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Flaking Our Way Into MLK Weekend 1/17-1/18


Clinch Leatherwood

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Just looking at soundings on the latest RAP - appears the massive dry layer centered around 700 mb doesn't really moisten up enough until around 5Z (midnight?) so hopefully we get a coating or something around then.  Even at that time there's still some dryness but it's mostly saturated and wetbulbed.

 

RAP brings the darkest greens up to around Brockton and maybe Quincy.

 

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

Yeah RAP waits until closer to midnight for falling precip, Euro goes before that and that may be what was going on with the run.

That said the RAP continues to shove the precip NW with each run.  It has 3-5 hours of measurable from BDL to Worcester and Boston.

 

I don't know, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck maybe it's the Euro.

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would this be rain still on cape. lol

http://www.weathertap.com/radar/region/ne/winter_ani]http://www.weathertap.com/radar/region/ne/winter_ani[/url] like those echos racing N off virginia

That's the second arc of moisture on the euro. I like what it was doing but by the time we know if its right or not the new models will be out. It looks pretty similar, but those echoes to the north are junk mostly aside of the thin ribbon south of LI

Carverwx. Weenie in me would say 1-2" but if I had to forecast it'd be flurries for you for right now. Rap gives you an inch or two as does the euro. HRRR no. I'm not sure about the widespread qpf vs the narrow band. If I had to forecast I'd go the route of NOAA and Harv pending the 0z. If the nam comes in at all like earlier runs or the euro I'd up right away.

Going against Harv is like going against the euro. Ali vs Fraser. I would error on suck based on our luck

I've been traveling for the last xx mins, haven't seen anything new. I mean the euro 6 run rule is tough to go against but seeing as everyone aside of Kevin thinks nothing NW of the cape...

How do you go against the euro? Hmm

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