Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 My guess. I think its way underdone in the cape Not bad, I'd be more cautious down this way by an inch for right now, not sure why. Maybe 18 months of getting hosed. Looks like most of us are shoveling tomorrow. Amazing turn of events this afternoon That's ridiculous at this stage. if the euro has .4 for most of cape at 0z it's time to adjust those amounts a bit higher. i think other models are playing catch up wrt n. stream vort handling. could be wide spread 4-5 inch snows on cape tonite with 1-2 regionwide over CT /RI E MA as the rev mentioned. It's close, .3 to .4" ish over most of the Cape even me. I'd agree with the other statement. 6 runs of the Euro isn't a burp. Every other afternoon model coming in this direction including the crappy, almost always surpressed 18z NOGAPS tells me something. The RGEM and NOGAPS aren't biting in entirety, they are more like the NAM at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ryan's boss on board @BradNBCCT: southern USA snowstorm grazing parts of CT tonight...southern & eastern CT might get a coating to 1" after midnight, ending by daybreak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ryan's boss on board @BradNBCCT: southern USA snowstorm grazing parts of CT tonight...southern & eastern CT might get a coating to 1" after midnight, ending by daybreak... Ok you have officially been tagged this is your worst post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well the Euro is certainly interesting lol. The Euro has like 0.35" at DCA where op GFS/op NAM and the SREF mean is around 0.2-0.25". Watch DCA over the next few hours and see if they overperform. I still think this is a non-event for most of us NW of UUU-GHG... but I am interested in seeing the 15z SREFs. fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://www.mattnoyes.net/.a/6a00d83451c01c69e2017ee791a63a970d-500wi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Overcast now, the virga storm has commenced on upton composite radar, final call 1 inch of snow for my back yard/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ryan's boss on board @BradNBCCT: southern USA snowstorm grazing parts of CT tonight...southern & eastern CT might get a coating to 1" after midnight, ending by daybreak... love brad-he's such a weenie for snow! Great met though...loved watching him back when I watched TV newscasts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Tweet from @capitalweather Time to call this: Dry air is absolutely destroying any precip over DC. Chance of more than conversational precip DONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Roanoke getting smoked, good for them. Just measured several spots and it averaged about 3 1/2 to around 4''. Been snowing since 2:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 roanoke ,VA getting a bit of a spanking from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Most KEURO fails are Euro fails...this could be one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 fail I don't think the Euro looks that bad based on the 3 hour...pretty much what it expected. Harv up here has FLURRIES for me, most of the cape, dusting to 2" for Phil. That's it. Doubting him is folly. That said I think he's wrong. He didn't elaborate really, his own maps showed 3.5" for Phil. Basically said he doesn't think the precip gets as far north...etc etc. Euro maps always had DC right on the edge of the higher RH....while increasing it here quickly from here on out. Not that worried about it yet (dry air) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 where is the -8c isotherm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The airmass over our region is quite dry, however, forecast soundings do suggest the column will moisten up as we move through the evening. The high pressure to our north is also pretty strong which could really work against any meaningful precip working into the region. The Cape though could get grazed with some snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Congrats Phil, Ack Waves, Saki, flurries will dust the air elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here is what's going on. The models basically bring a piece of frontogenesis moving in thanks to the sharpening nrn stream trough after 06z. Very evident as they blow up precip to the NNE instead of more ENE. You can see this on the H7 VV fields. However, look at 850mb. Strong push of CAA and subsidence below 700mb. That will eat the echoes up alive. Unless the forcing aloft is so strong...I think it will be hard for this I-95 area to see more than flakes or a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The airmass over our region is quite dry, however, forecast soundings do suggest the column will moisten up as we move through the evening. The high pressure to our north is also pretty strong which could really work against any meaningful precip working into the region. The Cape though could get grazed with some snow showers. snow showers huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 i hope ack waves can cash in on something down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here is what's going on. The models basically bring a piece of frontogenesis moving in thanks to the sharpening nrn stream trough after 06z. Very evident as they blow up precip to the NNE instead of more ENE. You can see this on the H7 VV fields. However, look at 850mb. Strong push of CAA and subsidence below 700mb. That will eat the echoes up alive. Unless the forcing aloft is so strong...I think it will be hard for this I-95 area to see more than flakes or a coating. I personally think our 95 area has a strong chance of seeing northing, looking at 2m RH on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here is what's going on. The models basically bring a piece of frontogenesis moving in thanks to the sharpening nrn stream trough after 06z. Very evident as they blow up precip to the NNE instead of more ENE. You can see this on the H7 VV fields. However, look at 850mb. Strong push of CAA and subsidence below 700mb. That will eat the echoes up alive. Unless the forcing aloft is so strong...I think it will be hard for this I-95 area to see more than flakes or a coating. As Phil mentioned, its pretty ugly when most of the flow is out of the west or northwest except the very lowest levels. It needs to be pretty impressive ML fronto to overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here is what's going on. The models basically bring a piece of frontogenesis moving in thanks to the sharpening nrn stream trough after 06z. Very evident as they blow up precip to the NNE instead of more ENE. You can see this on the H7 VV fields. However, look at 850mb. Strong push of CAA and subsidence below 700mb. That will eat the echoes up alive. Unless the forcing aloft is so strong...I think it will be hard for this I-95 area to see more than flakes or a coating. I was going to mention that as well. There looks to be some decent forcing aloft thanks to jet energy but the best QPF stays far enough offshore. Any QPF over us is very, very light and I wouldn't think it amounts to much. Different story along the Cape though, a little better moisture convergence there along with increased frontogenesis so they certainly could see heavier snow showers and maybe a dusting or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 snow showers huh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Interesting that precip is starting to reach the ground in southern nj but can't move north into dc across northern Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Interesting that precip is starting to reach the ground in southern nj but can't move north into dc across northern Va its reaching the ground north of DC too, donut hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 its reaching the ground north of DC too, donut hole Just saw that, some light snow reports ne and nw of baltimore very light. its reaching the ground north of DC too, donut hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Man...was just looking at 500mb winds and they are about as strong as you'll ever see. Seeing 125+ knots at 500mb is freaking ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm hoping to see a coating when I wake up tomorrow, but not expecting anything. I'm too used to disappointment over the last two years, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 ? It's a storm fringing the cape, does it really sound right to call it snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here is what's going on. The models basically bring a piece of frontogenesis moving in thanks to the sharpening nrn stream trough after 06z. Very evident as they blow up precip to the NNE instead of more ENE. You can see this on the H7 VV fields. However, look at 850mb. Strong push of CAA and subsidence below 700mb. That will eat the echoes up alive. Unless the forcing aloft is so strong...I think it will be hard for this I-95 area to see more than flakes or a coating. Agree for now. Euro 80% RH fields were about the cutoff for anything of significance south. That barely makes it to about I95 later. I personally think our 95 area has a strong chance of seeing northing, looking at 2m RH on the euro Right on the fence I'd agree based on the Euro. The two things to watch...sometimes the RAP does pick up on things and it's getting close to scooting out the southern system too fast. As it was, I think this last run was the most impressive so far for the Cape. 2nd is all the caveats...especially that as modeled there's not much lift and usually when that happens we smoke cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Check out the nam fronto banding page, stronger fronto then we have had in storms where precip actually reaches the ground? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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