Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Sref's dis as tah only if ones expectations were unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yawn, nothing to see here unless youre on the cape. For everyone else, move along to next storm. 22nd? Only chance I could see anything happening is if the GFS refuses to cave and the EURO comes into agreement then maybe some SHSN to BOS and a coating-inch but even that seems unlikely. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 only if ones expectations were unrealistic. This one has the potential to exceed even the lowest of expectations (on the wrong side). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 here are the ind 21z srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 0z vs. 12z NAM seems less favorable at h5... lead northern energy rounding base of trough is stronger, and the following pulse (that would potentially interact with our storm) is weaker slightly north vs. 18z but south vs. 12z this one is slipping away... seems a stretch even for watch area down in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ultimate dc screwjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 21s snow probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Decent inch probs for bos but I think we would likely be sniffing out some subsidence that far nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Decent inch probs for bos but I think we would likely be sniffing out some subsidence that far nw My opinion is we see nada.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM pulls a Billy Cundiff for Baltimore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 My opinion is we see nada.... I agree weenie flakes at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 My opinion is we see nada.... The NAM almost came towards the GFS, it's just too weak with the northern stream and a bit slower in the south...and that's all it takes for an essential total miss. You can see the effect of the timing on the NAM around DC...precip tries to lift up, doesn't, then finally does off NJ but not in time for us or them. We'll see, worth keeping an eye on. 72 hours ago the Euro had this missing by 750 miles. Now it misses by 50-100. Would rather take the 700! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Deja vu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 srefs are in good agreement for 1-3...best odds out near CHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Nah....1-3" near I-91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey, blizzard still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The title change is most fitting............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 the hi-res weenie nam has a better than 1/4 inch qpf out at CHH...but i treat that model like the hrrr. sometimes it nails something other times it should just be stuffed into Bryce's Diaper Genie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 srefs are in good agreement for 1-3...best odds out near CHH They were in good agreement on 4 or 8" 6 hours ago. They suck with this one. Ginxy I hope so. Going skiing with Eddie the yeti, Sunday river got 5" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Feel bad for the dc crowd. What a lousy situation. They were close to the event and have not had many chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Feel bad for the dc crowd. What a lousy situation. They were close to the event and have not had many chances. If the gfs goes se, that was a lousy call from LWX. Srn zones are a different story, but WSW for DC and B-more? We'll see shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 They were in good agreement on 4 or 8" 6 hours ago. They suck with this one. Ginxy I hope so. Going skiing with Eddie the yeti, Sunday river got 5" today. 4 or 8"? i think they had strong probs (90%) for 1", like 40-50% for 4" and 10% for 8". I think the most i saw on any single model run was a NAM run that had like .55" qpf at CHH - i don't feel like there was ever a great signal for this to really dump on the Cape. with all the good forcing well to the SE and this thing just rocketing NE, it was a long shot that this would do much more than put down a little bit of fluff, imho. it won't take much to drop and an inch or two though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 LWX has been consistently garbage for my time down there so no surprise here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 4 or 8"? i think they had strong probs (90%) for 1", like 40-50% for 4" and 10% for 8". I think the most i saw on any single model run was a NAM run that had like .55" qpf at CHH - i don't feel like there was ever a great signal for this to really dump on the Cape. with all the good forcing well to the SE and this thing just rocketing NE, it was a long shot that this would do much more than put down a little bit of fluff, imho. it won't take much to drop and an inch or two though. They were really bad, certainly no more skillful than anything else. Rgem/nam to me are total misses because they're likely overestimating the precip on the NW side of the heavier band. Verbatim they'd be a total whiff for the cape aside of flurries as currently modeled. IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Wrt dc forecasts its tuff to beat usedtobe's calls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey, blizzard still on the table.Bad JuJu. He rarely does that, Takes balls, not like he is JB or something. Most are afraid to once and a while go for it. Did not miss by much it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Winter storm watches posted for the Jersey shore - 4 inches that far north and west seems like a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The title change is most fitting............ I was surprised to see I am pretty close to you in snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think the Cape can fair pretty well in this. I think it might be another Dec 20th 2010 situation in the fact that the forecast amounts will begin to increase as the storm rages on and as a killer band backs into the Cape and Plymouth counties. Nantuket, MA sees 6"+ from this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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