weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 HAVE INSERTED CHC POPS FOR THE SE COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS AS THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER LIFT IS ASSOCIATED. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR PUSHING THROUGH...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...WHERE ACCUMS COULD REACH BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR THE FIRST OF SEVERAL ARCTIC BLASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah I agree going to be tough for most of us but I think Phil/cweat may have some fun. Yup... I think it could turn into a decent storm for the Cape but it's going to have a pretty sharp edge. I would prefer to see some super-amped ensemble members but there's not much. Watch the GEFS/SREFs going forward. The trend wil be important. Non ncep guidance is a non hit but the 6z rgem was a glancing blow. If ncep guidance timing is off in the southern stream it'll be nothing. 6z gfs had about 1/2 the members as a cape hit of some sort with only 2 misses. Definitely trended better. Sref is posted here. We will know very early in the runs today. Personally I want to see more evidence of a potent northern s/w too. Kind of lost that st 6z but made up for it with a stronger southern system. Two things in our favor. 1 models usually blow the strength of these southern energy bundles, 2 this year they've been too fast with the cold at all ranges. Should give us a few more hours. A more potent northern system and we could see a pretty sharp change in modeling at 12z to a bigger event. Timing changes the other way and poof. Only thing holding me back is no non ncep support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Agreed. I may go from dim sun cirrus to no sun cirrus. lol Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Heh, 1 run away from full blown wood. If this one pans out I need to send ginxy a fruitcake. I expect the southern s/w to come in stronger and stronger. It's coming. Bottle of Jack would be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I could see 1-2" falling in the SE MA, S&E of I-95/128, with more on CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREF's ticked a little further W with low? anyone else confirm? hoping for a clobbering for our friends in SE MASS/Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the precipitation shield looks further west, getting the cape into the 0.5 qpf.. still far off but nice to see the west trend continue for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I could see 1-2" falling in the SE MA, S&E of I-95/128, with more on CC as of this morning, can not deny the run to run trend of bombing closer to CC, right now they are very close to being in the CCB. They should be on pins and heddles today, this might turn out fantastic for them. 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 1-3 seems fairly likely to i91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 1-3 seems fairly likely to i91 I agree and nice to see an IVT signal at the very least further west on some models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the precipitation shield looks further west, getting the cape into the 0.5 qpf.. still far off but nice to see the west trend continue for them. Looks like the 0.5" contour is limited to ACK and MVY, but it's oh so close to CC. 0.25" contour is on a line from BOS/PVD. 0.1" contour goes from S ME/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I agree and nice to see an IVT signal at the very least further west on some models. Yeah I think yo may be able to grab some too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah I think yo may be able to grab some too This is pretty close to something very special for at least our eastern friends, could be nasty with winds and crashing temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 I just wont have any confidence until we see non NCEP guidance come into the fold. NAM is south again with the closed contour low in the deep south, 3rd run in a row. Maybe a tiny bit weaker than the 6z early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This is pretty close to something very special for at least our eastern friends, could be nasty with winds and crashing temps I could see Scooter, Phil, Messenegr with 6+ of windblown powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I could see Scooter, Phil, Messenegr with 6+ of windblown powder I hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I just wont have any confidence until we see non NCEP guidance come into the fold. NAM is south again with the closed contour low in the deep south, 3rd run in a row. Maybe a tiny bit weaker than the 6z early on. Ec ens mean was nw again. IIRC the 0.05" line made it to BOS so there must be a couple of weenie members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm sorry for posting every run of the SREF's. I really am. But everyone pray they are right...just pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Less interaction with the northern stream? I'm messing around getting stuff done so only half looking, someone else may see it differently, take with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 A lot more energy coming down out of Canada this run vs the 6z. But the timing is slightly different. By 24 it's looking pretty interesting..what a tight squeeze! By 30 it looks to me like the northern energy is bending around already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Heh, 1 run away from full blown wood. If this one pans out I need to send ginxy a fruitcake. I expect the southern s/w to come in stronger and stronger. It's coming.Similar to 12/29 with respect to s/w intensification issues on guidance. Only difference is this storm has strong incoming CAA to contend with. I could see the cape doing well. NW of 95 will be tough IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's really close, and I don't trust the NAM outside of 36 If the northern stream gets out ahead at all we're cooked. NAM is more amplified on the front side which is good, through 36. But the slower models were misses for the most part in earlier runs. Different evolution this time. But there appears to be less interaction so I think we'll see it hit the wall trying to come up on this run of the NAM unless it does something funky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 HAVE INSERTED CHC POPS FOR THE SE COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS AS THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER LIFT IS ASSOCIATED. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR PUSHING THROUGH...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...WHERE ACCUMS COULD REACH BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR THE FIRST OF SEVERAL ARCTIC BLASTS. Ooooo baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's really close, and I don't trust the NAM outside of 36 If the northern stream gets out ahead at all we're cooked. NAM is more amplified on the front side which is good, through 36. But the slower models were misses for the most part in earlier runs. Different evolution this time. But there appears to be less interaction so I think we'll see it hit the wall trying to come up on this run of the NAM unless it does something funky. Differences look negligible to 06z thru the same time frame. Maybe a hair slower on the southern energy. Heights ahead of the southern vort are higher so it may end up slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I could see 1-2" falling in the SE MA, S&E of I-95/128, with more on CC I could see a scenario with more for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 oh baby this is getting close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 oh baby this is getting close! I don't like the NAM at all..being honest. I think it's a step back from the 6z. Will await other guidance, but. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm sorry for posting every run of the SREF's. I really am. But everyone pray they are right...just pray. Those are high probs at BOS. 45-50% of 8"? Wow. Even 10-20% of 12".Can't tell exact %'s on phone but impressive nontheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't like the NAM at all..being honest. I think it's a step back from the 6z. Will await other guidance, but. Well it has snow for sne, pretty decent out your way, some snow is better than no snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 1-3" looks possible for boston area .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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