (at least at that time)... haven't looked to see if the cold will press into central NC, but it probably will to some degree since the vort seems to be holding together longer than previous Euro depictions We need to get Brick out there and have him start huffing and puffing and blowing as hard as he can towards the west to slow this thing down! RDU has 0.73" of QPF that falls after 0z Friday, at 0z 850's are 0.5 and crash to -3 by 6z with 542 thicknesses. A couple degrees colder and its a different ball game, unfortunately I feel like we are squeezing every ounce of cold as it is now. Oh yeah surface temps drop from 5.2 to 1.6C during that time but do drop below freezing by 12z on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 From what I have understood, the ECMWF is not as good as the American models (NAM,GFS) within 2 or 3 days for the USA. If anyone can link proof up, that'd be great. It's actually drizzling here and it wasn't supposed to at all this early currently btw. I don't know, Allan H pretty much dispelled that myth last year. The Euro consistently has the best verification scores at any time range. Sure, it has it's own biases, but if it didn't have the initial conditions right and didn't perform well at the short range, it couldn't perform well in the mid range and so on down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 6z NAM absolutely goes crazy at 42-48..this thing keeps trending better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 MRX issued a winter storm watch for all their Smoky Mountain counties for 4-8 with up to 12 in the highest terrain. Says at least a WWA likely for their Plateau, SW VA, and NE TN counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 MRX issued a winter storm watch for all their Smoky Mountain counties for 4-8 with up to 12 in the highest terrain. Says at least a WWA likely for their Plateau, SW VA, and NE TN counties. Yep just saw that. Going to be fun to watch this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 They are calling for winds 20 mph sustained and gusts up to 35 mph with heavy snow. Might see some Blizzard conditions in some localized areas with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 06z GFS is further N at hr 33 vs 39 on the 00z, but nearly the same, slightly slower by hr 39 vs hr 45 at 00z. Much slower and way west by 45. 500mb vort is 50 miles East of CHA vs near the NC/VA coast on the 00z by the same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS and NAM snow maps are close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GSP has jumped on board with a WSW for almost all of the Mnt counties. Down below is the overnight afd. Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC406 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINAMOUNTAINS THURSDAY....LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERNCAROLINAS. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRALSOUTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...COLDER AIR WILL BEGINFILTERING INTO THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THISIS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSSPORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TENNESSEEBORDER COUNTIES. HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THEPIGEON RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...AS WELLAS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.NCZ033-048>053-162100-/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0001.130117T1200Z-130118T0500Z/AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE406 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNINGTHROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* TIMING...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. HEAVY WET SNOW MAY PULL DOWN POWER LINES IN SOME AREAS.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S BY AFTERNOON.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...QUITE AN INTERESTING FORECAST DURING THESHORT TERM...AS THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITHREGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACEDEVELOPMENT. AS MUCH AS I DOUBTED THE NAM 24 HOURS AGO...THE GFS HASCOME AROUND TO ITS SOLUTION OF MAINTAINING A RATHER INTENSE VORT MAXACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE CLOSED CIRCULATION NOT OPENING UPUNTIL IT LEAVES THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULTANT COMPACT AREA OF DPVARESULTS IN SURFACE DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO THE INTERIOR OF GEORGIA ANDSC. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FORCING (ANDMAKE NO MISTAKE...IT WILL BE VERY STRONG) WILL PASS OVER THE WESTERNCAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY THURSDAY MORNING...SPREADINGMODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THATMUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE 1-1.5 INCHES BETWEEN12Z AND 18Z.AT FIRST...THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH WARM AIR IN PLACE TO CREATE ANYP-TYPE CONCERNS. HOWEVER...AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKSACROSS CENTRAL SC...PATTERNS OF COLD AND WARM ADVECTION WILL SET UPSUCH THAT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN MTNS OFNORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO ESTABLISHA DEEP AND RATHER INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION...WITH THERISING BRANCH OF THIS CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND INTENSEPRECIP RATES SHOULD ESTABLISH A NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER OVERTHE MTNS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENN BORDER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INTHE NAM AND GFS ARE ESSENTIALLY ALL-SNOW BY 18Z ACROSS THE HIGHERELEVATIONS OF THE SW MTNS...AND ALL OF THE MTNS (INCLUDING THEVALLEYS) FROM ROUGHLY I-40 NORTH ACROSS THE TENN BORDER COUNTIES. ATTHAT POINT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG FORCING ASTHE UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OFSC DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN OTHER WORDS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASINGTHAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NCMTNS. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NC MTN ZONES WITHTHE EXCEPTION OF SRN JACKSON...TRANSYLVANIA...AND HENDERSON. WE WILLALSO JUST ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF MACON AND GRAHAM.AS A STARTING POINT...FORECAST ACCUMS WILL BE IN THE 3-6 INCHRANGE...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED SOME REFINING AS TIME GOES ON.THE PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH RAPIDLYCLEARING SKIES. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGEFROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS WILLBECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNSFROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ENOUGH THAT A WINDADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...FALLING TEMPS THROUGHOUTTHE DAY THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COOLER MINS (I.E. NEAR CLIMO)IN THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Man, was hoping it would trend a little better for the Atlanta area....is it even possible to squeeze an inch out of this system? Not likely. I'm up in dahlonega and I'm not hopeful for mby either. This looks like a wnc, east tn, and north central Nc special. Perhaps someone in nw ga can eek out a lucky inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Not likely. I'm up in dahlonega and I'm not hopeful for mby either. This looks like a wnc, east tn, and north central Nc special. Perhaps someone in nw ga can eek out a lucky inch. Yeah, I don't really see much as far as snow...maybe the Northwestern part of the metro-Marietta, Kennesaw, etc, they can get .5-1 inch. Don't really see much anywhere else in Atlanta. Hopefully, we can get a few token flakes...hopefully, with the cold air coming over the next few weeks, we can get our lucky system going . This system here looks to wallop a few people though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Clown maps look really good for NE TN & SW VA! A lot can still happen but I am starting to get excited about this system. If.....& that's a big if, this verifies score a big one for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WSW to my north and west NC mtns and in Va. RNK says light to mod accumulations possible for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Still says no to snow ... but most of the time i think they (RAH) forgets that GSO/INT are in their forecast area ... as a lot of the time they wait till the wx happens, then they forecast it lol ... anyway here is hoping all of WNC/ Northern NC/ NW NC/ Triad metro, etc lol sees some flakes ... and ty to Burger/ Jon/ str8homey/ queencity/ delta , etc for all you guys do ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It is nice to see the latest runs of the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF now all showing a simiilar scenario. By the way for those of you who cant see it, the ECMWF snow accumulation map is pretty similar to the NAM/GFS. This is not a setup for your classic winter storm in these parts with antecedent cold air in place, a great storm track, cold high pressure over the Northeast. But it does look like a setup where a closed low will move across the Southeast and actually take on a negative tilt during the day tomorrow which should induce rapid cyclogenesis off the Southeast coast. As this happens a vigorus deformation band will set up which will put many areas of TN/NC/Va in an area of strong lift with cold air winning the battle. This is not a recipe for a widespread major winter storm, but the odds are looking good that many in at least TN/NC/VA will see a period of snow. I will make a more in-depth post later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Apparently nothing too exciting here in Atlanta unless this thing goes further south and gets stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It is nice to see the latest runs of the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF now all showing a simiilar scenario. By the way for those of you who cant see it, the ECMWF snow accumulation map is pretty similar to the NAM/GFS. This is not a setup for your classic winter storm in these parts with antecedent cold air in place, a great storm track, cold high pressure over the Northeast. But it does look like a setup where a closed low will move across the Southeast and actually take on a negative tilt during the day tomorrow which should induce rapid cyclogenesis off the Southeast coast. As this happens a vigorus deformation band will set up which will put many areas of TN/NC/Va in an area of strong lift with cold air winning the battle. This is not a recipe for a widespread major winter storm, but the odds are looking good that many in at least TN/NC/VA will see a period of snow. I will make a more in-depth post later this morning. Thanks Allan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well nothing here in nw sc but that was expected, at least I picked the perfect weekend to have a cabin in the pigeon valley for 4 days!! We will be taking sleds and plenty of pics!! Happy for you guys that are really owed some snow in the mountains! For here we are getting tons of rain, ?I glanced this morning and I swear it said over 10" this month so far...but that was at 3:30am..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I double checked your map. It doesn't show a foot for Raleigh or anywhere outside of the NC mountains. Re-check your scale. Here let me spell it out for you. PAID SV MAP SHOWS 1 FOOT NEAR RDU. THE MAP I POSTED WHICH WAS NOT AN SV MAP SHOWED LESS, THUS IT WAS MORE REASONABLE. Make sense now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Great disco last night folks. Lets get this thing going! Here is to hoping for snow in the southern foothills ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Good morning folks. As promised my morning discussion with first forecast map. Will be following all day. http://www.examiner.com/article/snow-possible-thursday-night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Good morning folks. As promised my morning discussion with first forecast map. Will be following all day. http://www.examiner.com/article/snow-possible-thursday-night Nice Thanks for the update and map i'm in C but close to D lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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