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January 17th-18th Winter Storm Discussion

BullCityWx

By BullCityWx,
in Southeastern States

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

I double checked your map. It doesn't show a foot for Raleigh or anywhere outside of the NC mountains. Re-check your scale.

 

 

I don't think burger is saying the SV maps are showing a foot for RDU.  That was a different snow map he was talking about.  That's the reason he said this is more reasonable when he posted the SV map.  This is the way I took it atleast.

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

Uhhhhh, pretty sure he was referring to a different map than the SV map.

 

The soundings show he was incorrect. Unless the models really change 1-3" is about all you can expect for the Raleigh area.

 

You can't just go by the maps alone. You need to look at the soundings. Sometimes you have to be conservative with the maps and take off a few inches, too.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Text extraction for raleigh :(

 

0z gfs

  39 01/17 03Z   59     59     232       7    0.00  0.00    562    573   10.7 -10.8 1013.1  58       006SCT030 121FEW141 366FEW420   60     59  0.5    0.0  42 01/17 06Z   58     58     308       6    0.01  0.00    561    572    9.7 -10.8 1013.4  73 -RA   007BKN050 133FEW157 370FEW423   60     58  0.0    0.0  45 01/17 09Z   52     50       0       9    0.01  0.00    558    571    8.7 -12.0 1014.5  93 -RA   014BKN075    CLR    416FEW268   58     52  3.1    0.0  48 01/17 12Z   47     40       5       8    0.00  0.00    556    571    7.7 -13.2 1016.7  92 -RA   025BKN078    CLR    425SCT269   58     47 16.8    0.0  51 01/17 15Z   44     37      18      10    0.06  0.00    556    571    6.8 -12.6 1018.7  98 -RA   048BKN103 144BKN215 361BKN414   47     43 18.4    0.0  54 01/17 18Z   38     35       0       9    0.30  0.00    552    568    3.7 -12.6 1019.5  99 RA    051BKN105 127BKN219 323BKN426   47     38  3.8    0.0  57 01/17 21Z   38     36       1      11    0.36  0.00    549    565    3.4 -13.6 1018.8 100 RA    072BKN116 116BKN228 263OVC446   39     38  1.0    0.0  60 01/18 00Z   39     37      12      11    0.58  0.00    548    565    3.0 -16.3 1020.8 100 RA    077BKN115 117BKN230 247OVC419   39     38  0.5    0.0  63 01/18 03Z   39     37      10       7    0.17  0.00    546    564    0.7 -14.9 1023.0 100 RA    075SCT094 123OVC232 233BKN314   39     38  0.9    0.0  66 01/18 06Z   38     36      18       7    0.00  0.00    546    565   -0.5 -16.2 1023.9  98 -RA      FEW    143BKN229 233BKN312   39     38  1.6    0.0  69 01/18 09Z   34     32     356       8    0.00  0.00    546    567   -0.2 -15.6 1025.9  32          CLR    178FEW232 232SCT259   38     34  5.9    0.0  72 01/18 12Z   31     29       0       6    0.00  0.00    546    569    0.8 -15.5 1029.0  16          CLR    179FEW233 233FEW259   38     31 10.4    0.0

That's not the last run? I have this

                                            00Z JAN16   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK   FRI 00Z 18-JAN   4.1     0.9    1012      94      98    0.62     561     552    FRI 06Z 18-JAN   0.9    -2.8    1020      99      56    0.51     557     540
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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

Not related to the thread, but the cold air after this system doesn't look as deep as it had been. 850 temps over Knoxville have gone from a possible -22C a day ago to -18C. This next ULL has something to do with it. I'll bet if it went further south the next trough would have been sharper and further south, too. Plus, now that this system is more energetic, it's going to be harder to see the trough around the 22nd.

 

Interesting methinks.

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chapelhillwx

chapelhillwx

Posted
Posted

GFS snow maps put down almost a foot around RDU. If Brick gets a foot of snow out of this I'm never coming back to the boards. 

 

.

The soundings show he was incorrect. Unless the models really change 1-3" is about all you can expect for the Raleigh area.

 

You can't just go by the maps alone. You need to look at the soundings. Sometimes you have to be conservative with the maps and take off a few inches, too.

 

Again, it's pretty obvious that he was making this comment in jest. Burger has probably figured out that NAM clown maps are not to be taken verbatim by this point.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

That's not the last run? I have this

                                            00Z JAN16   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK   FRI 00Z 18-JAN   4.1     0.9    1012      94      98    0.62     561     552    FRI 06Z 18-JAN   0.9    -2.8    1020      99      56    0.51     557     540

 

 

I'm showing the samething Jon.

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted

That's not the last run? I have this

                                            00Z JAN16   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK   FRI 00Z 18-JAN   4.1     0.9    1012      94      98    0.62     561     552    FRI 06Z 18-JAN   0.9    -2.8    1020      99      56    0.51     557     540

whops , your right. sorry. 

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

.

 

Again, it's pretty obvious that he was making this comment in jest. Burger has probably figured out that NAM clown maps are not to be taken verbatim by this point.

 

If it was then I stand corrected.

 

Something else I thought is that over East TN we've had a lot of cold rain. I'm guessing it might have lowered the soil temperatures a bit from the warm spell we had earlier. Five inches of rain at 38 degrees F ought to do something to the soil temps.

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

The March 09 event is becoming a good analog for this storm, though a little weaker with the ULL.  Overall, I do like the idea of a nice deformation band setting up over the same areas.

 

Would be great to get some thundersnow again. ;)

 

2yELN.gif

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

The March 09 event is becoming a good analog for this storm, though a little weaker with the ULL.  Overall, I do like the idea of a nice deformation band setting up over the same areas.

Do you have a link to a pretty deep analysis of that storm? I can't find anything substantial other than a snow map and maybe the trace of the low...

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

Well, I will take my 9 inches again in a heartbeat, but I think we're going to come up about 5 degrees F short of where we were in 2009.

The March 09 event is becoming a good analog for this storm, though a little weaker with the ULL.  Overall, I do like the idea of a nice deformation band setting up over the same areas.

 

Would be great to get some thundersnow again. ;)

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

Well, I will take my 9 inches again in a heartbeat, but I think we're going to come up about 5 degrees F short of where we were in 2009.

 

No, we def won't have the sfc temps where we want and it'll be more rain than snow, but I think we'll see something here.  Whether it's measurable, eh.. we'll see.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

Fishel is thinking rain will end as snow Thursday nigh with the chance of limited accumulations on grassy and elevated surface.

 

 

At this point I think that's a good call.  The nam and gfs were a giant step in the right direction but I personally would like to see this continue to show up on the models on tomorrows runs.  With the BL issues this is a true thread the needle situation for our area.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

If I lived between Asheville, Boone, to Danville, maybe Richmond corridor, I'd be getting a little nervous and maybe checking out the trees around my house tomorrow.  2 to 3" per hour snow rates of wet snow is nothing to mess around with.  I don't see this lasting as long as Mar 09.  Thundersnow? Yes! For some areas. Hope everyone who gets hit enjoys the snow without the aggravation. I'm looking for mostly rain this go around in my area, unless the temps really come down more than shown.

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WhiteoutWX

WhiteoutWX

Posted
Posted

This is about as good as I see this getting since we are now within 36 hours. Temps aren't going to change drastically enough to give significant snow to anyone outside the mountains in NC (barring maybe the northern border counties). With that said I think areas in the piedmont could definitely see a changeover at the end for a few hours, which would already be the most snow we have seen in almost two years now.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2009/1-2March2009Snow/1-2MarchSnow.html

Another good one. I don't think KTRI got anything from that one

 

Here's the authors' take on the low snow totals in the lee of the mountains in NC during that March 2009 event:

 

The snow level lowered sufficiently so that a transition of precipitation types occurred at most locations outside the mountains.  One notable exception was the North Carolina Foothills where the RUC13 925 mb temperature analysis and forecasts (not shown) indicated that a small area of relatively warm temperatures persisted throughout the afternoon.  The slightly warmer temperatures delayed the onset of accumulating snow and contributed to the smaller snow totals depicted just east of the mountains in Fig. 1.   Rain changed to snow at HKY around 1800 UTC, but it changed to rain again around 2000 UTC when the surface temperature increased to 36o F.  Rain continued at HKY until 0047 UTC on 2 March when snow returned.

 

The origin of the warmer air in the foothills was not clearly understood.  Wind direction in the vertical veered from northeast to south from the surface to 500 mb and above, so an obvious downslope wind component to produce warming by subsidence did not exist.  An untested hypothesis suggested that the predominant cooling in the cold air damming occurred farther to the east near the axis of the low-level jet in Fig. 10.  The cooling progressed slowly along the foothills and did not lower surface temperatures close to freezing until late in the precipitation event.

 

Apparently, they are still not sure why the northern foothills missed out on the snow.  It wasn't due to downsloping, according to their analysis.  Since BL temps are so marginal in this upcoming event as well, I must confess that I am a little worried that we might experience a similar phenomenon as occurred during this March 2009 event:  If the surface temps aren't able to cool enough, we could be staring at the remnants of melted snowflakes (i.e., rain) as they smack into the ground.

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