HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The NAM is a terrible model. I will be interested when the 4km wrf comes into range. Its a much better hi-res model and will pick up on mesoscale features more accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The NAM is a terrible model. I will be interested when the 4km wrf comes into range. Its a much better hi-res model and will pick up on mesoscale features more accurately. So Brandon are you leaning towards a more GFS looking solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM is stronger @27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The RPM doesn't even bring the precip shield to ATL really.....go figure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM is stronger @27 I think the trend is clear that this is going to a stronger vort than the models suggested a few days ago. But i think it's a normal model bias in these situations resolving itself over time. But the NAM may be right in the sense a broken clock is right twice/day. If u want to catch the mesoscale banding and dynamics, the WRF hi res variations are usually much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Nam seems stronger & a little more neutral @ 30,36 vs the 18Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0z NAM is looking toasty at hr 36. Precip about to go boom............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Doesn't look like snow will fall for East TN except the mountains with the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This is gonna be a funky run. @42 it's going negative tilt a little south and not as strong... not as much QPF with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Def not an expert & just starting to really read the models but, to my untrained eye, if the nam verifies someone in the Mnts is really going to get pounded! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 850's are crashing between 36-42. hope it's in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well @45 here comes the moisture @48 it goes nuts on the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This is gonna be a funky run. @42 it's going negative tilt a little south and not as strong... not as much QPF with it. It looks like there is plenty of QPF...every frame has a huge swath of 1"+ for 6hr qpf, unlike the 18z...this run looks wetter unless I'm missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Mountains get pounded this run for a good 6-9 hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Big frosty/Powesrtroke congrats. Your getting licked pretty hard 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It looks like there is plenty of QPF...every frame has a huge swath of 1"+ for 6hr qpf, unlike the 18z...this run looks wetter unless I'm missing something It looks like some of the heavy QPF moves away from GA and the precip shield goes further north into Virginia, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well NC folks will be happy with this run. Even gives snow under some super heavy precip in CLT...looks like RDU might even get in the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's a real shame, I would love to see this run about 6 hours slower, that would probably make a huge difference as this run is cold chasing moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Umm, WOW on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's a real shame, I would love to see this run about 6 hours slower, that would probably make a huge difference as this run is cold chasing moisture... yeah :\ if anything this trended faster...good, yet bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This run goes nuts on the mountains. It even paints 6+ inches for KTRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Where's the QPF? Seems like a pretty decent deformation band back into MS. Surface doesn't seem to match upper levels, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Congrats RDU that low goes right underneath you and SV snow map has you with good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wish I had better news than this sounding: Date: 45 hour Eta valid 21Z THU 17 JAN 13Station: 35.33,-81.33Latitude: 35.33Longitude: -81.33-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 100 SFC 981 253 4.8 3.9 94 0.9 4.4 14 18 279.5 280.3 278.4 293.6 5.16 2 950 518 2.6 2.4 99 0.1 2.5 14 30 279.8 280.6 278.1 293.0 4.79 3 900 954 1.5 1.2 98 0.3 1.3 30 41 283.0 283.8 279.5 296.0 4.62 4 850 1415 2.1 2.1 100 0.0 2.1 52 22 288.4 289.3 282.7 303.3 5.25 5 800 1908 4.3 4.3 100 0.0 4.3 186 14 295.7 296.9 287.0 314.7 6.51 6 750 2431 1.3 1.2 100 0.0 1.3 218 26 297.9 298.9 286.9 314.4 5.59 7 700 2984 -1.6 -1.7 99 0.1 -1.7 220 35 300.7 301.6 287.1 315.2 4.81 8 650 3572 -3.9 -4.3 97 0.4 -4.1 206 48 304.6 305.4 288.0 317.7 4.29 9 600 4201 -6.7 -7.4 95 0.7 -7.0 197 55 308.4 309.0 288.7 319.8 3.65 10 550 4876 -9.9 -10.8 93 0.9 -10.2 193 65 312.4 312.9 289.4 322.1 3.05 11 500 5607 -13.3 -14.5 90 1.2 -13.7 190 73 316.8 317.3 290.3 325.0 2.48 12 450 6400 -19.3 -20.9 87 1.6 -19.8 187 75 318.9 319.2 290.1 324.3 1.60 13 400 7263 -26.2 -29.9 71 3.7 -26.9 189 83 320.9 321.1 289.9 323.7 0.80 14 350 8216 -32.2 -46.1 24 13.8 -33.4 195 95 325.3 325.3 290.6 326.0 0.18 15 300 9286 -39.7 -64.5 5 24.9 -40.6 205 102 329.5 329.5 291.6 329.6 0.02 16 250 10509 -48.1 213 108 334.6 17 200 11946 -56.8 210 103 342.8 18 150 13752 -59.5 229 106 367.6 19 100 16253 -65.8 227 85 400.6 TRP 0 WND 0 Date: 48 hour Eta valid 0Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: 35.33,-81.33Latitude: 35.33Longitude: -81.33-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 122 SFC 983 260 2.3 1.2 92 1.2 1.8 355 17 276.8 277.5 275.8 288.4 4.23 2 950 536 0.6 0.5 99 0.1 0.6 9 34 277.8 278.5 276.3 289.3 4.18 3 900 969 -0.3 -0.4 99 0.1 -0.3 22 47 281.2 281.9 278.0 292.7 4.13 4 850 1426 -0.4 -0.4 100 0.1 -0.4 16 42 285.8 286.5 280.5 298.1 4.36 5 800 1911 -1.0 -1.1 99 0.1 -1.0 25 33 290.1 290.9 282.5 302.8 4.41 6 750 2426 -1.5 -1.5 100 0.0 -1.4 33 13 295.0 295.8 284.7 308.5 4.58 7 700 2974 -3.9 -3.9 100 0.0 -4.0 340 11 298.1 298.9 285.4 310.4 4.08 8 650 3555 -7.8 -7.9 100 0.1 -7.8 275 9 300.1 300.7 285.3 310.0 3.25 9 600 4172 -12.3 -12.4 99 0.1 -12.3 222 18 301.9 302.4 285.2 309.6 2.47 10 550 4831 -17.4 -19.7 82 2.4 -18.0 193 24 303.5 303.7 284.6 308.1 1.45 11 500 5537 -21.4 -35.2 28 13.8 -23.4 188 27 307.0 307.0 284.7 308.3 0.38 12 450 6311 -22.7 -51.7 5 29.0 -25.4 197 38 314.7 314.7 287.1 315.0 0.07 13 400 7169 -26.1 -55.3 5 29.2 -28.4 198 60 321.1 321.1 289.2 321.3 0.05 14 350 8127 -30.3 -61.7 3 31.4 -32.2 201 77 327.8 327.8 291.1 327.9 0.03 15 300 9206 -37.5 -65.9 4 28.4 -38.7 206 85 332.5 332.5 292.4 332.6 0.02 16 250 10444 -44.9 -75.8 2 30.9 -45.6 220 87 339.4 339.4 294.1 339.4 0.01 17 200 11903 -54.4 -73.9 7 19.5 -54.7 215 72 346.6 346.6 295.8 346.6 0.01 18 150 13724 -59.5 -73.3 15 13.9 -59.6 232 83 367.7 367.7 300.1 367.7 0.01 19 100 16231 -64.3 -84.8 4 20.5 -64.5 234 86 403.5 403.5 305.7 403.5 0.00TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 QPF does look GROSSLY underdone this run for sure. but, we shall see...I think its placement of the SFC low is also too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Congrats RDU that low goes right underneath you and SV snow map has you with good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 All of VA gets hammered and most of northern NC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I bet the MA folks are going nuts, it pounds Richmond/NoVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Over an inch of QPF in the mountains... wow, even half of that is a lot of snow.. But the snowmaps continue to suggest that there will be little to no snow in the foothills.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's hard to get a zoom in on this, but it looks great for the mountains. East TN not so much. This _maybe_ 1" for Knoxville if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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