Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 True...just seems like this ha sbeen decided for days, north trend not withstanding... If we had no NCEP and just the Euro this would have been of mild interest like my first post indicated....as a potential scrape for the cape. It gradually came north maybe overshooting a bit last night to settle on the multi-model, multi-day consensus. The only models to really jump were the American garbage, everything else stayed weak. That's the pattern we're in, next week looks similar. Without a good - NAO they develop and move off maybe glancing SE areas as we await the next warmup and cool down. This pattern has clearly gotten to me. I'm hoping for the last minute bump NW that we saw at 12z inside of 12 hours, plus the GFS and others are playing around with some weak pullback with the approaching trough. Dusting to 3" seems likely on the Cape, still a chance for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 yup...another bad winter here for sure. I know people can say that it is still mid-January but one can read the writing on the wall and it is clear. I mean how long has it taken for this "pattern change" to take place? I feel like we have been talking about it since right after the holiday storm, it's still not here and now we are talking about temps +10 again this weekend with bare ground by Sunday afternoon. Bad. I think we all know where the rest of this winter is heading. Well above normal temps...well below normal snowfall. This winters remind me of growing up in the mid-atlantic. A few advisory level, wet snows that melt completely in-between...temps in the upper 30's to mid-40;s right trough the heart on January. It's tough. Been up here 15 years now and these have been the worst back-to-back winters by far. It's like climo has shifted a few hundred miles north the past couple years. This does not feel like New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If we had no NCEP and just the Euro this would have been of mild interest like my first post indicated....as a potential scrape for the cape. It gradually came north maybe overshooting a bit last night to settle on the multi-model, multi-day consensus. The only models to really jump were the American garbage, everything else stayed weak. That's the pattern we're in, next week looks similar. Without a good - NAO they develop and move off maybe glancing SE areas as we await the next warmup and cool down. This pattern has clearly gotten to me. I'm hoping for the last minute bump NW that we saw at 12z inside of 12 hours, plus the GFS and others are playing around with some weak pullback with the approaching trough. Dusting to 3" seems likely on the Cape, still a chance for more. with euro op nw of its ens last nite, i would just think the N trend is done, could scoot back 30 miles Se, best shot is from the weak pullback from app trough imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 yup...another bad winter here for sure. I know people can say that it is still mid-January but one can read the writing on the wall and it is clear. I mean how long has it taken for this "pattern change" to take place? I feel like we have been talking about it since right after the holiday storm, it's still not here and now we are talking about temps +10 again this weekend with bare ground by Sunday afternoon. Bad. I think we all know where the rest of this winter is heading. Well above normal temps...well below normal snowfall. This winters remind me of growing up in the mid-atlantic. A few advisory level, wet snows that melt completely in-between...temps in the upper 30's to mid-40;s right trough the heart on January. It's tough. Been up here 15 years now and these have been the worst back-to-back winters by far. It's like climo has shifted a few hundred miles north the past couple years. This does not feel like New England. My buddy bought a new plow truck this year. His rationale was there's no way we'll get two bad winters in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 My buddy bought a new plow truck this year. His rationale was there's no way we'll get two bad winters in a row. just hoping that we don't get three in a row...he will get to use that truck nest year we hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 True...just seems like this ha sbeen decided for days, north trend not withstanding... Yeah this storm was a synoptic disaster...I was never sold on anything other than some light snow on the Cape. Sure, it could trend from Bermuda to 100 miles SE of the BM...but it wasn't coming much closer than that with the pig PV up to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 yup...another bad winter here for sure. I know people can say that it is still mid-January but one can read the writing on the wall and it is clear. I mean how long has it taken for this "pattern change" to take place? I feel like we have been talking about it since right after the holiday storm, it's still not here and now we are talking about temps +10 again this weekend with bare ground by Sunday afternoon. Bad. I think we all know where the rest of this winter is heading. Well above normal temps...well below normal snowfall. This winters remind me of growing up in the mid-atlantic. A few advisory level, wet snows that melt completely in-between...temps in the upper 30's to mid-40;s right trough the heart on January. It's tough. Been up here 15 years now and these have been the worst back-to-back winters by far. It's like climo has shifted a few hundred miles north the past couple years. This does not feel like New England. You can't just write it off. If you believed in the chance for a pattern change in the first place then you wouldn't be saying that. There are always things that can IMPLY pattern changes, but doesn't mean it's going to happen. Although what I just said is a completely obvious fact, people can't seem to knock it in their brain that these outlooks don't verify a lot of times. People have to relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah this storm was a synoptic disaster...I was never sold on anything other than some light snow on the Cape. Sure, it could trend from Bermuda to 100 miles SE of the BM...but it wasn't coming much closer than that with the pig PV up to our NW. True but if that PV wasn't so slow or there was some phasing to the south like you said yesterday then SE MA could've seen something more exciting. It's looking less and less likely to happen as models are coming to agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You can't just write it off. If you believed in the chance for a pattern change in the first place then you wouldn't be saying that. There are always things that can IMPLY pattern changes, but doesn't mean it's going to happen. Although what I just said is a completely obvious fact, people can't seem to knock it in their brain that these outlooks don't verify a lot of times. People have to relax. Yeah your right. Let me correct myself...I am not writing off the potential for some snow and cold. I think we will get more snow for sure. I am talking about the bigger picture that when it is all said and done...right now...it looks like we will end up above normal temps and below normal snow...potentially significantly so. I tend to get more depressed when the dead heart of winter is a huge let down because then is when it is usually cold and snowy enough to look and feel like winter for a few weeks at a time. I enjoy a late Feb snowbomb as much as anyone but even as those are occurring you know that the great meltdown will be soon to come. Now that we have had a huge January thaw, lost all the snowpack, and the ice on ponds..feb is coming and to me that is always the corner we turn towards spring...high sun-angle, more daylight...and the core of winter behind us. People on here argue over March but that's even worse. Getting closer to just hoping for everything to come together for one big one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 yup...another bad winter here for sure. I know people can say that it is still mid-January but one can read the writing on the wall and it is clear. I mean how long has it taken for this "pattern change" to take place? I feel like we have been talking about it since right after the holiday storm, it's still not here and now we are talking about temps +10 again this weekend with bare ground by Sunday afternoon. Bad. I think we all know where the rest of this winter is heading. Well above normal temps...well below normal snowfall. This winters remind me of growing up in the mid-atlantic. A few advisory level, wet snows that melt completely in-between...temps in the upper 30's to mid-40;s right trough the heart on January. It's tough. Been up here 15 years now and these have been the worst back-to-back winters by far. It's like climo has shifted a few hundred miles north the past couple years. This does not feel like New England. The pattern has and is changing dramatically....the results in terms of snowfall totals may or may not change substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 True but if that PV wasn't so slow or there was some phasing to the south like you said yesterday then SE MA could've seen something more exciting. It's looking less and less likely to happen as models are coming to agreement. It was mainly timing. This was always a SE New England deal. The question was a brush vs something more. 3 days ago most here wouldn't have given any shot of this giving a flake to the cape there was certainly zero talk of it. The GFS is always too fast, was hoping that the northern stream could compensate by digging more sw/slower providing the same alignment which it didn't. KTAN has about a 1% chance of Phil getting 8"...that sounds about right. 20% or so of 4"+ and I'd say that's also a good number. There's still a slight chance - 1 in 5 that this is something more for the Cape. Equal chance it ends up almost nothing with a really intense band on radar just offshore. We will see an attempt to draw moisture back in association with the northern stream. Going to be tough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 People on here argue over March but that's even worse. Getting closer to just hoping for everything to come together for one big one! Yeah I may not even bother when March comes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 The pattern has and is changing dramatically....the results in terms of snowfall totals may or may not change substantially. I don't think anyone doubted that. Some of us doubted that it was the promised land of winters. There's no denying what is modeled TODAY is not what most were hoping for or thought was going to happen when they were looking at progs a week or 10 days ago. They can deny that all they want, but it is what it is. I'll put Scott and Phil in the camp of the doubters. I think they both called it as a more favorable pattern, but "not" epic in their eyes. Phil also mentioned in one post that this was a cape cod type pattern, and that may be partially proven correct too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Weenies gon ween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The pattern has and is changing dramatically....the results in terms of snowfall totals may or may not change substantially. I agree 100% that the pattern has changed, but it has not changed the outcome of the weather...merely a different way of getting the same thing. Just like comparing this entire winter to last winter. The overall, global connections are completely different but we are ending up with a similar outcome. It has been just as warm this winter as last...just getting it in a different way. So we can all say that the pattern has changed but when will the weather change. January is well on its way to another month with positive temp departures and negative snowfall departures. When we get 10 days of below normal temps then the pattern change will have produced actual change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Weenies gon ween All about snowfall...its gotten pretty bad. I would have thought yesterday's snow for many would calm weenies, but it seems to have only made it worse. Like giving a drug attict just a pinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 All about snowfall...its gotten pretty bad. I would have thought yesterday's snow for many would calm weenies, but it seems to have only made it worse. Like giving a drug attict just a pinch.To be fair... 3 inches of snow in January is nothing. Its been a pathetic winter. And again, 3 inches with a seasonal total of no more than 9 inches in mid January is pathetic, especially considering that this is the 2nd did year (so far) in a row.I should not be happy with a 3 inch storm in New England in mid January, which had already melted doff sigificantly during the day it had fallen . Its easy for you to say sitting well outside the city at a high elevation and with a much higher total ytd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'll put Scott and Phil in the camp of the doubters. I think they both called it as a more favorable pattern, but "not" epic in their eyes. Phil also mentioned in one post that this was a cape cod type pattern, and that may be partially proven correct too. I agree that patterns can definitely be favorable. The rest of this month doesn't look that great, maybe the passage of a couple dulled clippers with one of them hopefully giving snow lovers something to rant about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I see more than 1-2" on the cape... at least 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not everyone is lacking this year. Nearly 30" have fallen in this area. The airport is +4.6" for the year. I think the ground has been bare once since late December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I saw this from DT yesterday...good stuff. **ALERT ** ** COMMENTS ON THE 18Z NAM Model..i dont care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro and GFS are onto something with Jan. 25th but it's still a ways out. Looks very similar to a system we got in mid December that left most snow lovers unhappy other than LE regions in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not everyone is lacking this year. Nearly 30" have fallen in this area. The airport is +4.6" for the year. I think the ground has been bare once since late December... Coming from someone at over 1000' ASL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not everyone is lacking this year. Nearly 30" have fallen in this area. The airport is +4.6" for the year. I think the ground has been bare once since late December... Yeah central mass to central CT is around average YTD with some areas slightly above. Most towns in that area are 23-32" or so. Somehow Kevin pulled a weenie 34" out lol but 25-30 is pretty common in those areas. Even southern NH has slightly less...totals are like 20" YTD there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Coming from someone at over 1000' ASL. He's right though. And he's +4.6 on average...so he averages higher to begin with...so elevation doesn't really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I see more than 1-2" on the cape... at least 2-4" I can agree with that. Maybe 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 He's right though. And he's +4.6 on average...so he averages higher to begin with...so elevation doesn't really matter. Unfortunately most in SNE don't live in Worcester county. The vast majority live within 495. Even more around 128. For this region, the winter has been subpar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Unfortunately most in SNE don't live in Worcester county. The vast majority live within 495. Even more around 128. For this region, the winter has been subpar You complain a lot. Enjoy the snow you get. We should have several chances for more in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Let's keep the posts on topic wrt the Cape snowfall. If people want to complain then take it to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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