Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Should be a decent fluff factor with this stuff...might help a bit out near CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro actually isn't terrible...it's .25" at HYA and .29" at CHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Final call: 1-4" on the Cape/Islands west to east. Coating to an inch back to GHG-TAN-UUU...nada NW of there. I could easily see pretty much nothing occurring west of the canal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 phil where the heck are you on the cape, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro actually isn't terrible...it's .25" at HYA and .29" at CHH It bumped north again a good deal between the 12 and 0z. Brian mentioned that it's NW of it's ensembles now. Final call: 1-4" on the Cape/Islands west to east. Coating to an inch back to GHG-TAN-UUU...nada NW of there. I could easily see pretty much nothing occurring west of the canal though. thanks Will. On a north wind the cutoff is going to be right around here, probably just to my SE into Sandwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Final call: 1-4" on the Cape/Islands west to east. Coating to an inch back to GHG-TAN-UUU...nada NW of there. I could easily see pretty much nothing occurring west of the canal though. What about 1-3 back to 91! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What about 1-3 back to 91! Stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 RGEM bumped the NW edge down towards DC and NJ but up here it's kept the fringe line the same, shifted the couple of inch amounts a bit further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Stay the course. Tickle Tickle Me Elmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 KTAN map, seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 KTAN map, seems reasonable. Is that for flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Is that for flakes? I think that's the 2nd biggest storm this winter down here, it's pretty exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 KTAN map, seems reasonable.Yeah that's a fair map - though im confused because Kevin said snow all the way to the NY border and 1-3" IHBY.The "wildcard" zone is out by the elbow. If there's some decent ratios...that area might pull a 3 or 4. That, and mild SST + arctic air creates some instability so there's an opportunity for a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think that's the 2nd biggest storm this winter down here, it's pretty exciting. I was joking, Its to bad that it did not stay further NW for some of you down there, This winter seems to not want to pan out so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah that's a fair map - though im confused because Kevin said snow all the way to the NY border and 1-3" IHBY. The "wildcard" zone is out by the elbow. If there's some decent ratios...that area might pull a 3 or 4. That, and mild SST + arctic air creates some instability so there's an opportunity for a bit more. I'm just hoping it's close Phil. IE, we have something to watch later tonight. LOL on the new GFS, snow back to the NY border along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I could see one of those Phil bands....those linear but sometimes wave band moving near CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Stay the course. Meteorology not modelology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Meteorology not modelologyHows that 34 you forecast for Friday looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 my guess is that the polar vortex isn't slower and that the n. stream energy isn't coming down much more sharply than forecast. i.e none of the 2 things will mentioned yesterday that would make this a snowier solution for sne, appear to be occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hows that 34 you forecast for Friday looking? At what lead time? 4-5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 my guess is that the polar vortex isn't slower and that the n. stream energy isn't coming down much more sharply than forecast. i.e none of the 2 things will mentioned yesterday that would make this a snowier solution for sne, appear to be occuring. Bold statement....what tipped you off??The 5 days worth of trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 my guess is that the polar vortex isn't slower and that the n. stream energy isn't coming down much more sharply than forecast. i.e none of the 2 things will mentioned yesterday that would make this a snowier solution for sne, appear to be occuring. Once this southern system was slowed down...that was it really. The math behind the models...whether it was the GFS being too aggressive with the northern s/w that had the southern system timed better, or a combination of the two..who knows, but the NCEP guidance, SREF, ensembles failed for a bit on that. The GFS has that clear tell of being a little too fast/lifts s/w's too much too soon....that was the difference between getting precip up north of DC before it got strung out, and it getting strung out well south of both places. Stepping back and looking at the progression of the Euro (I posted the 72 hour and 60 hour maps yesterday) where it went from a little precip off the Carolinas and gradually shifted north up through last nights run...always seems less prone to the NCEP over jump and then scale back. Figure in about 2-3 days this shifted 700 or so miles north, but it's about 100 miles too little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The GFS shows Absolutely NOTHING for us up to 192 hours out for the 4th run in a Row or so, and THEN shows 2 rain events. I might be done with this winter. I've got a dangerous 3-4 inch base that's meltable even in cold weather, Cold on the way for 10 days but No snow, and even if we get something from Wednesday through Monday (23-28) I'll be in LA. I'm kinda done. Watch Feb. be warm because we just wasted all the cold on the 2nd half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 The GFS shows Absolutely NOTHING for us up to 192 hours out for the 4th run in a Row or so, and THEN shows 2 rain events. I might be done with this winter. I've got a dangerous 3-4 inch base that's meltable even in cold weather, Cold on the way for 10 days but No snow, and even if we get something from Wednesday through Monday (23-28) I'll be in LA. I'm kinda done. Watch Feb. be warm because we just wasted all the cold on the 2nd half of January. Patience, we're told to have patience. Ghandi would have snapped after these last two winters. The end of the month warm up/potential cutter has been pretty well signaled for days. I do think we're rewarded with more cold and dry after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The GFS shows Absolutely NOTHING for us up to 192 hours out for the 4th run in a Row or so, and THEN shows 2 rain events. I might be done with this winter. I've got a dangerous 3-4 inch base that's meltable even in cold weather, Cold on the way for 10 days but No snow, and even if we get something from Wednesday through Monday (23-28) I'll be in LA. I'm kinda done. Watch Feb. be warm because we just wasted all the cold on the 2nd half of January. This has been a winter straight out of the 1980's here in eastern NE....all we need is Bill Crosby sledding down a hill in the 3" of melting glop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Almost 600 posts about this... blech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 "Bold statement....what tipped you off?? The 5 days worth of trends?" lol. well ray, considering will posted that yesterday evening, it was things to look for that would cause this to CONTinue go north further as the SW drops down into the plains finally. He mentioned if it the polar vortex can be slowed down it could tick nw or if the sw dropping into the plains was stronger and more amp'd. the 5 day trend was north by like 600 miles just not enuf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 lol. well ray, considering will posted that yesterday evening, it was things to look for that would cause this to CONTinue go north further as the SW drops down into the plains finally. He mentioned if it the polar vortex can be slowed down it could tick nw or if the sw dropping into the plains was stronger and more amp'd. the 5 day trend was north by like 600 miles just not enuf. True...just seems like this ha sbeen decided for days, north trend not withstanding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 arctic front looks cool on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 True...just seems like this ha sbeen decided for days, north trand not withstanding... ya it was a long shot. no -NAO blocking , i mean it was just weenie dreams, i'm just glad i got 4 inches down yesterday, i mean its not much, but it looks like winter and it should thru saturday so i guess i'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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