weatherMA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Anyone think advisories for the cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 No fun allowed this is the Soviet Union we type like robot Some of my posts are vanishing too but it's self inflicted. They've fixed the non-posting issue, but somehow it's taking edits for deletion requests without a confirmation. Going to switch to firefox to see if it stops. It may not be the mods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 they might wait a bit to see what some of the 18z models do Anyone think advisories for the cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 thank god you responded b/c that post was deleted and I never would have saw it lol. Just doing my duty to acknowledge hilarity where I see it, that was priceless. I'd be happy/pleasantly surprised to see a coating from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 FWIW the Rap is pretty aggressive aloft. yeah yeah, it's the rap, I put the lotion on the rap etc etc...but it's usually pretty good at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 i remember the euro did this once last year too on a 24 hour forecast...not too dissimilar a set-up actually. then everything at 00z went back east. makes me gun-shy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 i remember the euro did this once last year too on a 24 hour forecast...not too dissimilar a set-up actually. then everything at 00z went back east. makes me gun-shy. I call meh for this area and Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 i remember the euro did this once last year too on a 24 hour forecast...not too dissimilar a set-up actually. then everything at 00z went back east. makes me gun-shy. it'd be silly to change the forecast at this point barring something...the verification ryan talks about, the rap, or 18z NAM/SREFS jumping. On the flip side this is 6 straight runs that have come north of by far the best model. it's plausible, the other globals hint at it they just don't get it done. (check out UK RH fields etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 ACK gets 4.5-5" on the Wunderground maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I call meh for this area and Kev. We'll know in the next few hours. If we're starting to get decent precip well NW of the GFS/NAM forecast QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Advisories should go up on the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What did you think if my rap that Bob deleted? I think you have done better Kevin. And unless you are referring to a supersized kosher dill from the lower east side, that is nothing to be proud of. Take a look at those jars of Clausens and weep. Anyhow, what did the JMA show? Are there any synoptic reasons that this would trend further west? meteorology not modelology.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It was big, big like a pickle. lol... let's all try to do a better job keeping Kevin's raps in the banter thread. Want to try to keep this just about tonight's event since the thread is moving so quickly. It's one thing when these threads are dead but the Euro has made things a bit more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro sometimes has a burp run or two in the very close range...I'm doubting it's validity given the synoptic setup, but at least for BOS proper, it might make watching the radar worth it...an outside shot at an inch or two. And of course for Phil, it might turn an inch or two into an advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 yeah that's what i was thinking - it also has >.1" into NYC by 6z - so if it's right...should be snowing there by late evening Or raining. Current obs and model forecast soundings at onset look relatively warm down there. But should cool sufficiently thereafter. Weak frontogenesis looks too far north on the Euro. There also looks like some mesoscale convergence on the NW fringe in NJ and SENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 We'll know in the next few hours. If we're starting to get decent precip well NW of the GFS/NAM forecast QPF. The thing is its not really that precip that does anything to us. It's the stuff that spins up off DE/NJ tonight. Seems related to more interaction with the trough than just the coastal. it's doing the same thing as the GFS, just more intensely. They both had precip back to the NYC area tonight in this latest run. Which model do you trust in close, the GFS or Euro red taggers? hard to say this is a burp Will, this is the 6th straight run in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Like We said before wait forf Euro ens today. If they support op we chuck if not we toss. Keep in mind ,, ens have always been west of op. red flag,, or red herring. YOU decide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Like We said before wait forf Euro ens today. If they support op we chuck if not we toss. Keep in mind ,, ens have always been west of op. red flag,, or red herring. YOU decide They were SE of the OP last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Advisories should go up on the cape Disagree. NAM, GFS, GEM, SREF, and other ensembles support sub advisory snowfall (except maybe the Islands). This is already a short range forecast and surface temps should be marginal out there, so can handle it with a statement and upgrade later tonight. Satellite and radar look so so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here's your basic difference in handling between the camps. HRRR and RAP. The RAP would be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The thing is its not really that precip that does anything to us. It's the stuff that spins up off DE/NJ tonight. Seems related to more interaction with the trough than just the coastal. it's doing the same thing as the GFS, just more intensely. They both had precip back to the NYC area tonight in this latest run. Which model do you trust in close, the GFS or Euro red taggers? hard to say this is a burp Will, this is the 6th straight run in this direction. I consider it a burp when its well different from other guidance at this lead time. Other guidance stopped the NW trend. Euro decided to take it for 2 extra runs. I'm not buying it though. Hopefully I'm wrong and it gives a lot of folks the 1-2" the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the HRRR the RAP now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'll be shocked at more than an inch...The euro seems to rip up and ring out some moisture thanks to the nrn stream S/W...but I could see a virga storm overhead too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'll be shocked at more than an inch...The euro seems to rip up and ring out some moisture thanks to the nrn stream S/W...but I could see a virga storm overhead too. Like the one over DCA right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Can also easily see the flip on the Euro on wunderground at 21/24 hours. It's allowing more interaction between the north and south...again like the older GFS. There's two other easy tells in the next few hours. It's further south than the 0z Euro north of Chicago with that s/w. It's faster with the southern S/W. The two things we needed as mentioned yesterday to get better alignment so this can get drawn up more north. Looking at the water vapor, RAP and SPC I'll say the Euro was right there's a lobe of vorticity bumping down south of the red arrow and that allows for more interaction later on potentially. cannot say it's 100% right, but I think it has the right idea. The GFS etc were flatter with that feature so we ended up with a pretty linear shove later like you see on the HRRR. RAP/Euro carry that lobe a bit further back allowing for it to interact at the right time later on. Again, any timing change at all blows this up, but I think the Euro is on the right general track at least as it pertains to SE NE/Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Like the one over DCA right now lol Trust from down south: let this storm go hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Trust from down south: let this storm go hah Yeah models seem too aggressive in bringing the precip north into the dry air. You can see the monster vriga on KLWX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah models seem too aggressive in bringing the precip north into the dry air. You can see the monster vriga on KLWX radar. The precip the euro develops up and over us is in response to the s/w up in Minnesota right now. The dc stuff is a total whiff on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briz600 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ok I fixed my 4wd in my truck. I am ready for my <1" of snow now. At least it wont turn to rain like everything else this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The precip the euro develops up and over us is in response to the s/w up in Minnesota right now. The dc stuff is a total whiff on the euro There's two distinct areas of precip. NAM whiffs, but throws back more moisture towards LI/Coastal SNE overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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