ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 no advisories even for the cape? Need to be confident in widespread 3"+ amounts for that. Clearly they aren't yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We still ignoring the Euro now that its ens fully support it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 DC/BWI with the ultimate screwjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 OT but personally, I like to use these mundane events as a learning tool. Looking at different data, seeing little nuances in the output. Yeah I think that's what Eduggs and others miss. When you see a solution like the Euro there's a clear reason and you try to isolate the reasoning. It turns out in this case it's essentially the old GFS type solutions. Go look at the 16z and 20z RAP depictions at 500mb for 6z tonight. Eye opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://www.weathertap.com/radar/region/ne/winter_ani Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 There's always the chance Tips atomic dildo or whatever he calls it strikes and throws off the little features and this breaks bad. But, look at the change in even the RAP. And this is what the Euro did at 12z, what the WV seems to back up (to some extent) and what the NAM broke towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 DC/BWI with the ultimate screwjobthat's pretty bad for them. Although if we see a wall of precip 40 miles S and E of us later tonight, we'll feel the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 One point before the GFS. When I look at the RAP - and I think it's done a good job today aloft...I look also for the hourly trends. I did the 16z by mistake for the comparison above, I meant to show the 18z but that was cool because it showed the differences in just 4 hours. Each run has demonstrated even more interaction/lifting of the southern SW. The 19 to 20z at 9z tonight is further north with the southern feature and has the northern feature stronger and digging into PA. Notice now it has little bits of precip popping up from the coast to PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 18z run of the rap was by the far the best run in terms of trying to get the precip further west. The 19z and 20z are worse runs since, so if you want to compare on what we need to get the precip shield even further west use the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://www.weathertap.com/radar/region/ne/winter_ani I'd think we were in line for a direct hit if I were only looking at that image, but after the winter of 2009-2010, I'll never trust a radar. Not expecting anything here, but hope springs eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like snow breaks out in NYC over next hour or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Weenies. Can we give weenie tags lol and Kevin would be their leader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah I think that's what Eduggs and others miss. When you see a solution like the Euro there's a clear reason and you try to isolate the reasoning. It turns out in this case it's essentially the old GFS type solutions. Go look at the 16z and 20z RAP depictions at 500mb for 6z tonight. Eye opening. Using the short range models to pray for an IMBY miracle is an occurance as old as time itself. You're not the only person who looks closely at all the model charts. H5 does not look good for anything more than a glancing blow. The Cape will probably see a few tenths of an inch of liquid (with differences in latitude and mesobanding creating some variation). Hopefully things break right and some heavier banding sets up for a few hours. 4" at 12:1 is not unattainable. But it is far from a lock. The midlevels should quickly cool and if the surface temp can get into the 20s, could see a bit of fluff factor. Dry snow conveys a more wintry feel than wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 18z run of the rap was by the far the best run in terms of trying to get the precip further west. The 19z and 20z are worse runs since, so if you want to compare on what we need to get the precip shield even further west use the 18z run. The only thing I take from the RAP really ever is that at 500 it's come around to back up the rough idea of more interaction. The Euro have the tiny bend in the flow circled here hitting the base and being able to break through and dig down into PA later..the nose rounds as it is and that kind of folds down the backside and is able to dig. The GFS and others that are flatter do not the, it was really a single bundle strung out over a large area that rounds the base and shoots out east both crushing the southern system east and preventing any interaction on the whiffs/weak hits. I don't think there's any doubt interaction is going to take place but to what extreme who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I like me some Weenies. ? you need snow man repent now and the rev will show u the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Probably a nice tropopause lowering in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like virga breaks out in NYC over next hour or 2fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Using the short range models to pray for an IMBY miracle is an occurance as old as time itself. You're not the only person who looks closely at all the model charts. H5 does not look good for anything more than a glancing blow. The Cape will probably see a few tenths of an inch of liquid (with differences in latitude and mesobanding creating some variation). Hopefully things break right and some heavier banding sets up for a few hours. 4" at 12:1 is not unattainable. But it is far from a lock. The midlevels should quickly cool and if the surface temp can get into the 20s, could see a bit of fluff factor. Dry snow conveys a more wintry feel than wet snow. You do realize I live on the Cape right? GFS should be better this run, just based on the init focusing the energy further NW near the circle in red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 There's always the chance Tips atomic dildo or whatever he calls it strikes and throws off the little features and this breaks bad. But, look at the change in even the RAP. And this is what the Euro did at 12z, what the WV seems to back up (to some extent) and what the NAM broke towards. It's the "cosmic dildo", and it's the 5th term in the Omega equation - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not too many snow reports coming out of the mid Atlantic. Still relatively warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 ? you need snow man repent now and the rev will show u the way This thread is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You do realize I live on the Cape right? GFS should be better this run, just based on the init focusing the energy further NW near the circle in red. Yes. I liked Will's (ORH) call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 And here comes the GFS gosh would it be nice to wake up to an inch on the ground tomorrow but highly highly highly doubting it-pending GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 the over under on messenger posts between now and 8am..is....what.... 127 0/U ? and i really do enjoy almost all of them, this is what the board is for, and finally there is an event on the cape where they are the focus, i hope they can sneak a 4-6 inch fluff fest over a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS is on the bus. Has that nice little kink I circled, energy dives into PA later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This thread is amazing.Just Toss entire Euro suite right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 that's pretty bad for them. Although if we see a wall of precip 40 miles S and E of us later tonight, we'll feel the same way. yeah well I did not see accumulation snow in BWI last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This thread is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Just Toss entire Euro suite right? Im with Will. Nothing worthy past the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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