SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 this is a cross section between AVL and greenville,nc. looks like it's gonna be kind of tricky to get snow outside of the mountains west of I77. hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What does this mean? At face value, it says the air closer to the ground would melt the wintry weather and make it liquid. but.. heavy rates.. could potentially cool the air closer to the surface down and allow it to regain the form of snow. I wouldn't say it's a no go for CLT by any means on the last NAM run and that sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 At face value, it says the air closer to the ground would melt the wintry weather and make it liquid. but.. heavy rates.. could potentially cool the air closer to the surface down and allow it to regain the form of snow. I wouldn't say it's a no go for CLT by any means on the last NAM run and that sounding. That was at the end of the event....after the dynamic cooling. it would be extremely difficult for ice crystals to survive that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This setup is very similar to the march 2009 storm. The lee warm trough was there on that one as well. It's essentially a situation where the mountains block the cold air advection and by the time the cold air aloft rushes in the heavier precip has focused further to the east. Leaving the escarpment in a snow hole. It happens sometimes. The setup is almost identical. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us0301.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What I don't understand is why eastern TN that has elevation much lower than Boone gets so much more snow given the 00z NAM? I feel like the snow maps depict the mountain range to be further west than it actually is. Anyone else notice this?? One would think Boone would have much more snow than the foothills of TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SW VA and S VA get a good thump of snow from 45-54hrs if taken verbatim. Soundings from those areas are below freezing all the way up. Seems to be trending slightly north each run so far. don't think the precip will get that far north. maybe the nc. va border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That is a "tree snapper" as depicted by the 0z NAM...............would be too much too fast... Imagine half of what is depicted on Allan's maps verifying, due to overblown QPF/cold/whatever else could possibly go wrong. Even then, the trees in this area would take a beating. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just looked at the 00z NAM. Model definitely shows a 3-5 hour period or so of deformation band snow sweeping east across NC Thursday evening. The RDU sounding at 3z Friday is certainly snow with the column below freezing and saturation in the dendritic growth region. Taken literally and not the NAM snow accumulation algorithm, I would imagine a 1-3 inch type snow as the rain changes to snow. Obvoiusly intriguing but woudl love for the GFS to show this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelvis Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 At face value, it says the air closer to the ground would melt the wintry weather and make it liquid. but.. heavy rates.. could potentially cool the air closer to the surface down and allow it to regain the form of snow. I wouldn't say it's a no go for CLT by any means on the last NAM run and that sounding. Thank you for your response! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Love the lee side screw job in the foothills ! Great run for wnc... I don't know about "great." The 18Z was a bit better that this 00Z run for AVL downtown (and the airport). Right now, the best snows are really along the TN/NC state line, a la the Appalachian Trail. Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS continues to hold its ground with a further south run, but not nearly as wet. So, take a blend of the two and you get a moister GFS with a southward displacement of the snow axis, from central Haywood over to central McDowell counties. TN line gets snow, but not as much as the NAM shows. East TN and Knoxville area get a dusting. Let's see if the GFS can play this out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 don't think the precip will get that far north. maybe the nc. va border That's why I said taken verbatim; It would be snow if the precip shield made it into SW and S VA, but yeah I'm not counting on much out of this anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For the triangle I remain skeptical. I'd take the 16/00z NAM for sure right now, given the situation, if it were a perfect prog. I have been burned too many times by cold chasing moisture, and relying on dynamic cooling to result in a ptype change. As I see it, I'd prefer either a strengthening 850 hpa low (as opposed to weakening), and as always a good cold source HP to our north. I always mention it, because its always important for us here. With this being said, I think some token flakes could definitely work out, and will consider anything else a bonus. Gonna come down to a nowcast and obs-fest for us here in the triangle. That being said, if I lived north of the triangle, I'd be encouraged by today's runs. Great to have something to track if nothing else. Best of luck to everybody in the nc mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Off to the races with the good old GFS....predictions?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This setup is very similar to the march 2009 storm. The lee warm trough was there on that one as well. It's essentially a situation where the mountains block the cold air advection and by the time the cold air aloft rushes in the heavier precip has focused further to the east. Leaving the escarpment in a snow hole. It happens sometimes. The setup is almost identical. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us0301.php would be impressive if we have a 09 repeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 4 closed contours (my maps are 30m apart) at hour 30 over NC LA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Off to the races with the good old GFS....predictions?? faster, further north...trends toward NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it appears to be a touch stronger than the NAM, let's see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Still 4 closed near JAN hour 36...starting to go a bit NEG tilted...*starting* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A little further north at hr42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS also quicker but looks colder compared to 18z @48 it's a snow storm in the mountains of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Maybe a little colder at 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hours 51-54 will be snow from CAE to RDU and west if there is moisture there. Hr 51 looks nice. 1008mb off coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This thing is trucking @51 it's taking the NAM path and going close to right under RDU...850's look good for most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks RDU could get smacked pretty good if this is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 850mb low sitting over eastern NC at hour 48. Generally a great sign for western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 00z GFS gives most of NC and as Jon pointed out down to CAE a dusting....points north and west fair better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just like Nam, gonna give mtns and parts of NC TN and espeacilly VA some love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think it's an improvement but wont know until the soundings come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 thunderstorm? 0z nam text extrat for charlotte 33 01/17 09Z 57 57 68 3 0.07 0.00 560 571 10.5 -11.0 1013 100 RA 009OVC162 0.0 3.0 36 01/17 12Z 54 53 58 8 0.11 0.04 559 570 9.9 -11.9 1013 100 -TSRA 011OVC145 0.0 13.6 39 01/17 15Z 47 45 55 13 0.06 0.00 557 569 9.6 -13.1 1014 100 -RA 011OVC138 0.0 11.2 42 01/17 18Z 42 41 32 14 0.29 0.06 556 565 10.0 -14.3 1011 100 TSRA 010OVC339 0.0 3.3 45 01/17 21Z 41 39 10 17 0.66 0.02 552 561 4.7 -12.1 1011 100 -TSRA 015OVC233 0.0 2.4 48 01/18 00Z 38 36 17 19 0.38 0.00 543 553 0.3 -20.2 1013 100 -RA 013OVC138 0.0 8.4 51 01/18 03Z 35 32 2 13 0.23 0.01 540 557 -2.7 -19.5 1020 70 330BKN122 0.0 15.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS snow maps put down almost a foot around RDU. If Brick gets a foot of snow out of this I'm never coming back to the boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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