Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Potent OES down there do not underestimate We will have to see. Sometimes the sinking motion to the NW of these offshore lows can limit that development. Not always but something I'm thinking about. And the flow is only "ok" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 bummer how 22 is going by the way side. We need a big one during these next three weeks to validate this potential.Patience grasshopper. Remember the lessons of the past, signals come, signals go and then all of a sudden everybody is talking about a biggie. Ask the NC mountain moonshiners what they were told 3 days ago would be their weather this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ill take Noyes for now no offense. He's been deadly this winter Hell, I'm even more bullish than Noyes down here. He has the same for your area as my thoughts. AWT. D-1" W to E. Still think 1-2" S&E of i-95/128 and 2-4" for CC/Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ill take Noyes for now no offense. He's been deadly this winterNoyes had D-1 from northern stream , lol , seems about right as of tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Weenies remain flacid past the canal. Sorry kev.Ill take Noyes for now no offense. He's been deadly this winter Lol...you mean the map that has a dusting in C CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ill take Noyes for now no offense. He's been deadly this winter LOL ok. A coating or a little more of 500mb fluff originating is possible, but not much more IMO. You'll take Noyes because he fits your weenie thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Lol...you mean the map that has a dusting in C CT? Ha, is that what he has? Sounds right..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 He has up to an inch up to S NH. Earlier i was told I'd have cirrus and hope that blocked sun from melting my snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 AWT..looks like many of us will be shovelling Friday morning http://t.co/fySTRBH0 I'm not sure I would shovel a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Patience grasshopper. Remember the lessons of the past, signals come, signals go and then all of a sudden everybody is talking about a biggie. Ask the NC mountain moonshiners what they were told 3 days ago would be their weather this week. Oh yes sir, Feb is where its at for big ones, I was speaking how many may feel, above climo snowfall for most........archie 25th or so perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 My thoughts before 00z and bed shortly are 1-3 back to i91 and 3-6 Capewide with more If the 00 and 6 z community continues backing NW . If they go east overnight then we can adjust in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ha, is that what he has? Sounds right..lol. Well, a big part of Noyes disco is that he has very little confidence at all in his forecast... maybe 10%... and he is saying it is pretty much anything could happen right now. To a cetain poster in Tolland this equals "It is coming west, days and days, feet and feet" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 good luck eastern friends hope all children feel better so dads may sleep peacefully ciao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 He has up to an inch up to S NH. Earlier i was told I'd have cirrus and hope that blocked sun from melting my snow I'll stick with that call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well, a big part of Noyes disco is that he has very little confidence at all in his forecast... maybe 10%... and he is saying it is pretty much anything could happen right now. To a cetain poster in Tolland this equals "It is coming west, days and days, feet and feet" I could see the edge of synoptic snows briefly to I-95 in Mass...like very light stuff that last a few hours before heading east. I think it will be difficult for anything beyond that. Maybe a coating or something. This is one to watch for the Cape. If there were to be changes it would have to be the energy coming out of Canada. If that is sharper, than it could pull moisture back...I just think it's a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Matt makes great points, but I have no idea if it matters this time. I mean if the southern system trails GFS guidance even if the GFS is right aloft all we end up with is a system that gets sheared and misses by a big margin under us. I just have no clue which camp is right, but it's hard to go against the king. These are all great, but may be meaningless In technical considerations, there are a few things worthy of noting: The northern stream disturbance is intense, this favors at least some northward tug of moisture. There is little evidence of warm or moist advection of air through any significant column of the atmosphere - that is a negative for snow production. The past several systems to emerge off the eastern US coast have developed quicker than forecast. The past several systems to emerge off the eastern US have verified farther north than forecast. The weighting of all ensemble solutions is north - that is, more members are north than along or south of the current forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Matt makes great points, but I have no idea if it matters this time. I mean if the southern system trails GFS guidance even if the GFS is right aloft all we end up with is a system that gets sheared and misses by a big margin under us. I just have no clue which camp is right, but it's hard to go against the king. These are all great, but may be meaningless In technical considerations, there are a few things worthy of noting: The northern stream disturbance is intense, this favors at least some northward tug of moisture. There is little evidence of warm or moist advection of air through any significant column of the atmosphere - that is a negative for snow production. The past several systems to emerge off the eastern US coast have developed quicker than forecast. The past several systems to emerge off the eastern US have verified farther north than forecast. The weighting of all ensemble solutions is north - that is, more members are north than along or south of the current forecast track. Yeah and that applies for your area especially. A C-1" is certainly not out of the question here, but that's nuisance stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 For kicks and giggles was just looking at the RAP simulations vs the NAM. Nothing at all alike later on, RAP much further north in line with the earlier NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You'll take Noyes because he fits your weenie thoughts. Blizz would never do something like that. Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Blizz would never do something like that. Never. Uncertainty cuts both ways. It would not surprise me at all to see this go OTS this run, likewise there would be no surprise to see it turn into a larger storm in SE NE. There's justifications for both, IMO there's so many moving parts this one is best left to the consensus of the models after this run tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 My thoughts before 00z and bed shortly are 1-3 back to i91 and 3-6 Capewide with more If the 00 and 6 z community continues backing NW . If they go east overnight then we can adjust in the morning The KFS must have some algorithm that takes a blend of all forecasts, especially the snowiest ones, and then increases the snowiest model by over 50%, while at the same time exponentially increasing the spatial extent of the snowfall. And regardless of where the storm looks to be, the KFS has never issued a forecast that does not include some snow for Tolland. Like tonight's call of 1-3" back to 91 instead of 395 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 My thoughts before 00z and bed shortly are 1-3 back to i91 and 3-6 Capewide with more If the 00 and 6 z community continues backing NW . If they go east overnight then we can adjust in the morning not likely but good luck.. Sref are ugly Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 0z RAP would say that a compromise between the whiff op EURO and the op GFS are in order. I'll take a coating to 2" on the Cape, maybe 3" on the outer cape. BTW, just saw the SREFs too...LOL. a few hours ago it was giving probabilities for 12" of snow in SE MA. Nice work. I gather there are some new members mixed in there, not sure incorporating the WRF is going to prove fruitful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 they look inline with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 they look inline with the euro. Not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not surprising. Yeah but which Euro? The 72 and 60 were pretty big misses...is it going back that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 the euro ensm. scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Whiff outside of cape. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Sref's dis as tah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Whiff outside of cape. Next. It'd be great and meaningful to say the NAM is more amped this run vs the 18z if it didn't miss us by half a country at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.