N. OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 We shall see what the king has for cape in 4 hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 virga for kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 We shall see what the king has for cape in 4 hrs! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I've observed in all of this years events that the Achilles heal of the euro is qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Euro probably will fail...it had DC getting .30 and they got less then .05 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 We shall see what the king has for cape in 4 hrs! DT was correct in **** canning the NAM in short last night. And the RPM which he was all over FB talking about today. I don't think it looks great right now, the precip that the euro swept up over SNE later originated kind of in place as this pulse comes up from east of DE right now. It doesn't look particularly robust let's say, but I'm not sure I'd give up if I were Carverwx for an inch or two yet based on the NAM alone. I said a dusting to 2" before the NAM ran, will stick with that for here for now. It's do or die by about the time the GFS rolls out in an hour, we should see the echoes start to expand pretty quickly south of us by 1030 ish We are just starting to see what should be the enhancement popping up well south of Block on the radar. The NAM didn't really change much for down here, it's a 1-3 or 2-4 type deal out at and beyond Phil, less here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I've observed in all of this years events that the Achilles heal of the euro is qpf. Well I think it's still the best for QPF inside 72 hrs in the northern hemi....but it does have clunker moments. It's a model...like every other model, it can have hiccups. I know the GFS gets crap, but it really is a good model. We all know it's bias...so if you ignore the interior being a bit too warm..it's a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Euro probably will fail...it had DC getting .30 and they got less then .05 I think. DC failed because of dry air, not because of lack of moisture falling from the sky. They were right on the edge of the dry air on the euro by a few miles, that's not the case up here in SE NE at all...and it's two different areas of precip anyway. It's snowing here under like 2dbz echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The RPM really wasn't anything much past the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 DC failed because of dry air, not because of lack of QPF...and it's two different areas of precip anyway. It's snowing here under like 2dbz echoes. Models take dry air into consideration. This was modeled too wet for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The RPM really wasn't anything much past the canal. RPM is on fire thats a red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 RPM is on fire thats a red flag Trust me, not always lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Models take dry air into consideration. This was modeled too wet for DC. The euro had a trace for me these three hours...it's snowing now. Does that mean it verified and will verify?... I know what you're saying, it printed out X qpf for DC they didn't get it, Charlottesville it had maybe .6 they got .35 etc etc but I'm not sure if some are trying to say because it didn't do well in DC it's going to bust on the Cape too and not snow here. They also had dry air to contend with that was mauling precip. I'm under Kevin sized echoes and have a steady light snow falling. If Phil etc can get into the banding it's going to snow pretty hard for them. Anyway, dusting to 2" seems reasonable here. I think the 80% RH line from the 12z Euro will end up being the edge of the falling snow, to whatever degree it's actually falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 The RPM really wasn't anything much past the canal. Just went and looked, just prior to game time last night the RPM had nothing for Roanoke and Richmond...roughly. Whoops, Per DT. That doesn't mean it'll be wrong up here though. "oh By the way folks... That RPM model ... which Last night showed NO SNOW in Richmond and caused such a stir...? now has 3 " maybe 3.5 inches in RIC and 6.5" in Roanoke" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 35.2/20 - N @ 7 - First few tiny flakes... Wind has shifted more Northerly and even a bit more NNE - but dewpoint continues to fall... Down 2 more degrees in 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Yeah, I saw that. He is a hoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Welp....time to walk in the deep deep snow with the dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Weenie flakes here....success!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Yeah, I saw that. He is a hoot I know NOTHING about the model, where it comes from, how it's done etc. But I found his tirade kind of funny. Man speaks his mind and it did seem to lay a big egg down there today. Scott all I'm saying on the Euro is I don't think it was too bad closer to the coast...in areas where some of the precip that came up this way tonight originated. IE Delmarva and offshore where IMO the NAM seems to have missed that to some extent which makes me think the area between say Braintree and SE CT is still in line for falling snow later. I don't have full grid QPF on the Euro like you guys do so I'm adding by the panel...but towards the Delmara etc, it doesn't look terrible. What we also had at play was the intense banding...which is what everyone expected I think even up here later??? The band that usually ends up just NW of Ray.... You've got a cutoff down there of 3/4 of an inch to less than a tenth in a few miles. Up here that may not be quite as dramatic because of the northern energy involvement. I think the 0z NAM may not have been expansive enough with the lighter snows...JMHO. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Welp....time to walk in the deep deep snow with the dog. Stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 DT will always try to tear his competition apart in the most classless way possible. He should be close to a lawsuit....and a bottle of Xanex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Light snow still falling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Just checked looked good to Me last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 DT will always try to tear his competition apart in the most classless way possible. He should be close to a lawsuit....and a bottle of Xanex. Only one bottle? Edited above, I know nothing about the model or where it comes from, just pointing out it didn't do well down south to the point a well know personality went Charlie sheen on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Only one bottle? Edited above, I know nothing about the model or where it comes from, just pointing out it didn't do well down south to the point a well know personality went Charlie sheen on it. As usual he takes everything out of context and probably found one run out of the 8 runs per day that had a burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 some light snow falling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 How the freakin rap lookin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 As usual he takes everything out of context and probably found one run out of the 8 runs per day that had a burp. How often does it run? We've got our dusting here, chairs etc have just the slightest dusting. Still very light snow falling. The stuff coming up off Jersey is "it" that'll need to be able to arc up along the line that's forming in RI/SE MA later. The QPF cutoff in the DC area is eye popping...I don't think we'll have that extreme here because it's already been able to saturate and fall. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 some light snow falling here Wonder if that band will hang out and intensify a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 How the freakin rap lookin Latest is the same, it brings the stuff coming up from SE NJ and offshore over SE CT, RI and about up to boston later. Wonder if that band will hang out and intensify a bit. I think maybe it kind of develops/redevelops as this stuff to our south rides up in an hour or two. You can see the line crushing SE up towards Bob, race is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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