Flaking Our Way Into MLK Weekend 1/17-1/18

[scoob40]

I do. 

I'll watch the 6:41 one

Where ?

http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks like I missed the snow by 10-15 miles.

[TalcottWx]

Just thought cape would see more

[ORH_wxman]

Mets > Euro.

 

 

Meteorology, not modelology.

[Mr Torchey]

Congrats Cape Cod and Phil!

[SouthCoastMA]

Got about 1/2", but I guess a trained spotter in New Bedford reported 1.5", he must have been in the South End area.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Got about 1/2", but I guess a trained spotter in New Bedford reported 1.5", he must have been in the South End area.

Same deal over this way, the NOAA employee about 8 miles wsw had .8" about the same here as that's what I went to bed with and it snowed for another hour or so.

The coast of Rhode Island scraped out an inch. Epic but not bad for a total whiff a few days ago.

Srefs inside or a day were good, the HRRR dev (not primary) was good inside of 8-10. Rap same 6 or so hours. Harvey's 11pm forecast was spot on.

[SouthCoastMA]

Same deal over this way, the NOAA employee about 8 miles wsw had .8" about the same here as that's what I went to bed with and it snowed for another hour or so.The coast of Rhode Island scraped out an inch. Epic but not bad for a total whiff a few days ago.Srefs inside or a day were good, the HRRR dev (not primary) was good inside of 8-10. Rap same 6 or so hours. Harvey's 11pm forecast was spot on.

BOX's snow map from midday yesterday was also spot on.

Edit: Actually, they nailed the <1" line, but could've upped the 1-2" zone to 2-4". Still not bad. It's possible the more recent snow map reflected this.

Will's call was very good as well. 1" to 4" from the Canal eastward.

[radarman]

Congrats to the cape.  Hoping for pictures.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Same deal over this way, the NOAA employee about 8 miles wsw had .8" about the same here as that's what I went to bed with and it snowed for another hour or so. The coast of Rhode Island scraped out an inch. Epic but not bad for a total whiff a few days ago. Srefs inside or a day were good, the HRRR dev (not primary) was good inside of 8-10. Rap same 6 or so hours. Harvey's 11pm forecast was spot on.

 

Yeah they did pretty well once inside of about 18 hours yesterday. Their 24-36 hour progs were abysmal however...which is dissappointing since that is when they are supposed to do quite well. To most forecasters credit, they didn't buy the SREFs giving all the snow they were forecasting for BOS-PVD SEward, but you never like to see guidance perform poorly like that. To a lesser extent, same with those 2 Euro runs that brought measurable precip way too far NW.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

BOX's snow map from midday yesterday was also spot on.

Edit: Actually, they nailed the <1" line, but could've upped the 1-2" zone to 2-4". Still not bad. It's possible the more recent snow map reflected this.

Will's call was very good as well. 1" to 4" from the Canal eastward.

Yeah they upped at 2am.

Could be one or the biggest storms of the year mid cape and islands. Lol.

Snows vanishing fast sublimation. All around good stuff from everyone. On the outside was hoping for maybe 2 more out east and 1 here in addition to what fell, that band eroded quickly.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yeah they did pretty well once inside of about 18 hours yesterday. Their 24-36 hour progs were abysmal however...which is dissappointing since that is when they are supposed to do quite well. To most forecasters credit, they didn't buy the SREFs giving all the snow they were forecasting for BOS-PVD SEward, but you never like to see guidance perform poorly like that. To a lesser extent, same with those 2 Euro runs that brought measurable precip way too far NW.

Saw this after....will were the members changed recently?

Models were actually fine. Even the euro, it was a matter of an hour or two on the s/w timing between a little more and what we got, easy to see the model bumps.

[ORH_wxman]

Saw this after....will were the members changed recently? Models were actually fine. Even the euro, it was a matter of an hour or two on the s/w timing between a little more and what we got, easy to see the model bumps.

 

 

Eh, I don't have as high of an opinion on the way the Euro did on those two runs as you. It was pretty obvious (at least to me) that the precip was not going to get as far NW as it was trying to get it. Synoptics weren't there. But alas, its not like it busted on a major event, so not that big of a deal.

[SouthCoastMA]

The ensembles busted on the same run too, so I wonder if it was just an issue with bad 12z init data.

[Ginx snewx]

Congrats to the cape.  Hoping for pictures.

 

coast_guard_snow.png

[eduggs]

I think this was one of the biggest if not the biggest..busts in Euro history.

 

Certainly 100% PHAIL for me..and I accept any and all criticism's thrown my way.

The Euro verified well in all parameters except one run of QPF.  It had light QPF too far north from weak frontogenesis that was eaten by dry air.  The other models had several less accurate cycles in the runup.  Overall the storm was fairly well modeled.  A few mets jumped the gun down in the mid Atlantic, which is understandable with the strong north trend they had 2 days ago. 

 

This bust is on you.  Not the Euro.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The Brahmin, just down the road from Fenway a mile or so.    right next to the red lantern.  Great for post red sox/Celtics games.

 

The one nice thing about no boston snow is it's a bit easier to park. 

 

 

Phil's about to get hit pretty hard.

Location: South and north of where it snows.

[Ginx snewx]

The Euro verified well in all parameters except one run of QPF.  It had light QPF too far north from weak frontogenesis that was eaten by dry air.  The other models had several less accurate cycles in the runup.  Overall the storm was fairly well modeled.  A few mets jumped the gun down in the mid Atlantic, which is understandable with the strong north trend they had 2 days ago. 

 

This bust is on you.  Not the Euro.

[radarman]

Some really good pics here:

http://storify.com/jasongraziadei/nantucket-snow-storm

 

(link tweeted by Taunton)

[Damage In Tolland]

The Euro verified well in all parameters except one run of QPF. It had light QPF too far north from weak frontogenesis that was eaten by dry air. The other models had several less accurate cycles in the runup. Overall the storm was fairly well modeled. A few mets jumped the gun down in the mid Atlantic, which is understandable with the strong north trend they had 2 days ago.

This bust is on you. Not the Euro.

Big bust from you

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Eh, I don't have as high of an opinion on the way the Euro did on those two runs as you. It was pretty obvious (at least to me) that the precip was not going to get as far NW as it was trying to get it. Synoptics weren't there. But alas, its not like it busted on a major event, so not that big of a deal.

 

Back when we used to have snowy winters with regular coastals that delivered 4-8" events (everything now is 20" bombs, falling before Thanksgiving, or snow to mess events) as cold air was coming into place it was pretty common to see the globals overdo the NW shield.  If you remember particularly on the GFS you could pretty much chop .1" from the .25" line NW almost every time, the Euro to a lesser extent but usually still to some.  I don't think in my hood the dry air was really the issue, the timing of the s/w and it being just a smidge further south than earlier modeled was the 20-40 mile difference - kept the synoptic snows just a bit further SE and also a slightly different wind angle which prevented much enhancement but it was going to be really tough to throw the precip further west.  I think we're lucky this played out as it did, it was kind of slipping away at the end there pretty quickly as the s/w got out ahead.  In the end even the later models I think did bust a bit high...IMO it was trending away from us at the end.

 

The models in general were miserable on this in the mid range.  I can see why, this was really an intricate system that was moving so fast any initial condition change 4 days ago was enough to mean a miss. Northern stream features were tearing along.   It's one of the bigger shifts I can recall coming from basically Bermuda to 4" snows on parts of the Cape inside of 72 hours.  Cool.  

 

There is something to the programming of the models that's inherent to why the GFS/NAM tend to be more Charlie sheen.  The Euro seems to smooth out changes over several runs as a characteristic of how it runs.  The GFS will swing more wildly run to run.  So we had the GFS bouncing NW and SE run to run while the Euro was steadily NW, overshooting only at the last minute. 

 

The SREFs were awful beyond the short term.  I've heard the ETA members were switched with WRF members, if true I wonder if that's part of it. 

 

This one presented particular difficulty for forecasters because the Euro was so slow to come on board to this system they were left with having to rely on the NCEP guidance, which at times is ugh.  So the busts were understandable.  If they relied just on the Euro 2 days ago they'd have forecast nothing in many areas that got snow, rely on NCEP and they over forecast.

 

With the PV so close next week I think it's  Cape/coastal deal on the 22nd unless by some miracle the PV did some magic.  The late month system looks okay, we really need the crushing PV to back away, DT is right, we're not going to see a regionwide storm with that sitting so close.

 

By the way, the dual pol was awesome.  Could actually see the OEH under the synoptic snows....that's a first and should be assume if we ever get a real coastal.

 

The ensembles busted on the same run too, so I wonder if it was just an issue with bad 12z init data.

 

I just think it was timing differences.    In the end the Euro 12z was a little off with the speed in the southern stream once it hit the coast, so it ended up a bit SE as did all the precip.  Maybe it was a bad init or two, it would not have taken much when systems were moving 50+ mph aloft.  

[eduggs]

Big bust from you

?

 

You rode the most extreme solutions, right until the last minute.  You went with classic weenieology, and not meteorology.  But I think you actually do it to troll some of the mets, which you do effectively. 

 

I thought the storm was pretty well behaved.  I went with snow for the Cape and Islands only, with a sharp cutoff and echoed Will's 1-4" west to east call.  He ended up doing well.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I agree Phil, this won't take much to get going, only question I have is suppression.

 

Coastal system, someone said the pattern doesn't support amplification.  The PV being that close on the GFS isn't terrible for the coast but this will have a hard time unless we get an inverted trough deal going away from the coast. (as modeled currently).   Are people wish casting by thinking it could come closer...or be bigger, of course not, it may happen.

 

Well at least after 2 straight days of No Precip. for over 200 Hours and then TWO Rain events followed by more cold and no snow into Feb., we at At LEAST have Alberta Clipper to watch a week from now.

 

At 2-3 day lead the models delivered about 5 flakes to the Cape for yesterday, I don't think you can worry too much beyond about the 22nd.

 

The Cape got 4" more than most of New England will see from the 22nd in all likelihood.   2 days out I think most would have bet it was nothing, certainly at 3-4 days I think most of you thought the thread was a joke.   Sure there was some wish casting, but that paints a broad brush.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

?

 

You rode the most extreme solutions, right until the last minute.  You went with classic weenieology, and not meteorology.  But I think you actually do it to troll some of the mets, which you do effectively. 

 

I thought the storm was pretty well behaved.  I went with snow for the Cape and Islands only, with a sharp cutoff and echoed Will's 1-4" west to east call.  He ended up doing well.

 

 

Most people here 2-4 days out thought the thread was a joke.  It was specific to the cape all along right from the first post.  I think it was well behaved inside of about 24 or so hours, outside of that...heck many models had no precip on the Cape in the 36-48 hour range.

 

As far as Kev's optimistic view on snows, nobody has to read it.  I mean I think we know he has a snow bias.  No big deal, I think it's pretty well understood and most all enjoy it.

[eduggs]

Most people here 2-4 days out thought the thread was a joke.  It was specific to the cape all along right from the first post.  I think it was well behaved inside of about 24 or so hours, outside of that...heck many models had no precip on the Cape in the 36-48 hour range.

You're right that the majority of guidance had this thing suppressed in the midrange.  The dgex and then the 3.5 day NAM actually had a NY and NE snowstorm for a few runs so there was some indication of potential, although the dgex by itself is not very reliable.  You might be right that some people thought the threat was a joke, but I think many people were paying attention.  They certainly should have with a strong southern stream cutoff, high baroclinicity, and a surge of moisture into the South and Mid-Atl.  As many have said, if the PV and northern stream had not been so unfavorable, it could have developed into a widespread east coast storm.  It looked like a possible Cape scraper all along (even when the modeling was not explicitly showing this), and that's what resulted in the end.  Good job highlighting it with this thread.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

You're right that the majority of guidance had this thing suppressed in the midrange.  The dgex and then the 3.5 day NAM actually had a NY and NE snowstorm for a few runs so there was some indication of potential, although the dgex by itself is not very reliable.  You might be right that some people thought the threat was a joke, but I think many people were paying attention.  They certainly should have with a strong southern stream cutoff, high baroclinicity, and a surge of moisture into the South and Mid-Atl.  As many have said, if the PV and northern stream had not been so unfavorable, it could have developed into a widespread east coast storm.  It looked like a possible Cape scraper all along (even when the modeling was not explicitly showing this), and that's what resulted in the end.  Good job highlighting it with this thread.

 

The best I could have seen this being was a couple of inches from Duxbury down to about New Bedford/Fall River with an almost immediate drop there, 3-6" or so here, and 4-8 or so for out by Phil and ACK.  That's if the timing had been just a bit better allowing the southern system to lift more  before getting pushed out.  That just didn't happen, the southern system shot out ahead a little bit - as modeled  The more optimistic models got that 50 or so miles further north.  It's one of those things where I think the probabilities NOAA had for the larger totals were about spot on...by later yesterday the chances of a significant event even on the cape were down to about 5%.   Radar and water vapor pretty well confirmed early evening last night that the southern system had mainly escaped and there would be no 5%....but there was always a chance.

 

The most interesting part of this to me was the modeling.  Why does NCEP guidance tend to overamp things while the UK absolutely refused until about the last minute to even give the Cape much of anything on the other extreme.  Weird math behind the models.

 

One thing I'll be interested to see next Tuesday is the old .1" rule.  Bitter cold, dry airmass....are we going to see the expansive snow shield later in the GFS and others that gets chewed in ground truth some.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Got 1-2 here this morning.

[Typhoon Tip]

Coastal system, someone said the pattern doesn't support amplification.  The PV being that close on the GFS isn't terrible for the coast but this will have a hard time unless we get an inverted trough deal going away from the coast. (as modeled currently).   Are people wish casting by thinking it could come closer...or be bigger, of course not, it may happen.

 

 

At 2-3 day lead the models delivered about 5 flakes to the Cape for yesterday, I don't think you can worry too much beyond about the 22nd.

 

 

The Cape got 4" more than most of New England will see from the 22nd in all likelihood.   2 days out I think most would have bet it was nothing, certainly at 3-4 days I think most of you thought the thread was a joke.   Sure there was some wish casting, but that paints a broad brush.

 

 

What you got was oes - from a synoptic point of view and most of the thread contributions there were there, no

[Clinch Leatherwood]

What you got was oes - from a synoptic point of view and most of the thread contributions there were there, no

 

based on the dual pole I think I got about 7 OES flakes last night, and most of the Cape was the same.  The OES portion was mainly not a big deal, the snow that fell came in from the SW, it wasn't OES.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Got 1-2 here this morning.

 

Did you really?  There were some echoes out by you off and on moving in from the west but there wasn't a report so I'm assuming you're joking.