OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This is a potential bomb on the NAM OSU. At various times over the last week just about every operational model developed this low. It's coming out of Mexico and the deep SW, two areas that over the years are poorly modeled. I suspect we see this trend continue in the other models tonight. This is very close to a major east coast storm (On the NAM) And I might add 48 or so hours ago this event that now will extend into NH and ME was a total miss even in SNE. right but they haven't had any anything of significant for anyone even close to SNE or the northeast for the past 5 maybe even 7 days? I wasn't trying to be an ass...I honestly thought the thread was some of kind of sarcasm after that thread was started for a coating a couple weeks ago. And we have a BOS met screaming blizzard? Has everyone lost their mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't usually get all that excited, this one has had my interest for a few days. I just think it has serious potential. If we see the other models follow this trend tonight I think it's game on, flags flying. The NAM is outside of it's prime window at 36 hours, but it's already done the damage by then which was evident very early in the run. We'll see what the others show. If the NAM initial panels prove to be right, we can probably disregard the disintegration of the powerful s/w as it exits the coast in favor of a system that travels further north. Would be a nice snow event fro VA to Boston. Again we'll see, but interesting. Need more model support tonight. GEFS had a scrape, SREF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 right but they haven't had any anything of significant for anyone even close to SNE or the northeast for the past 5 maybe even 7 days? I wasn't trying to be an ass...I honestly thought the thread was some of kind of sarcasm after that thread was started for a coating a couple weeks ago. And we have a BOS met screaming blizzard? Has everyone lost their mind? I'm pretty sure yesterdays GGEM was a pretty big hit. This has a lot of potential for SE New England, JMHO but I won't get excited until after the rest of the 0z suite. The NAM sucks at placing SWs. If we see the GFS/GGEM/Euro similar within 24 hours I suspect they'll be stronger than the NAM as it almost always dampens out S/ws too fast as they approach the coast. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 ackwaves special on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Getting there on this run but not enough I don't think. NAM was the first to catch on to this current storm coming north...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 if that can come further NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Trend is our friend. 00z at 51 hours 18z at 57 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 if that can come further NW.. We should see shortly whether this is the real deal. The main difference between the Euro and the NAM is that the Euro held energy further back into Mexico tonight into the morning. It's also not seeing the energy coming out of BC...the models that scrape us have that, the Euro not so much which is why in the end it obliterated this system. We'll have the answer shortly, the Euro may be a little slow in the sw but it's pretty hard to fathom it missed that much aloft. Tempered optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That thing isn't hitting us....its a total meat grinder to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A couple inches for Phil on the NAM. Too bad its the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That thing isn't hitting us....its a total meat grinder to the north. I think there's an outside shot for a little precip along the Cape and Islands, but that's about it. Like you said, there's just no room thanks to the northern stream. There will probably be a mean deformation band on the northern extent of the precip shield though. Arctic CAA for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think there's an outside shot for a little precip along the Cape and Islands, but that's about it. Like you said, there's just no room thanks to the northern stream. There will probably be a mean deformation band on the northern extent of the precip shield though. Arctic CAA for us. Yeah I wouldn't rule out any weenie snow on the Cape...but its hard to see that doing much of anything of consequence...even down there. But never say never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 A couple inches for Phil on the NAM. Too bad its the NAM. That thing isn't hitting us....its a total meat grinder to the north. If the s/w the NAM has coming out of Canada is real, it could hit SE New England. Not even the RAP really supports the NAM in regard to the energy in BC at this point at quick glance. That's about as close as I'll look before the other guidance because..well it's pointless with everything else coming out now, without it, it gets smooshed. Like you said Will, never say never, the key IMO is the northern s/w in the flow, need that to be a real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 RGEM ejecting the energy faster than the last run +1 Also has a weak low with the s/w in BC +1 But doesn't to me on the B&W that it's as aggressive digging up that way. We'll see in the next panel or two. If correct that's good for the south, matters not for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 saki, is this what you were referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 saki, is this what you were referring to? Yeah, RGEM way north too. I'd like to see the GFS come around too, and of course the Euro which I expect it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 call me whatever you want but im really feeling this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 call me whatever you want but im really feeling this storm It's going to hit a wall unless we can get the NAM s/w to be a real deal and help to back the flow up north. Tracing it back it appears to originate out of AK tonight.... The energy coming out of northern Mexico - the models particularly the Euro etc appear to have botched that. But that alone means squat for us, without the flow backing we'll get to read happy weenie posts in the deep south with that alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS is going to be on the bus I think. Little tough to tell at 12 hours, but....appears to have made the needed moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS is going to be on the bus I think. Little tough to tell at 12 hours, but....appears to have made the needed moves. If you sniff this out and it turns into something, I'm buying a round (or 6) at the BBC...Isn't that right near you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 If you sniff this out and it turns into something, I'm buying a round (or 6) at the BBC...Isn't that right near you? Heh, yeah, we spend quite a bit of time up there. Kids like it, and the dads like it later at night. Good place to watch a game. It's coming. The question is how far north, and ugh...will it be cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Heh, yeah, we spend quite a bit of time up there. Kids like it, and the dads like it later at night. Good place to watch a game. It's coming. The question is how far north, and ugh...will it be cold enough i don't think temps would be a concern unless the whole entire flow is f-ed up as modeled. it's a scrape job right now on the NAM/GFS - not sure how much more room there is though with the upper air flow and that arctic boundary rushing ESE. worth watching though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SE mass special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'll be up working - I expect the Euro to do a total 180 tonight and come to the the stronger solutions. So we know the energy down south IS enough to develop a major low. The question is how strong is the s/w going to be coming down out of Canada? The timing needs to be perfect and it needs to dive a little deeper/west than it is now, back the flow, perhaps even allow for a Ginxy type storm. I haven't had anything in a couple of years that had my interest. This could turn out to be nothing, but I like what i see for particularly SE New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 i don't think temps would be a concern unless the whole entire flow is f-ed up as modeled. it's a scrape job right now on the NAM/GFS - not sure how much more room there is though with the upper air flow and that arctic boundary rushing ESE. worth watching though. Ironically the arctic air that everyone wanted is what is going to screw this up from being a big storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 i don't think temps would be a concern unless the whole entire flow is f-ed up as modeled. it's a scrape job right now on the NAM/GFS - not sure how much more room there is though with the upper air flow and that arctic boundary rushing ESE. worth watching though. One more run - or a model like the GGEM or Euro that I'd expect to do better with the Canadian energy really going gangbusters and I'll be really excited. The system bends back as it interacts with the northern energy. I hesitate to use the term phase, but if the energy up north is legit, the normal bias of weakening the southern ULL too quickly probably is in play with the other models...I think we have a legit shot at a major system out there at the last minute. Also, look at it down towards SNJ and DC. Last run 6 hours ago nada, this run warning snows. I just see the potential for a stronger s/w out of the north country that both bends the flow allowing this to track further north while also allowing for a partial phase. Again...need another run to make sure this is not a multi-model intilization error up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS has a hard time getting BOS above 20F on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 "00z gfs coming closer to New England blizzard" - Tim Kelley. He seems somewhat optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 "00z gfs coming closer to New England blizzard" - Tim Kelley. He seems somewhat optimistic. If he calls this...boy, best met in NE. Usually when he harps on something, it is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS has a hard time getting BOS above 20F on Friday. it's really cold. ongoing CAA through basically the whole day...850s dip to -18C by the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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