Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The more I look at this, the more I think that the precip generated over my area is from the northern stream interaction with the southern stream. Inverted trough type of stuff. The stuff over CC is more associated with the southern stream system. I have said this for 4 days!!!!! overcast 39/27 dewpoint creeping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 One, because when you write someome, you sign the letter at the end. I think of my writings here as abbreviated letters to anyone who is willing to read them. Two, because it holds me accountable for what I say, I am attaching my handle to it, and it shows that I stand behind my writing. Three, it's a habit that I cant get out of, I started it for email(real name of course) and just cant stop it -skisheep How come you sign your name after every post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 kind of like rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 i've never seen the OP euro wetter than every gfs ensemble member at this range that's a concern for sure if you're west of the CP. Too early to tell, but there is going to be a lot of dry air inland. Check this out Forky. When the Euro does lock in it really is an amazing model. Note how the upper low is compressing from the NW in these last few frames...it's no longer a pretty tight circle. The euro nails this right down to the general structure of the system...others not so much. RAP isn't on board yet with the Euro totally in the northern stream. It holds back that energy a bit longer than the Euro and no doubt that's why it's not getting the precip NW like the Euro Check out this loop... http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130117&endTime=-1&duration=4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 HRRR looks reasonable. Close, yet so far away: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Wouldn't it be funny if rained on the Cape and snowed in interior SNE in the biggest positive bust ever ? wuh wuh wuhhhhh You know.. I've been wondering just that because it's still 39 degrees with some very warm water around. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 A very tame and realistic forecast from the usually robust weenie hrrr, nice little storm for the cape:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 HRRR looks reasonable. Close, yet so far away: 1ref_t3sfc_f11.png It's not terrible as we approach 0z by any means (the HRRR) A very tame and realistic forecast from the usually robust weenie hrrr, nice little storm for the cape:) That doesn't seem unreasonable as of right now..measurable from about Duxbury to New Bedford. But, I like the HRRR as much as the SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Wouldn't it be funny if rained on the Cape and snowed in interior SNE in the biggest positive bust ever ? wuh wuh wuhhhhh You know.. I've been wondering just that because it's still 39 degrees with some very warm water around. I guess we'll see. I don't think you'll have much of a problem. Things may start wet but you should be OK with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I don't think you'll have much of a problem. Things may start wet but you should be OK with time. Phil what time do you think you guys start snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What time are we thinking snow gets into W Sne? Maybe 11-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Local office on the ball. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOWOVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS TONIGHT BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR NAND W THE STEADIER SNOW GETS. THINK THE ECMWF PUSHES THE SNOW TOOFAR NW INTO THE DRIER AIR SO WE ARE ADJUSTING THIS SE CLOSER TOTHE NAM/GFS WHICH BRINGS BACK EDGE ROUGHLY TO BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.FOR ACCUM...WE ARE GOING WITH 2-4" FOR ACK...1-2" CAPE COD AND ACOATING TO AN INCH SE MA AND S RI. WE ARE ISSUING A WINTERWEATHER ADVSY FOR ACK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP QPFGRADIENT AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE HIGHER ACCUM COULD SHIFT NWWHICH WOULD REQUIRE A NW EXPANSION OF THE ADVSY. THIS WILL HAVETO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TONIGHT.THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS OCEAN EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW OVER THEOUTER CAPE LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR IS PULLED SWD OVER THEOCEAN RESULTING IN EXTREME INSTABILITY. DELTA T BETWEEN SST ANDTOP OF THE MIXED LAYER INCREASES TO 20C+ LATE TONIGHT SO THEREWILL BE ENHANCEMENT/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW AND NORTHERLY TRAJECTORYFAVORS THE OUTER CAPE ROUGHLY FROM HYA E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Local office on the ball. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS TONIGHT BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR N AND W THE STEADIER SNOW GETS. THINK THE ECMWF PUSHES THE SNOW TOO FAR NW INTO THE DRIER AIR SO WE ARE ADJUSTING THIS SE CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS WHICH BRINGS BACK EDGE ROUGHLY TO BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. FOR ACCUM...WE ARE GOING WITH 2-4" FOR ACK...1-2" CAPE COD AND A COATING TO AN INCH SE MA AND S RI. WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVSY FOR ACK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP QPF GRADIENT AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE HIGHER ACCUM COULD SHIFT NW WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A NW EXPANSION OF THE ADVSY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TONIGHT. THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS OCEAN EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE OUTER CAPE LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR IS PULLED SWD OVER THE OCEAN RESULTING IN EXTREME INSTABILITY. DELTA T BETWEEN SST AND TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER INCREASES TO 20C+ LATE TONIGHT SO THERE WILL BE ENHANCEMENT/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW AND NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY FAVORS THE OUTER CAPE ROUGHLY FROM HYA E. 4-6" Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 4-6" Cape Need to watch the dry air. Right about now is when the Euro started to develop the precip off NJ and over LI and that's starting to happen...that expands into SNE over the next few hours. You can see the beginning of this over LI right now. But will it reach the ground or is that QPF going to get mauled? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=box&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I hope you guys get something down there. You've been just as bad as up here, even given climo. The Jan '87s and Feb '89s of the world will again reappear sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 obs from freehold nj of some flakage reaching the ground, pretty far north in jerz. I have no idea why, I might not even see a flurry but, I absolutely LOVE tracking these events much more so than the big ones that produce. Fascinating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I hope it starts before bed for me but think it holds off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 I hope you guys get something down there. You've been just as bad as up here, even given climo. The Jan '87s and Feb '89s of the world will again reappear sooner rather than later. My hours were off above...Euro kind of swings that band we see out over the water NW in the next 2-3 hours and gradually develops it. That becomes the NW edge and precip develops SE of it as the low gets going. Still a few hours from really having a good idea of which way it's going. The composite is okay, but most of it is getting mauled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If we are seeing flakes in freehold that makes me think that we might be looking at more of a EURO solution, since as LL said that seems pretty far north. Also makes me more optimistic that I see some flakes out of this. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 pellets, sprinkles and flurries now on the south shore of long island, as per obs nyc thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Final call for me: .7" OTG in the morning. Going with more of a EURO style solution since it's record is unbeatable and the fact that the GFS trended towards it makes me think that it has the right idea. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 So Scooter if you get 1-2 why did you know, give it up:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 So Scooter if you get 1-2 why did you know, give it up:) I know....sounds contradicting. I highly doubt it though, but a coating is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I know....sounds contradicting. I highly doubt it though, but a coating is not out of the question. No, you said you would know why you did, why would you get 1-2 what is the science behind it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 What time are we thinking snow gets into W Sne? Maybe 11-12? western SNE? You still thinking 1-3" back to I91? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Played around looking it's so hard to tell. The Euro starts to unravel the upper low to the south first...that's clearly underway. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130117&endTime=-1&duration=4 At the same time it was faster shunting the northern energy eastward by Chicago. Looks to me it may not have been far off, who knows. I think the precip shield it develops this evening has a northern and southern bound as seen on the composite already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 No, you said you would know why you did, why would you get 1-2 what is the science behind it? Oh well I just think warm air advection and subsequent frontogenesis way aloft would be strong enough to overpower any dry air for a long period of time......if I did get 1-2". See you have to remember something too. Model resolution is not always good enough to show a sudden cut off to QPF such as what we'll see tonight on the nw side of the snow shield. Sure it can model a sharp drop off but in reality, the cutoff can be even sharper. That will also come into play. I have no problem eating crow, but just my hunch....with similar views from the mets in here. Maybe new London county over to PYM can get a little lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 This wouldn't load, but I think you can see roughly where the goalposts are forming if the euro is right. Most of that is garbage on the radar right now, and the Euro map is 3hrs ending at 10pm. Scott I agree on the sharp cutoff too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 western SNE? You still thinking 1-3" back to I91? I thought he lived in West Central New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Just looking at soundings on the latest RAP - appears the massive dry layer centered around 700 mb doesn't really moisten up enough until around 5Z (midnight?) so hopefully we get a coating or something around then. Even at that time there's still some dryness but it's mostly saturated and wetbulbed. RAP brings the darkest greens up to around Brockton and maybe Quincy. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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