Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro ens?? Jma?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAP is actually very aggressive...it's been onto the interaction thing for hours... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=rap&cycle=19&area=namer&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro ens?? Jma?? I thought I read the ens were south, but don't take that to the bank not 100 percent sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAP has about .4" widespread across the Cape. it's out toward the end of the run so have to take that into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAP has about .4" widespread across the Cape. it's out toward the end of the run so have to take that into consideration. Yeah, always a grain of salt but aloft it's similar to the euro and has been for many,many runs which is a big + I'd hate to make a forecast N and W of about Duxbury to New Bedford. I'd think 2-4 or 3-6" seems pretty good right now cape wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Mr. Rap Ruc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAP is actually very aggressive...it's been onto the interaction thing for hours... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=rap&cycle=19&area=namer&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick It definitely has a period of decent precip late in its run for the Cape, but in its first 14 hours it offers no support for the Euro QPF depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Entire event screams MEH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looking at the 5h evolution on the RAP, it really digs that northern stream to the point where it looks like it's trying to phase with the southern stream.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 It definitely has a period of decent precip late in its run for the Cape, but in its first 14 hours it offers no support for the Euro QPF depiction. It does on the Cape which is all I care about. The Euro *may* verify a little too aggressive in the northern stream by 0z. When you look at the GFS, Euro and RAP all 3 have a slightly different position by 21z and 0z tonight of the key features but the RAP more closely supports the Euro and new NAM depiction. Note I didn't say it supports it entirely. I would not forecast precip much beyond Rte 24 in MA right now, and even there I'd be very uncertain of what would fall. I am much more confident of a reasonable hit from about the canal east. 2-4 or 3-6" We will need to watch the next few hours to see how it plays out as we approach 0z. The Euro is definitely more aggressive than any current RAP with the upper energy near Chicago. It's further south. That's why/how it's later able to sling more moisture NW. If that's wrong, it doesn't happen. I don't care to look to be honest to try to figure out which is more correct, we'll know in a few hours anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It definitely has a period of decent precip late in its run for the Cape, but in its first 14 hours it offers no support for the Euro QPF depiction. Its pretty typical of the RAP to have crazy qpf in the final few hours...if it can get that inside of 10 hours by tonight, then it might have some validity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAP is actually very aggressive...it's been onto the interaction thing for hours... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=rap&cycle=19&area=namer&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick It has .2 to BOS...but like others have said its far out for the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Its pretty typical of the RAP to have crazy qpf in the final few hours...if it can get that inside of 10 hours by tonight, then it might have some validity. It's what it's doing now at 500mb that leads to the QPF later. Are you still thinking little or nothing west of the canal? Just so we're all on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro ens?It's actually similar to the op QPF wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's what it's doing now at 500mb that leads to the QPF later. Are you still thinking little or nothing west of the canal? Just so we're all on the same page. Yep...1-4" for the Cape, highest amounts east. I mean, I am not going to be surprised if C-1 turns into 2" within 10-15 miles of the Canal, but I'm not seeing solid advisory amounts or anything west of the Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Mr. Rap Ruc RAP, NAM and Euro in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It does on the Cape which is all I care about. The Euro *may* verify a little too aggressive in the northern stream by 0z. When you look at the GFS, Euro and RAP all 3 have a slightly different position by 21z and 0z tonight of the key features but the RAP more closely supports the Euro and new NAM depiction. Note I didn't say it supports it entirely. I would not forecast precip much beyond Rte 24 in MA right now, and even there I'd be very uncertain of what would fall. I am much more confident of a reasonable hit from about the canal east. 2-4 or 3-6" We will need to watch the next few hours to see how it plays out as we approach 0z. The Euro is definitely more aggressive than any current RAP with the upper energy near Chicago. It's further south. That's why/how it's later able to sling more moisture NW. If that's wrong, it doesn't happen. I don't care to look to be honest to try to figure out which is more correct, we'll know in a few hours anyway. I don't think the RAP supports the Euro QPF distribution, even on the Cape and outer Islands. The totals are similar, but I believe that's just a coincidence. The latter panels are not reliable on the RAP, especially the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RAP, NAM and Euro in reality. This northern stream interaction is what's causing the qpf "blowup". Will need to monitor it to see what occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's actually similar to the op QPF wise. Well, thats interesting for sure, would not want to ever bet against the op when backed by the ens for qpf but it has little support? Conundrum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's actually similar to the op QPF wise.Well then it's time to get snow I forecasts back to NY state it appears. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Its pretty typical of the RAP to have crazy qpf in the final few hours...if it can get that inside of 10 hours by tonight, then it might have some validity. Yeah, totally agree. I didn't want to hit this too hard, because the uncertainty and anticipation is a large part of the fun in the runup to a snowstorm. It adds excitement to leave the more extreme solutions on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This may be the Euros all time coup and its had many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Radar looks quite impressive but the ground truth is pathetic over mostof the northern stuff. A huge virga storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Radar looks quite impressive but the ground truth is pathetic over mostof the northern stuff. A huge virga storm. Very true, I turned on mt hollys composite for a good laugh, it was beautiful, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Bad luck for the lowlands of Virginia... mostly rain. And really tough luck for DC... warm and dry. Synoptically very close to a major snowstorm for them...and yet the result will feel so far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This may be the Euros all time coup and its had many A last minute shift with the .1 and .25 isopleths is not a coup. But if you insist, it would be an ugly bust on its 36hr and 48 hour forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 I don't think the RAP supports the Euro QPF distribution, even on the Cape and outer Islands. The totals are similar, but I believe that's just a coincidence. The latter panels are not reliable on the RAP, especially the QPF. Again who cares about the RAP QPF? Did you take a look at 500mb at 2 and 5 hours vs the GFS Euro and NAM? How about at even 9 or 12 hours? See anything that may be a little different on the RAP, new NAM and Euro and Euro Ens? Yep...1-4" for the Cape, highest amounts east. I mean, I am not going to be surprised if C-1 turns into 2" within 10-15 miles of the Canal, but I'm not seeing solid advisory amounts or anything west of the Canal. Nightmare west of the Cape. If the Euro ENS are in good agreement with the Euro OP as stated, I think the possibilities of a Euro type solution are way up based on what I see right now. I suspect the GFS jumps considerably NW here in this run, at which point it's time to toss the caution to the wind perhaps. I'm almost certain the interaction portrayed on the Euro is about to occur and would argue you can already see the tug beginning. I just don't know if I can absolutely believe the Euro aggressiveness...GFS ramp up would be that confirmation for me anyway. Yeah, totally agree. I didn't want to hit this too hard, because the uncertainty and anticipation is a large part of the fun in the runup to a snowstorm. It adds excitement to leave the more extreme solutions on the table. Again, have you actually bothered to look at 500mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Kudos to Euro folks. Whatever they feed that thing, its an absolute masterpiece. Another win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 no advisories even for the cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 OT but personally, I like to use these mundane events as a learning tool. Looking at different data, seeing little nuances in the output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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