Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 To be clear...I didn't look at the euro down south. If the timing is wrong by even a few hours it'll toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 There's two distinct areas of precip. NAM whiffs, but throws back more moisture towards LI/Coastal SNE overnight. Yeah gfs tried too. The models that hit us had the 2nd ripple in the flow that was able to interact with the southern stream. It's there for sure but if the southern stream is too slow or doesn't lift enough it doesn't matter. We will see. I'll take euro 6 run trends over ncep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Oh how we pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 srefs not good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 srefs seem like they ticked a bit drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 srefs seem like they ticked a bit drier Srefs have been useless. New nam interacting better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Nam is much better. It's on for se areas Screw the srefs. Totally on the bus for a nice hit now. This does seem to happen often. Gfs picks up on an idea then loses it....euro slowly comes to it. Euro has marched north for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Nam looks just fine for cape cod and se mass, enjoy out there folks@! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM came back a bit...looks OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM is better then 12z, not the euro run though. Sim radar looks like 2-5am could be fun for SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Nam is much better. It's on for se areas Screw the srefs. Totally on the bus for a nice hit now. This does seem to happen often. Gfs picks up on an idea then loses it....euro slowly comes to it. Euro has marched north for days. NAM whiffs all the big cities from DC northeast. Light snow for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM came back a bit...looks OK Odd look to the SREFs. Drier(5-10mi) overall but it looks like they picked up on some interaction with the northern stream which gives a trace to a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 can someone post sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Odd look to the SREFs. Drier(5-10mi) overall but it looks like they picked up on some interaction with the northern stream which gives a trace to a lot of the area. overall i think everything has pretty much held serve. typical model bumps/drops/wobbles but still like the general idea of lower cape pulling 3 or 4" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM came back a bit...looks OK Looks very much like how I think it will happen. Half decent out on the eastern Cape to just about Nada by the time you get to I-95...though NAM might be a tad heavy on the western Cape from my ideas, but overall pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 can someone post sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The wall of precip on radar is going to be agonizing to watch tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 overall i think everything has pretty much held serve. typical model bumps/drops/wobbles but still like the general idea of lower cape pulling 3 or 4" out of this. Yeah, nice event out on the elbow. Just looked strange that they added that appendage off to NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 absolutely ridiculous differences at 5h on the nam regarding northern stream interaction. its almost embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Can't believe the Euro tossers Pretty ballasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Is that sref precip representation a toned down version of the Euro, same areas just less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Zoom in of NAM precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Strange evolution of this storm. I asked Scott about a weak inverted trough extending back towards the s/w over the lakes only because a few runs back the nam and gfs had that strange qpf extending back. euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 SREFs: two moderate hits, a dozen or so scrapes, and a handful of whiffs. Not impressive. Hopefully the outliers are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 SREF's just lost the crazy members I think. SREF Plumes have 0-7 for HYA. I think 2-4" is a good call. edit: That's the 9z run, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM whiffs all the big cities from DC northeast. Light snow for the Cape. I don't care, I don't live in the big cities. They've all had snow events over the last few years, this time it's all about MBY. absolutely ridiculous differences at 5h on the nam regarding northern stream interaction. its almost embarrassing. Not surprised, it went hard towards the Euro. There's that second lobe in the northern stream which is able to interact with the southern. If I had to bet on the Euro or the NAM being right I'd go with the Euro. I am not sure about the aerial extent of precip though...yet. Speaking from SE Ma onto the Cape. SREFs: two moderate hits, a dozen or so scrapes, and a handful of whiffs. Not impressive. Hopefully the outliers are correct. Short of them showing a Godzilla attack on a major east coast city I won't look at them. They've been all over the place and utterly useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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