January 17th-18th Winter Storm Discussion

[Thrasher Fan]

For the N GA crew.

[BIG FROSTY]

If I lived between Asheville, Boone, to Danville, maybe Richmond corridor, I'd be getting a little nervous and maybe checking out the trees around my house tomorrow.  2 to 3" per hour snow rates of wet snow is nothing to mess around with.  I don't see this lasting as long as Mar 09.  Thundersnow? Yes! For some areas. Hope everyone who gets hit enjoys the snow without the aggravation. I'm looking for mostly rain this go around in my area, unless the temps really come down more than shown.

 

Robert you have been on top of this potential storm, really enjoy your web site for all the hard work you put into it! Thanks for keeping us ahead of the storms!!!

[Marion_NC_WX]

Here's the authors' take on the low snow totals in the lee of the mountains in NC during that March 2009 event:

 

 

Apparently, they are still not sure why the northern foothills missed out on the snow.  It wasn't due to downsloping, according to their analysis.  Since BL temps are so marginal in this upcoming event as well, I must confess that I am a little worried that we might experience a similar phenomenon as occurred during this March 2009 event:  If the surface temps aren't able to cool enough, we could be staring at the remnants of melted snowflakes (i.e., rain) as they smack into the ground.

 

 

Maybe my memory is not good but it just seemed like the precip rates in the March 2009 system IMBY wasn't that heavy. I'm still inclined to think the rates and the dynamics had a lot to do with the amounts that fell along the NC/SC line and the lack of snow here in McDowell County.

[wncsnow]

If I lived between Asheville, Boone, to Danville, maybe Richmond corridor, I'd be getting a little nervous and maybe checking out the trees around my house tomorrow.  2 to 3" per hour snow rates of wet snow is nothing to mess around with.  I don't see this lasting as long as Mar 09.  Thundersnow? Yes! For some areas. Hope everyone who gets hit enjoys the snow without the aggravation. I'm looking for mostly rain this go around in my area, unless the temps really come down more than shown.

 

Do you think the same phenomena that left much of the northern and central foothills with little accumulation in the March 1st ULL could once again cut down potential on anything significant along the escarpment?

[LithiaWx]

Any sounding info for the North Georgia area? Allan's map shows an inch or so but I'm wondering if it would actually be snow.

For us.. Yes. Hour z45 is a clear snow sounding. Looks like if we get the deformation band the gfs shows we will get a short period if snow on the tail end.

[BIG FROSTY]

FWIW---CMC not too snowy east of the mountains!

[tnweathernut]

FWIW---CMC not too snowy east of the mountains!

I hate looking at maps on my iPhone, but it looks like the NAM and GFS for the mountains of NC and NE TN at a quick glance

[IWC]

Robert you have been on top of this potential storm, really enjoy your web site for all the hard work you put into it! Thanks for keeping us ahead of the storms!!!

Hey Frosty, I have to agree. Robert has always done a great job on the storms in the SE.

[Wow]

Not sure if you remember it but 2/19/99 could be similar, also.

 

Yes I do remember that one. Got a nice little thump of snow out of it. Got out of Econ class for that one.

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

since folks are mentioning the march 09 storm as an analog... there are some big differences in the thermal profile (Delta will back me up on this because he was here in Greenville at the time)

 

I remember the March of 09 storm and cold-core well because I probably spent 20-hours a day for 5 days looking at models prior to that storm and forecasting it for the Upstate of SC ... the 09 cold-core was way more expansive than this one is projected and was quite a bit colder due to the 500mb vort being stronger (-2C to -4C at 5000ft - at least in the Upstate of SC)... interesting to note that areas of northeast GA (Toccoa area) which were around 0C to 1C at 850mb (warm pocket) got nothing other than a cold rain during the 09 storm

 

while it may be a good analog as far as the ULL track, there was also a weak surface wedge present in March of 09 which helped with colder low-level temps in CAD areas

 

the heavy rates and ULL track do look similar, but one noticeable difference I can see with this storm compared to March of 09 is the cold-core is less expansive and not as cold...

 

also, as "Alchemist" made mention of, there was some initial snow enhancement for a short time at 3000ft-5000ft or so in the form of east to west winds upsloping near the areas of Chimney Rock, Asheville, Hendersonville and Saluda NC as the 850mb low closed off due south of the these areas and wrapped in a ESE to E wind into the cold air... had to be some impressive   rates in those areas as the 850mb low shifted ENE and some slightly colder air wrapped in at 5000ft

[Huffwx]

CMC is always warm, not weenie talk.

[HKY_WX]

Here's the authors' take on the low snow totals in the lee of the mountains in NC during that March 2009 event:

 

 

Apparently, they are still not sure why the northern foothills missed out on the snow.  It wasn't due to downsloping, according to their analysis.  Since BL temps are so marginal in this upcoming event as well, I must confess that I am a little worried that we might experience a similar phenomenon as occurred during this March 2009 event:  If the surface temps aren't able to cool enough, we could be staring at the remnants of melted snowflakes (i.e., rain) as they smack into the ground.

We still had like 7 inches from that storm.

[BIG FROSTY]

I hate looking at maps on my iPhone, but it looks like the NAM and GFS for the mountains of NC and NE TN at a quick glance

 

 

Yes, It looks good for mountains and your area in NE TN

[Shawn]

00z GFS Soundings for Columbia, SC:

 

During precip (towards the end):

 

Precip has pretty much ended:

 

 

00z NAM Raw Text (precip stops after 48):

 

 Station ID: KCAE Lat:   33.94 Long:  -81.11                                                        
 NAM Model Run:  0Z 16JAN 2013
  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
                Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
   0 01/16 00Z   66     56     168       2    0.00  0.00    566    582   11.4  -7.5 1017  39       334SCT334    0.0   15.0
   3 01/16 03Z   64     59     159       7    0.00  0.00    565    580   11.8  -7.8 1017  54       370BKN283    0.0   15.0
   6 01/16 06Z   61     60     173      11    0.00  0.00    566    580   12.3  -7.8 1016  39       150SCT150    0.0   15.0
   9 01/16 09Z   61     60     183      10    0.00  0.00    565    579   12.1  -8.1 1016 100       000OVC093    0.0   13.4
  12 01/16 12Z   61     61     196       9    0.00  0.00    565    579   12.2  -8.7 1016 100       000OVC011    0.0    0.0
  15 01/16 15Z   65     60     212      12    0.00  0.00    565    580   12.1  -8.3 1017  88       063BKN123    0.0   15.0
  18 01/16 18Z   67     58     225      12    0.00  0.00    565    578   11.1  -7.4 1016  95 -RA   061BKN192    0.0   14.4
  21 01/16 21Z   63     60     211       9    0.11  0.00    564    577   11.4  -8.2 1015 100 -RA   040OVC144    0.0    8.3
  24 01/17 00Z   62     60     207       7    0.05  0.00    564    578   11.9  -8.7 1015  94       085BKN088    0.0   15.0
  27 01/17 03Z   59     58     209       5    0.00  0.00    564    577   11.5  -8.5 1015   0          CLR       0.0   14.2
  30 01/17 06Z   58     58     187       3    0.00  0.00    564    576   11.0  -8.5 1014  10       014FEW102    0.0   12.9
  33 01/17 09Z   59     59     178       5    0.02  0.02    563    574   11.2  -9.3 1013  82       084BKN154    0.0   16.1
  36 01/17 12Z   59     59     185       8    0.00  0.00    562    573   12.4 -10.5 1012  78       049BKN062    0.0   10.0
  39 01/17 15Z   66     61     185      11    0.00  0.00    561    572   11.2 -11.7 1012 100       099OVC134    0.0   15.1
  42 01/17 18Z   68     61     191      15    0.08  0.07    560    567   10.7 -12.6 1008 100 TSRA  022OVC308    0.0    2.5
  45 01/17 21Z   60     57     240      12    0.41  0.00    556    563    5.3 -14.8 1007 100 RA    013OVC176    0.0    3.8
  48 01/18 00Z   49     46     309      12    0.17  0.01    546    555    1.3 -10.0 1010 100 -RA   009OVC115    0.0    9.4

 

None looks good for Columbia for anything Wintry.

[BIG FROSTY]

CMC is always warm, not weenie talk.

 

 

Yes, Just thought I would throw it out there!

[tnweathernut]

Yes, Just thought I would throw it out there!

I am glad you did. Most modeling coming inboard with a nice little system for some. Question is..........what will the euro show and I'd it doesn't fully come on board are we beyond its skill in being under 3 days? Some would say turn to short range models. I say I'd rather have the euro in my camp irregardless of time.

[FoothillsNC]

here's some images from March 09, just for comparison's sake. Back then, the upper low was 546dm core in Missouri Bootheel then deepened to 3 contours and 540 at its core as it rounded the trough in Georgia.  Overall, this one coming up isn't progged as deep cutoff, consequently it can't get as cold as that 540 core. But the overall way the cutoff goes from Texas and then curves into central GA and offshore NC is pretty good analog still.

 

 

 

The deformation band forecast from 48 hours on GFS back then was very close to this one, just not as extensive. UVV is actually similar, but this next storm is probably just east of that 2009 storm and hits central NC to eastern VA harder on the new progs.  We'll see if the models make a deeper cutoff or keep it closed even longer..they could still. 2009 was substantially colder as well on the backside, but oddly enough the temps under deformation banding was barely supportive, like this one. We'll see.

 

 

2009:

 

 

2013:

 

[Stovepipe]

Yes, Just thought I would throw it out there!

I am glad you did. Most modeling coming inboard with a nice little system for some. Question is..........what will the euro show and I'd it doesn't fully come on board are we beyond its skill in being under 3 days? Some would say turn to short range models. I say I'd rather have the euro in my camp irregardless of time.

Gotta admit, it would be nice to have the Doc on my team with this. Twill be fun to watch regardless.

[bhamwx205]

I'm showing the samething Jon.

Where do you get the text data

[packbacker]

The snowfall map for the 4km HWRF is similar to the GFS, roughly 2-4" for central NC, close to 6 at NC border towards RIC.

[GaffneyPeach]

 2009 was substantially colder as well on the backside, but oddly enough the temps under deformation banding was barely supportive, like this one. We'll see.

That's what I said about my roof during that storm!

[Jon]

Where do you get the text data

 

For free here: http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm but it takes a while after the model to complete running to upload the new txt file.

 

I get mine from Accuweather Pro as the model is coming out.

[bhamwx205]

For free here: http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm but it takes a while after the model to complete running to upload the new txt file.

I get mine from Accuweather Pro as the model is coming out.

Cool thanks

[griteater]

Where do you get the text data

 

The soundings come out pretty quick during the model run from Plymouth - http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html

[Jon]

Euro is rolling...lets see what he brings...

[dsaur]

here's some images from March 09, just for comparison's sake. Back then, the upper low was 546dm core in Missouri Bootheel then deepened to 3 contours and 540 at its core as it rounded the trough in Georgia.  Overall, this one coming up isn't progged as deep cutoff, consequently it can't get as cold as that 540 core. But the overall way the cutoff goes from Texas and then curves into central GA and offshore NC is pretty good analog still.

 

AnimationGFS500mbMarch1_2_2009Snowstorm.gif

 

 

The deformation band forecast from 48 hours on GFS back then was very close to this one, just not as extensive. UVV is actually similar, but this next storm is probably just east of that 2009 storm and hits central NC to eastern VA harder on the new progs.  We'll see if the models make a deeper cutoff or keep it closed even longer..they could still. 2009 was substantially colder as well on the backside, but oddly enough the temps under deformation banding was barely supportive, like this one. We'll see.

 

 

2009:

gfsdefamation48.gif

 

 

2013:

now.gif

The one two years before came thru around Columbus too, if I remember correctly.  With the same results, at least around here.  And colder also, but maybe not as much?  I know the ground temps were ridiculous, but the heavy fall gave us some sticking for the afternoon, or at least 3 or 4 hours. Tony

[Jon]

Euro stronger @ 36 with the sfc low at 1012mb over GA...wetter at 42 with lots of QPF NW SC, W NC...

[Jon]

@48hrs...plows CLT with QPF but not cold enough, although colder at 850mb slightly, more of NC has a chance this run....northern foothills and mountains get some snow at hr54, 850s crash by 54 over most of NC but it's probably a cold chasing moisture scenario.

[packbacker]

Euro stronger @ 36 with the sfc low at 1012mb over GA...wetter at 42 with lots of QPF NW SC, W NC...

It's colder than 12z but not quite as good as NAM/GFS, probably a sloppy inch for RDU, VA/NC border probably a few inches.

[AirNelson39]

Lots of QPF for WNC but only "some" snow for mountains? Are you saying euro is saying mostly rain for mountains then??

@48hrs...plows CLT with QPF but not cold enough, although colder at 850mb slightly, more of NC has a chance this run....northern foothills and mountains get some snow at hr54, 850s crash by 54 over most of NC but it's probably a cold chasing moisture scenario.