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Flaking Our Way Into MLK Weekend 1/17-1/18


Clinch Leatherwood

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OT but personally, I like to use these mundane events as a learning tool.  Looking at different data, seeing little nuances in the output.

 

Yeah I think that's what Eduggs and others miss.

 

When you see a solution like the Euro there's a clear reason and you try to isolate the reasoning.  It turns out in this case it's essentially the old GFS type solutions. 

 

Go look at the 16z and 20z RAP depictions at 500mb for 6z tonight.  Eye opening.

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One point before the GFS.  When I look at the RAP - and I think it's done a good job today aloft...I look also for the hourly trends.  I did the 16z by mistake for the comparison above, I meant to show the 18z but that was cool because it showed the differences in just 4 hours.

 

Each run has demonstrated even more interaction/lifting of the southern SW.  The 19 to 20z at 9z tonight is further north with the southern feature and has the northern feature stronger and digging into PA.  Notice now it has little bits of precip popping up from the coast to PA?

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The 18z run of the rap was by the far the best run in terms of trying to get the precip further west. The 19z and 20z are worse runs since, so if you want to compare on what we need to get the precip shield even further west use the 18z run.

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Yeah I think that's what Eduggs and others miss.

 

When you see a solution like the Euro there's a clear reason and you try to isolate the reasoning.  It turns out in this case it's essentially the old GFS type solutions. 

 

Go look at the 16z and 20z RAP depictions at 500mb for 6z tonight.  Eye opening.

Using the short range models to pray for an IMBY miracle is an occurance as old as time itself.  You're not the only person who looks closely at all the model charts.

 

H5 does not look good for anything more than a glancing blow.  The Cape will probably see a few tenths of an inch of liquid (with differences in latitude and mesobanding creating some variation).  Hopefully things break right and some heavier banding sets up for a few hours.  4" at 12:1 is not unattainable.  But it is far from a lock.  The midlevels should quickly cool and if the surface temp can get into the 20s, could see a bit of fluff factor.  Dry snow conveys a more wintry feel than wet snow.

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The 18z run of the rap was by the far the best run in terms of trying to get the precip further west. The 19z and 20z are worse runs since, so if you want to compare on what we need to get the precip shield even further west use the 18z run.

 

The only thing I take from the RAP really ever is that at 500 it's come around to back up the rough idea of more interaction. 

 

The Euro have the tiny bend in the flow circled here hitting the base and being able to break through and dig down into PA later..the nose rounds as it is and that kind of folds down the backside and is able to dig.  The GFS and others that are flatter do not the, it was really a single bundle strung out over a large area that rounds the base and shoots out east both crushing the southern system east and preventing any interaction on the whiffs/weak hits.

 

I don't think there's any doubt interaction is going to take place but to what extreme who knows.

post-3232-0-27775100-1358457859_thumb.jp

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Using the short range models to pray for an IMBY miracle is an occurance as old as time itself.  You're not the only person who looks closely at all the model charts.

 

H5 does not look good for anything more than a glancing blow.  The Cape will probably see a few tenths of an inch of liquid (with differences in latitude and mesobanding creating some variation).  Hopefully things break right and some heavier banding sets up for a few hours.  4" at 12:1 is not unattainable.  But it is far from a lock.  The midlevels should quickly cool and if the surface temp can get into the 20s, could see a bit of fluff factor.  Dry snow conveys a more wintry feel than wet snow.

 

You do realize I live on the Cape right? 

 

GFS should be better this run, just based on the init focusing the energy further NW near the circle in red.

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There's always the chance Tips atomic dildo or whatever he calls it strikes and throws off the little features and this breaks bad.

 

But, look at the change in even the RAP. And this is what the Euro did at 12z, what the WV seems to back up (to some extent) and what the NAM broke towards.

 

It's the "cosmic dildo", and it's the 5th term in the Omega equation - 

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the over under on messenger posts between now and 8am..is....what.... 127  0/U ?

 

and i really do enjoy almost all of them, this is what the board is for, and finally there is an event on the cape where they are the focus, i hope they can sneak a 4-6 inch fluff fest over a few hours.

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