CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This really can only come so far..I wouldn't get too excited NW of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think this NAM is a step back but it's the NAM, it blows with small placements of s/w features. Will await the others. SREF is eye opening, cannot remember the last time I had probs for 8 and 12...lol Off to do errands, can someone keep us up to date on the RGEM and GFS on this thread? I won't be back until 1130 but will be reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't like the NAM at all..being honest. I think it's a step back from the 6z. Will await other guidance, but. really? looks like more snow, but yeah lets see what GFS/EURO bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This really can only come so far..I wouldn't get too excited NW of the Cape.It wants to snow now. Heading into one of those stretches. It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM looks almost identical to 6z, but maybe 25 miles NW. If I was the cape or SE mass I'd be very interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This really can only come so far..I wouldn't get too excited NW of the Cape. I agree couldn't be more shocked at those probs. But wow... can only hope its onto something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Stay the course ...STC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm not expecting much here, 1-3" is fine as I was not expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Agree with Saki, compared to 6z, the heavy precip is ever so slightly shifted SE, but the vortmax in the south looks stronger..so negligible differences. I'd like to see the foreign models come aboard a bit more, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm not expecting much here, 1-3" is fine as I was not expecting much.Im expecting at least 1-3 here. You should be thinking higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 See to me at 5h it looks like an improvement. Sure there is less northern interaction but I still think it looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Stay the course ...STC You'll be lucky to see a dusting-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You'll be lucky to see a dusting-1"Youve had a rough winter forecasting, if I were you I'd hold off posting things like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 FWIW NAM sim radar at 45 is sick for the cape...verbatim would get several inches. Maybe an 1" back to 128 or BOS area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We'll see what the GFS does, but it really can only go so far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Gut says significant storm se ma, islands, cape. Advisory se of a bos pvd line. Wsw near bridges? Oes enhanced totals. Cold air over warm water and good wind direction. I would even have concerns outer cape for mixing if it comes far enough nw. Sref really perks me up with its potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 those are pretty impressive lets see what the rest of 12z does theres going to be a sharp cutoff somewhere Those are high probs at BOS. 45-50% of 8"? Wow. Even 10-20% of 12".Can't tell exact %'s on phone but impressive nontheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Similar to 12/29 with respect to s/w intensification issues on guidance. Only difference is this storm has strong incoming CAA to contend with. I could see the cape doing well. NW of 95 will be tough IMO. No chance here on this one, I am watching all the pieces rounding the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm not locking that in by any means lets see 12z rest of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We'll see what the GFS does, but it really can only go so far NW. Scott, perhaps a stupid question but are some models showing an IVT back towards the low over the lakes, is thats whats causing the light snows all the way back here? A few nam runs seem to hint at a weak one, or maybe its just the arctic boundary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM looked pretty good for SE MA, CC, and the islands. 45h panel. Upper right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Scott, perhaps a stupid question but are some models showing an IVT back towards the low over the lakes, is thats whats causing the light snows all the way back here? A few nam runs seem to hint at a weak one, or maybe its just the arctic boundary? No Inverted trough. Basically the snowshield is allowed to bend back a bit and that's what models are doing. But like I said..this really can only go so far. I wouldn't get your hopes up in BDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For laughs, SREF Plume averages (not including todays snow) HYA 5+ BOS 3.5 PVC 4.5 MVY 5 ACK 6 (large clustering around 8") ORH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 We'll see what the GFS does, but it really can only go so far NW. I despise the srefs like Seinfeld hated Newman. I feel like they are yesterday's news. Normally I'd say the nam is onto the new trend but this is so finite and the nam so terrible at s/w placement I'm waiting for the gfs and rgem. The only way it becomes a bigger deal is with an earlier phase. The energy out by Chicago this run turns east causing a slightly later phase hence the slight shift se. Could just be the nam stinking, but if the gfs does the same I think we can conclude the srefs were a little behind. If the gfs stays along the earlier course toss the nam. I think it can come far enough NW to smoke se New England. But it has work to do. Like I said slight weenie deflation on the 12z nam for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No Inverted trough. Basically the snowshield is allowed to bend back a bit and that's what models are doing. But like I said..this really can only go so far. I wouldn't get your hopes up in BDR. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 One SREF member gives like a 15-25" snowfall (22" at BDL!), so that's obviously skewing the mean a bit. So probably take all those numbers down about 25% to get better average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Some 12z NAM QPF totals TAN - 0.20" CHH - 0.48" MVY - 0.42" ACK - 0.64" EWB - 0.30" PVD - 0.19" OWB - 0.09" BOS - 0.07" ORH - 0.02" BDL - 0.03" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Some 12z NAM QPF totals TAN - 0.20" CHH - 0.48" MVY - 0.42" ACK - 0.64" EWB - 0.30" PVD - 0.19" OWB - 0.09" BOS - 0.07" ORH - 0.02" BDL - 0.03" LGA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I believe Brian said the EURO mean had the 0.1" line up to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 LGA? Looks like 0.04" I'm just grabbing this off of Earl Barker's page. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Klga.txt Plug in the airport/asos code at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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